Risk Analysis of Tunnel Water and Mud Inrush Using Interpretive Structural Modeling and Fault Tree

Water and mud inrush is a common geological hazard in tunnel construction. Risk analysis of tunnel water and mud inrush has always been an important subject. In order to avoid the geological hazard, this paper presents a risk analysis model of tunnel water and mud inrush. The model combines the interpretive structural modeling method (ISM) and fault tree analysis (FTA). Relying on the Qinyu tunnel in the Weiwu expressway project, water and mud inrush risk factors are obtained by using ISM. Fundamental risk factors include formation lithology, attitude of stratum, strata combination, topography and geomorphology, geological structure and weather. ISM core risk factors are used as FTA basic events. Fuzzy importance of FTA basic events is obtained by using fuzzy interval calculation. The results show that geological structure is the primary risk factor causing Qinyu tunnel water and mud inrush. The model achieves qualitative and quantitative analysis of tunnel water and mud inrush. It accurately determines the main factors affecting the tunnel water and mud inrush, which is conducive to accident prevention.

Research on the Application of GIS Technology Combined with RBFNN-GA Algorithm in the Delineation of Geological Hazard Prone Areas

With the rapid development of the economy and society, geological disasters such as landslides, collapses, and mudslides have shown an intensifying trend, seriously endangering the safety of people’s lives and property, and affecting the sustainable development of the economy and society. Aiming at the problems of merging different data layers and determining the weighting of data stacking in the statistical analysis model based on GIS technology in the evaluation of the risk of geological disasters, this study proposes a logistic regression model combined with the RBFNN-GA algorithm, that is, the determination of the occurrence of geological disasters. The fusion coefficient (CF value) with the RBFNN-GA algorithm model, and with the help of SPSS statistical analysis software, solves the problem of factor selection, heterogeneous data merging, and weighting of each data layer in the risk assessment. In the experimental stage, this study adopts the method of geological hazard certainty coefficients to carry out the sensitivity analysis of the geological hazards in the study area. Using homogeneous grid division, the spatial quantitative evaluation of the risk of geological disasters is realized, and at the same time, the results of the spatial quantitative evaluation of the risk of geological disasters are tested according to the latest landslide points in the region. The existing classification mainly depends on the acquisition of land use/cover information or the processing method of the acquired information, but the existing information acquisition will be limited by time, space, and spectral resolution. The results show that the number of landslide points per unit area in the extremely unstable zone and the unstable zone is 0.0395 points/km2 and 0.0251 points/km2, respectively, which is much higher than 0.0038 points/km2 in the stable zone, indicating the evaluation results and actual landslide conditions.

Risk assessment of geological disaster in the region of Primorsko Municipality

Risk assessment methodology is described in detail and applied for assessing the geological hazard for potential landslides and earthquakes. This methodology follows the guidelines of ISO 31010 and the JRC recommendations, and is applied for the first time in Bulgaria. The obtained results have high practical applicability. The flexibility of the methodology allows the final result to be presented as either a risk matrix or risk profiles. It depends on the specific tasks, issues and scientific problems that need to be solved.

Research on Geological Disaster Forecast Method Based on PCA Structure BP Model

The BP neural network prediction method constructed by PCA and the geological hazard prediction method based on the MM5 numerical model were used to establish geological hazard classification short-term objective forecast models. The calculation results show that these two objective forecast methods have a good fitting effect on historical samples. The independent sample’s trial report effect is also good; based on the above two objective forecasting methods, through correction, the comprehensive forecast product is finally obtained.