Analysis of first four moderate geomagnetic storms of the 2015 year

This essay investigates of first four moderate geomagnetic activities (04 January storm, 07 January storm, 17 February storm, and 24 February storm) of 2015 in the 24th solar cycle. It tries to understand these storms with the aid of the zonal geomagnetic indices. It predicts the zonal geomagnetic indices (Dst, ap, AE) of the storms by an artificial neural network model. The phenomena that occurred in January and February are discussed on the solar wind parameters (Bz, E, P, N, v, T) and the zonal geomagnetic indices obtained from NASA. In the study, after glancing at the 2015-year general appearance, binary correlations of the variables are indicated by the covariance matrix, and the hierarchical cluster of the variables are presented by the dendrogram. The artificial neural network model is governed by the physical principles in the paper. The model uses the solar wind parameters as inputs and the zonal geomagnetic indices as outputs. The causality principle forms the models by cause-effect association. Back propagation algorithm is specified as Levenberg–Marquardt (trainlm) and 35 neural numbers are utilized in the artificial neural network. The neural network model predicts the Dst, ap, and AE indices of January and February geomagnetic storms with an accuracy that deserves discussion. Estimating the geomagnetic activities may support interplanetary works.