Real-Time Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using COAMPS-TC

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Doyle ◽  
R. M. Hodur ◽  
S. Chen ◽  
H. Jin ◽  
Y. Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Time Prediction

scholarly journals A Consensus Approach for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Meteorological Satellites: SATCON

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 1645-1662 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher S. Velden ◽  
Derrick Herndon
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Intensity Analysis ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Consensus Approach ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Weighting Strategy ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Intensity Estimate

ABSTRACTA consensus-based algorithm for estimating the current intensity of global tropical cyclones (TCs) from meteorological satellites is described. The method objectively combines intensity estimates from infrared and microwave-based techniques to produce a consensus TC intensity estimate, which is more skillful than the individual members. The method, called Satellite Consensus (SATCON), can be run in near–real time and employs information sharing between member algorithms and a weighting strategy that relies on the situational precision of each member. An evaluation of the consensus algorithm’s performance in comparison with its individual members and other available operational estimates of TC intensity is presented. It is shown that SATCON can provide valuable objective intensity estimates for poststorm assessments, especially in the absence of other data such as provided by reconnaissance aircraft. It can also serve as a near-real-time estimator of TC intensity for forecasters, with the ability to quickly reconcile differences in objective intensity methods and thus decrease the uncertainty and amount of time spent on the intensity analysis. Near-real-time SATCON estimates are being provided to global operational TC forecast centers.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide 6. Tropical Cyclone Intensity.

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Sampson ◽  
R. A. Jeffries ◽  
C. J. Neumann ◽  
J-H. Chu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Reference Guide

Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting With Theoretically-Based Statistical Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne H. Schubert ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Charles R. Sampson ◽  
James Cummings
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 1481-1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.-I. Lin ◽  
Gustavo J. Goni ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Cristina Forbes ◽  
M. M. Ali
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

scholarly journals A View of Tropical Cyclones from Above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (10) ◽  
pp. 2113-2134 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Jonathan R. Moskaitis ◽  
Joel W. Feldmeier ◽  
Ronald J. Ferek ◽  
Mark Beaubien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
High Definition ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change and structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from the innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) and remotely sensed observations from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board the NASA WB-57 that flew in the lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes were intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution: Joaquin in the Atlantic and Marty and Patricia in the eastern North Pacific. Nearly 800 dropsondes were deployed from the WB-57 flight level of ∼60,000 ft (∼18 km), recording atmospheric conditions from the lower stratosphere to the surface, while HIRAD measured the surface winds in a 50-km-wide swath with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Dropsonde transects with 4–10-km spacing through the inner cores of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty depict the large horizontal and vertical gradients in winds and thermodynamic properties. An innovative technique utilizing GPS positions of the HDSS reveals the vortex tilt in detail not possible before. In four TCI flights over Joaquin, systematic measurements of a major hurricane’s outflow layer were made at high spatial resolution for the first time. Dropsondes deployed at 4-km intervals as the WB-57 flew over the center of Hurricane Patricia reveal in unprecedented detail the inner-core structure and upper-tropospheric outflow associated with this historic hurricane. Analyses and numerical modeling studies are in progress to understand and predict the complex factors that influenced Joaquin’s and Patricia’s unusual intensity changes.

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