How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis.

Abstract Background: Novel coronavirus was named as SARS-CoV-2 is a transmissible viral disease that has rapidly stroke around the world and is currently a major thread for developing and under poverty level countries by the World Bank and WHO's prediction. Without inventing vaccination or the proper treatment, how we control a faster infectious disease like SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 is one of the most admitted questions with which our developed civilization faces right now.At the same time, some policies termed as \isolation", \quarantine",\lock-down" and \social distancing" would give a stunning direction to control the epidemic outbreak.Methods: In this paper, we developed a novel theoretical model named \Social Distancing SEIQR model" to control the spread of infection by combining both quarantine and social distancing explicitly based on the real cases that observed where medical equipment and others resources are limited.Results: Our modelling basic reproduction number R0 is almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh.A linear regression polynomial fit result showed that our model fitted well to the reported COVID-19 cases data for Bangladesh.Conclusion: Our model will help to nd some strong strategies for controlling faster from spreading the virus and protect the nation when a country has limited medical resources.

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How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries : a mathematical and statistical analysis.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-20294/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Atiqur Chowdhury ◽

K M Ariful Kabir ◽

Jun Tanimoto

Keyword(s):

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Viral Disease ◽

Poverty Level ◽

Accurate Predictor ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The World Bank ◽

Polynomial Fit ◽

The World ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background: COVID-19 is a transmissible viral disease that has spread around the world rapidly and is currently a significant thread to developing and impoverished country by the World Bank and WHO’s prediction. Without inventing vaccination or the proper treatment, how we control the transmission of the COVID-19 is one of the most important questions with which peoples are facing right now . By the WHO’s guidelines, some policies termed as isolation, quarantine, lockdown, and social distancing would give a stunning direction to control the epidemic outbreak. Methods: In this paper, we developed a mathematical model named “Social distancing SEIQR model” to reduce the basic reproduction number R0 by combining both quarantine and social distancing parameters based on the real cases where medical equipment and other resources are limited. Results: Our modeling basic reproduction number R 0 is an almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Our modeling basic reproduction number R0 is an almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Our study result showed, our model fitted well with the numerically simulated results to the reported COVID-19 cases data for Bangladesh by a linear regression polynomial fit analysis. Conclusion: Our model will help to find strategies to reduce the human-to-human transmission of the virus and protect the nation when a country has limited medical resources.

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Tackling the Pandemic COVID-19: The Bangladesh Perspective

10.20944/preprints202004.0384.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Md. Taimur Islam ◽

Anup Kumar Talukder ◽

Md. Nurealam Siddiqui ◽

Tofazzal Islam

Keyword(s):

Health Workers ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Viral Disease ◽

Limited Resources ◽

Protective Equipment ◽

Epidemic Outbreak ◽

First Case ◽

The World ◽

The Government ◽

Novel Coronavirus

An outbreak of a pandemic COVID-19 disease caused by a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has posed a serious threat to human health and the economy of the whole world. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, which has also come under the attack of this viral disease. This perspective report aimed to describe the responses of Bangladesh to tackle the COVID-19, particularly on how Bangladesh is dealing with this novel viral disease with limited resources. The first case of a COVID-19 patient was detected in Bangladesh on March 8, 2020. Since then, a total of 2,144 peoples are officially reported as COVID-19 infected with 84 deaths. To combat the COVID-19, the government has taken various steps to tackle the epidemic outbreak of it such as diagnosis of the suspected cases, quarantine of doubted people and isolation of infected patients, local or regional lockdown, grant general leave from all offices for staying home of people, increase public awareness and enforce social distancing and so on. In addition, to address the socio-economic situations, the government announced several financial stimulus packages of about USD 11.17 billion. However, very limited diagnostic facilities, health workers, resources such as hospital beds, personal protective equipment, intensive care unit, and ventilators in the hospitals along with limited public unawareness are the major challenges for Bangladesh to tackle the situation effectively. This report described the responses of Bangladesh to tackle the COVID-19 and discusses prevailing challenges to mitigate this highly contagious disease with limited resources.

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