Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting With Theoretically-Based Statistical Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne H. Schubert ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
James Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting With Theoretically-Based Statistical Models

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne H. Schubert ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
James Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting With Theoretically-Based Statistical Models, Year 3

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne H. Schubert ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Charles r. Sampson ◽  
James Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

scholarly journals Using Mesoscale Simulations to Train Statistical Models of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over Land

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 2058-2073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Colette ◽  
Nadja Leith ◽  
Vincent Daniel ◽  
Enrica Bellone ◽  
David S. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Mesoscale Simulations

Abstract The decay of tropical cyclones after landfall is a key factor in estimating the extent of the hazard overland. Yet our current understanding of this decay is challenged by the low frequency of past events. Consequently, one cannot rely solely upon the historical record when attempting to quantify robustly the inland penetration of tropical cyclones. Thus, a framework designed to complement the historical record of landfalling storms by means of numerical modeling is introduced. Historical meteorological situations that could potentially have led to a landfall on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico are targeted and, using a bogus vortex technique in conjunction with a mesoscale model, a large number of landfalling hurricanes are simulated. The numerical ensemble constitutes a more comprehensive sample of possible landfalling hurricanes: it encompasses the range of events observed in the past but is not constrained to it. This allows us to revisit existing statistical models of the decay of tropical cyclones after landfall. A range of statistical models trained on the numerical ensemble of storms are evaluated on their ability to reproduce the inland decay of historical storms. These models have more skill at predicting tropical cyclone intensity over land than similar models trained exclusively on historical data.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide 6. Tropical Cyclone Intensity.

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Sampson ◽  
R. A. Jeffries ◽  
C. J. Neumann ◽  
J-H. Chu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Reference Guide

Real-Time Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using COAMPS-TC

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Doyle ◽  
R. M. Hodur ◽  
S. Chen ◽  
H. Jin ◽  
Y. Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Time Prediction

Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 1481-1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.-I. Lin ◽  
Gustavo J. Goni ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Cristina Forbes ◽  
M. M. Ali
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity
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