On forecasting cyclone movement using TOVS data

The tracks of three cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal and one over Arabian Sea during 1998 have been analysed using the TOVS data received at Chennai from NOAA satellites. Midtropospheric warmness between 700 and 400 hPa levels which protrudes about 300 to 700 km ahead of the storm acts as precursor to foreshadow the storm movement and predict the landfall about 6 to 24 hrs in advance. This technique has successfully predicted even the peculiar southward movement of Bay storm (28 November to 7 December, 1996).

Atmospheric boundary layer during northeast monsoon over Tamilnadu and neighbourhood - A study using TOVS data

Thermodynamic structure of atmospheric boundary layer during October - December covering southwest and northeast monsoon activities over interior Tamilnadu (ITN), coastal Tamilnadu (CTN) and adjoining Bay of Bengal (BOB) has been studied using TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data of 1996-98. Heights of neutral stratified mixed layer, cloud layer and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have been estimated through available standard pressure level data. Highest PBL occurs during active northeast monsoon. Cloud layer thickness during weak northeast monsoon over interior Tamilnadu is significantly higher than that over coastal Tamilnadu and also over Bay of Bengal. Convective stability (instability) of the atmosphere in 850-700 hPa layer is associated with weak / withdrawal (active) phase of northeast monsoon. One of the plausible reasons for subdued rainfall activity during weak northeast monsoon over interior Tamilnadu could be convective instability seen over this region in 850-700 hPa layer. But the same is absent in CTN and BOB where no rainfall activity exists during weak monsoon phase. Virtual temperature lapse rate in 850-700 hPa layer exceeding (less than) 6oK/km is associated with active (weak) phase of northeast monsoon over the interior, coastal Tamilnadu and Bay of Bengal.

Paralomis White, 1856 (Crustacea: Decapoda: Anomura) from India, with morphological variability in Paralomis indica Alcock & Anderson, 1899

Deep-water king crabs of the genus Paralomis White, 1856 collected during three cruises of the Fishery Oceanographic Research Vessel Sagar Sampada in the western Bay of Bengal (528–777 m depths), one cruise in the eastern Bay of Bengal off Great Nicobar Island (337 m depth), and four cruises in the southeastern Arabian Sea (315–1245 m) were identified. They are referred to Paralomis ceres Macpherson, 1989, recorded for the first time from Indian waters and P. indica Alcock & Anderson, 1899, reported for the first time from the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. In addition, this study reports the morphological variability among the P. indica populations in the shape of the carapace and dorsal rostral spines, nature of the branchial and cardiac regions and abdominal marginal spines, and the relative lengths of pereopods 2–4. Mitochondrial Cytochrome oxidase I (594 base pairs) and 16S rRNA (503 bp) gene sequences of P. ceres and P. indica (602 and 497 bp, respectively) revealed that they formed distinct lineages. A key to the Indian Ocean species of Paralomis is provided.

Cloud climatology of the Indian Ocean based on ship observations

Surface cloud data based on synoptic observations made by Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) during the period 1951-98 were used to prepare the seasonal and annual cloud climatology of the Indian Ocean. The analysis has been carried out by separating the long-term trends, decadal and inter-annual components from the monthly cloud anomaly time series at each 5° × 5° grids. Maximum zone of total and low cloud cover shifts from equator to northern parts of India during the monsoon season. During the monsoon season (June-September), maximum total cloud cover exceeding 70% and low cloud cover exceeding 50% are observed over north Bay of Bengal. Maximum standard deviation of total and low cloud cover is observed near the equator and in the southern hemisphere. Both total and low cloud cover over Arabian Sea and the equatorial Indian Ocean are observed to decrease during the ENSO events. However, cloud cover over Bay of Bengal is not modulated by the ENSO events. On inter-decadal scale, low cloud cover shifted from a "low regime" to a "high regime" after 1980 which may be associated with the corresponding inter-decadal changes of sea surface temperatures over north Indian Ocean observed during the late 1970s.

Tropical cyclone frequency in the north Indian Ocean in relation to southern oscillation phenomenon

The present paper deals with the influence of Southern Oscillation (SO) on the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. The results show that during the negative phase of SO the frequency of tropical cyclones and depressions over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea diminishes in May which is most important pre-monsoon cyclone month. The correlation coefficient between the frequency of cyclones and depressions and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is +0.3 which is significant at 99% level. Post-monsoon cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal during November shows a significant positive correlation with SOl implying that it also decreases during the negative phase of SO. Thus there is a reduction in the tropical cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during both intense cyclone months May and November in EI-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) epochs. Therefore it would not be correct to say that ENSO has no impact on the cyclogenesis in the north Indian Ocean. It is true that ENSO has no significant impact on the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. ENSO also seems to affect the rate of intensification of depressions to cyclone stage. The rate of intensification increases in May and diminishes in November in the north Indian Ocean during ENSO. The results are based on the analysis of monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones and depressions and SOI for the 100 year period from 1891-1990.

The Efficacy of the WRF-ARW Model in the Genesis and Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Fani over the Bay of Bengal

An attempt has been carried out to assess the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the genesis and intensification events of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Fani (26 April – 04 May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has been conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) FNL (final) data (0.250 × 0.250). According to the model simulated outcome analysis, the model is capable of predicting the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustainable Wind Speed (MSWS) pattern reasonably well, despite some deviations. The model has forecasted the Lowest Central Pressure (LCP) of 919 hPa and the MSWS of 70 ms-1 based on 0000 UTC of 26 April. Except for the model run based on 0000 UTC of 26 April, the simulated values of LCP are relatively higher than the observations. According to the statistical analysis, MSLP and MSWS at 850 hPa level demonstrate a significantly greater influence on Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation and intensification process than any other parameters. The model can predict the intensity features well enough, despite some uncertainty regarding the proper lead time of the model run. Reduced lead time model run, particularly 24 to 48 hr, can be chosen to forecast the genesis and intensification events of TC with minimum uncertainty. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 85-100

Fisheries Reference Point and Stock Status of Croaker Fishery (Sciaenidae) Exploited from the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh

This research evaluated fisheries reference points and stock status to assess the sustainability of the croaker fishery (Sciaenidae) from the Bay of Bengal (BoB), Bangladesh. Sixteen years (2001–2016) of catch-effort data were analyzed using two surplus production models (Schaefer and Fox), the Monte Carlo method (CMSY) and the Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model (BSM) method. This research applies a Stock–Production Model Incorporating Covariates (ASPIC) software package to run the Schaefer and Fox model. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) produced by all models ranged from 33,900 to 35,900 metric tons (mt), which is very close to last year’s catch (33,768 mt in 2016). The estimated B > BMSY and F < FMSY indicated the safe biomass and fishing status. The calculated F/FMSY was 0.89, 0.87, and 0.81, and B/BMSY was 1.05, 1.07, and 1.14 for Fox, Schaefer, and BSM, respectively, indicating the fully exploited status of croaker stock in the BoB, Bangladesh. The representation of the Kobe phase plot suggested that the exploitation of croaker stock started from the yellow (unsustainable) quadrant in 2001 and gradually moved to the green (sustainable) quadrant in 2016 because of the reduction in fishing efforts and safe fishing pressure after 2012. Thus, this research suggests that the current fishing pressure needs to be maintained so that the yearly catch does not exceed the MSY limit of croaker. Additionally, specific management measures should implement to guarantee croaker and other fisheries from the BoB.