Establishment of a Predictive Model for Factors Related to Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) after Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy (PCNL)

Background: Percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) is a primary treatment method for renal stones, but infection is a very common postoperative complication. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is a stage of the infection process and a very important early clinical manifestation of sepsis, so identifying the risk factors associated with SIRS after PCNL is important for ensuring patient safety and preventing sepsis.Objective: To analyze the risk factors for SIRS after PCNL, identify the predictive factors, and perform risk factor analysis.Methodology: Between September 2016 and September 2017, 352 patients who were diagnosed with renal stones and treated with PCNL were included in this study. The patients were divided into two groups according to whether SIRS occurred. Univariate analysis was performed on the related risk factors, including patient age; gender; body mass index; urine culture; number, types and quantity of rental stones; diabetes; blood glucose; complications; hospital stay; residual stones; and Guy’s degree. Then, logistic regression was used to perform multivariate analysis and establish a predictive model.Results: A total of 352 patients with renal stones were treated with PCNL, and 106 patients (30.1%) developed SIRS after surgery. Operative time, preoperative fever and diabetes were found to be risk factors, and the logistic regression results indicated that diabetes (OR=2.049, 95%CI 1.008~4.166) and operative time (OR=1.011, 95%CI 1.003~1.019) could be entered into the regression equation. Therefore, the predictive regression model was P=1/[1+e-(-2.097+0.712 diabetes + 0.012 operative time)].Conclusion: Diabetes and operative time are independent risk factors for SIRS after PCNL, so the probability of SIRS after PCNL can be determined according to these two indicators.