Nomogram Predicting the Prognosis of Patients with Surgically Resected Stage IA Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Abstract Background: The AJCC 8th stage system was limited in accuracy for predicting prognosis of stage IA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. This study aimed to establish and validate two nomograms that predict overall survival (OS) and lung cancer specific survival (LCSS) in surgically resected stage IA NSCLC patients. Methods: Postoperative patients with stage IA NSCLC in SEER database between 2004 and 2015 were examined. Survival and clinical information according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria was collected. All patients were randomly divided into the training cohort and validation cohort with a ratio of 7:3. Independent prognosis factors were evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and predictive nomogram was established based on these factors. Nomogram performance was measured using the C-index, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Patients were grouped by quartiles of nomogram scores and survival curves were plotted by Kaplan-Meier analysis.Results: In total, 33533 patients were included in the study. The nomogram of OS and LCSS contained 12 and 10 prognostic factors respectively. The C-index of nomogram showed a relative good performance which was significantly superior than AJCC 8th stage both in training set and validating set (P<0.001). The calibration curve results showed that the actual survival rate was consistent with the predicted survival rate. Nomogram scores related risk stratification revealed statistically significant difference which have better discrimination than AJCC 8th stage.Conclusions: The two established nomograms can accurately predict OS and LCSS in surgical resected patients with stage IA NSCLC.