Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions in the MIZ: A Langrangian Approach

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Tremblay
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 024
Author(s):  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Gilles Garric ◽  
Sara Fleury ◽  
Florent Garnier ◽  
Lauriane Batté ◽  
...  

L'Arctique est la région du globe qui s'est réchauffée le plus vite au cours des trente dernières années, avec une augmentation de la température de surface environ deux fois plus rapide que pour la moyenne globale. Le déclin de la banquise arctique observé depuis le début de l'ère satellitaire et attribué principalement à l'augmentation de la concentration des gaz à effet de serre aurait joué un rôle important dans cette amplification des températures au pôle. Cette fonte importante des glaces arctiques, qui devrait s'accélérer dans les décennies à venir, pourrait modifier les vents en haute altitude et potentiellement avoir un impact sur le climat des moyennes latitudes. L'étendue de la banquise arctique varie considérablement d'une saison à l'autre, d'une année à l'autre, d'une décennie à l'autre. Améliorer notre capacité à prévoir ces variations nécessite de comprendre, observer et modéliser les interactions entre la banquise et les autres composantes du système Terre, telles que l'océan, l'atmosphère ou la biosphère, à différentes échelles de temps. La réalisation de prévisions saisonnières de la banquise arctique est très récente comparée aux prévisions du temps ou aux prévisions saisonnières de paramètres météorologiques (température, précipitation). Les résultats ayant émergé au cours des dix dernières années mettent en évidence l'importance des observations de l'épaisseur de la glace de mer pour prévoir l'évolution de la banquise estivale plusieurs mois à l'avance. Surface temperatures over the Arctic region have been increasing twice as fast as global mean temperatures, a phenomenon known as arctic amplification. One main contributor to this polar warming is the large decline of Arctic sea ice observed since the beginning of satellite observations, which has been attributed to the increase of greenhouse gases. The acceleration of Arctic sea ice loss that is projected for the coming decades could modify the upper level atmospheric circulation yielding climate impacts up to the mid-latitudes. There is considerable variability in the spatial extent of ice cover on seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales. Better understanding, observing and modelling the interactions between sea ice and the other components of the climate system is key for improved predictions of Arctic sea ice in the future. Running operational-like seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice is a quite recent effort compared to weather predictions or seasonal predictions of atmospheric fields like temperature or precipitation. Recent results stress the importance of sea ice thickness observations to improve seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions during summer.


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (19) ◽  
pp. 5745-5759 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siobhan Williams ◽  
Walter Adey ◽  
Jochen Halfar ◽  
Andreas Kronz ◽  
Patrick Gagnon ◽  
...  

Abstract. The shallow-marine benthic coralline alga Clathromorphum compactum is an important annual- to sub-annual-resolution archive of Arctic and subarctic environmental conditions, allowing reconstructions going back > 600 years. Both Mg content, in the high-Mg calcitic cell walls, and annual algal growth increments have been used as a proxy for past temperatures and sea ice conditions. The process of calcification in coralline algae has been debated widely, with no definitive conclusion about the role of light and photosynthesis in growth and calcification. Light received by algal specimens can vary with latitude, water depth, sea ice conditions, water turbidity, and shading. Furthermore, field calibration studies of Clathromorphum sp. have yielded geographically disparate correlations between MgCO3 and sea surface temperature. The influence of other environmental controls, such as light, on Mg uptake and calcification has received little attention. We present results from an 11-month mesocosm experiment in which 123 wild-collected C. compactum specimens were grown in conditions simulating their natural habitat. Specimens grown for periods of 1 and 2 months in complete darkness show that the typical complex of anatomy and cell wall calcification develops in new tissue without the presence of light, demonstrating that calcification is metabolically driven and not a side effect of photosynthesis. Also, we show that both light and temperature significantly affect MgCO3 in C. compactum cell walls. For specimens grown at low temperature (2 ∘C), the effects of light are smaller, with a 1.4 mol % MgCO3 increase from low-light (mean = 17 lx) to high-light conditions (mean = 450 lx). At higher (10 ∘C) temperature there was a 1.8 mol % MgCO3 increase from low to high light. It is therefore concluded that site- and possibly specimen-specific temperature calibrations must be applied, to account for effects of light when generating Clathromorphum-derived temperature calibrations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant J. Macdonald ◽  
Stephen F. Ackley ◽  
Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez

Abstract. Polynyas are key sites of ice production during the winter and are important sites of biological activity and carbon sequestration during the summer. The Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) is the fourth largest Antarctic polynya, has recorded the highest primary productivity and lies in an embayment of key oceanographic significance. However, knowledge of its dynamics, and of sub-annual variations in its area and ice production, is limited. In this study we primarily utilize Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, sea ice concentration products and climate reanalysis data, along with bathymetric data, to analyze the ASP over the period November 2016–March 2021. Specifically, we analyze (i) qualitative changes in the ASP's characteristics and dynamics, and quantitative changes in (ii) summer polynya area, (iii) winter polynya area and ice production. From our analysis of SAR imagery we find that ice produced by the ASP becomes stuck in the vicinity of the polynya and sometimes flows back into the polynya, contributing to its closure and limiting further ice production. The polynya forms westward off a persistent chain of grounded icebergs that are located at the site of a bathymetric high. Grounded icebergs also influence the outflow of ice and facilitate the formation of a 'secondary polynya' at times. Additionally, unlike some polynyas, ice produced by the polynya flows westward after formation, along the coast and into the neighboring sea sector. During the summer and early winter, broader regional sea ice conditions can play an important role in the polynya. The polynya opens in all summers, but record-low sea ice conditions in 2016/17 cause it to become part of the open ocean. During the winter, an average of 78 % of ice production occurs in April–May and September–October, but large polynya events often associated with high winds can cause ice production throughout the winter. While passive microwave data or daily sea ice concentration products remain key for analyzing variations in polynya area and ice production, we find that the ability to directly observe and qualitatively analyze the polynya at a high temporal and spatial resolution with Sentinel-1 imagery provides important insights about the behavior of the polynya that are not possible with those datasets.


2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 270-274
Author(s):  
Xue-Qin Liu ◽  
Shuai Yuan ◽  
Yu-Xian Ma ◽  
Wen-Qi Shi ◽  
Ning Xu ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (8) ◽  
pp. 5436-5450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Massicotte ◽  
Ilka Peeken ◽  
Christian Katlein ◽  
Hauke Flores ◽  
Yannick Huot ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 6425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens A. Hölemann ◽  
Sergey Kirillov ◽  
Torben Klagge ◽  
Andrey Novikhin ◽  
Heidemarie Kassens ◽  
...  

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