Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 1481-1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.-I. Lin ◽  
Gustavo J. Goni ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Cristina Forbes ◽  
M. M. Ali
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change before U.S. Gulf Coast Landfall

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1380-1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward N. Rappaport ◽  
James L. Franklin ◽  
Andrea B. Schumacher ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Lynn K. Shay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Abstract Tropical cyclone intensity change remains a forecasting challenge with important implications for such vulnerable areas as the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis of 1979–2008 Gulf tropical cyclones during their final two days before U.S. landfall identifies patterns of behavior that are of interest to operational forecasters and researchers. Tropical storms and depressions strengthened on average by about 7 kt for every 12 h over the Gulf, except for little change during their final 12 h before landfall. Hurricanes underwent a different systematic evolution. In the net, category 1–2 hurricanes strengthened, while category 3–5 hurricanes weakened such that tropical cyclones approach the threshold of major hurricane status by U.S. landfall. This behavior can be partially explained by consideration of the maximum potential intensity modified by the environmental vertical wind shear and hurricane-induced sea surface temperature reduction near the storm center associated with relatively low oceanic heat content levels. Linear least squares regression equations based on initial intensity and time to landfall explain at least half the variance of the hurricane intensity change. Applied retrospectively, these simple equations yield relatively small forecast errors and biases for hurricanes. Characteristics of most of the significant outliers are explained and found to be identifiable a priori for hurricanes, suggesting that forecasters can adjust their forecast procedures accordingly.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide 6. Tropical Cyclone Intensity.

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Sampson ◽  
R. A. Jeffries ◽  
C. J. Neumann ◽  
J-H. Chu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Reference Guide

Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting With Theoretically-Based Statistical Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne H. Schubert ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
James Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Real-Time Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using COAMPS-TC

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Doyle ◽  
R. M. Hodur ◽  
S. Chen ◽  
H. Jin ◽  
Y. Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Time Prediction

scholarly journals A View of Tropical Cyclones from Above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (10) ◽  
pp. 2113-2134 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Jonathan R. Moskaitis ◽  
Joel W. Feldmeier ◽  
Ronald J. Ferek ◽  
Mark Beaubien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
High Definition ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change and structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from the innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) and remotely sensed observations from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board the NASA WB-57 that flew in the lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes were intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution: Joaquin in the Atlantic and Marty and Patricia in the eastern North Pacific. Nearly 800 dropsondes were deployed from the WB-57 flight level of ∼60,000 ft (∼18 km), recording atmospheric conditions from the lower stratosphere to the surface, while HIRAD measured the surface winds in a 50-km-wide swath with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Dropsonde transects with 4–10-km spacing through the inner cores of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty depict the large horizontal and vertical gradients in winds and thermodynamic properties. An innovative technique utilizing GPS positions of the HDSS reveals the vortex tilt in detail not possible before. In four TCI flights over Joaquin, systematic measurements of a major hurricane’s outflow layer were made at high spatial resolution for the first time. Dropsondes deployed at 4-km intervals as the WB-57 flew over the center of Hurricane Patricia reveal in unprecedented detail the inner-core structure and upper-tropospheric outflow associated with this historic hurricane. Analyses and numerical modeling studies are in progress to understand and predict the complex factors that influenced Joaquin’s and Patricia’s unusual intensity changes.

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