BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONISATION IN THE GREEK REGIONS

This paper examines the degree of synchronicity in business cycles in Greek regions associated with specific spatial and economic characteristics that explain, to a large extent, synchronisation dynamics. We conducted an analysis of almost 30 years’ (1980-2008) worth of data at the NUTSIII level (prefectures). We conclude that prefectures are more synchronised with the NUTSII regions than the national level, accentuating a regional (NUTSII) border effect. Moreover, the intensification of the integration process and the free operation of markets seem to diachronically affect the structural characteristics of the Greek regions and the geography of cyclical synchronisation. Our study revealed a two-stage integration in which in the first stage they are detected urbanisation economies, while in the second one localisation economies. The metropolitan region, apart from its prominent position in economic growth, shows a confined level of business synchronisation with the other regions, stressing Greece’s pattern of economic and structural dualism.

Trade, Industrial Dissimilarity, FDI and Business Cycle Co-movements: EC3SLS Evidence from Eurozone Economies

This article uses simultaneous equations error component three-stage least squares (EC3SLS) panel data technique to find the direct and indirect impacts of trade, industrial dissimilarity and FDI on the business cycle synchronisation of Eurozone economies. The period of analysis is 1990–2009. These are the major findings: (a) trade, industrial dissimilarity and FDI have both direct and indirect effects on the business cycle synchronisation of sample economies; (b) EC3SLS estimates show that closer trade ties among these Eurozone countries have led to more synchronised business cycle co-movements, because common disturbances are more prevalent and intra-industry trade dominates; (c) the bilateral FDI flows have served as a source of destabilisation rather than a source of synchronisation; (d) industry-specific shocks have almost lost their importance both in terms of generating more trade and in terms of raising the output correlation of sample countries; (e) trade intensity and FDI flows are positively and significantly correlated, thereby suggesting that more FDI encourages more trade and vice-versa; (f) trade shows a negative relationship with industrial dissimilarity, which implies that bilateral trade in these countries promotes similar industrial structures; and finally, (g) these economies characterise intra-industry trade patterns, as expected in the case of these highly integrated Eurozone economies. Although the results show the presence of intra-industry trade types, these economies have diversified their production processes at the higher income levels. JEL: E32, F02, F10, F11, F15, C33

THE ENDOGENEITY OF BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONISATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

This paper investigates the endogeneity hypothesis of optimal currency area (OCA) criterion, that is, business cycles synchronisation, in a panel of Southern African Development Community (SADC) member countries, for the period 1994–2016. Using a Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), the study finds that, amongst other factors, trade induces business cycles comovement. This finding lends support to the endogeneity hypothesis of OCA theory.