Dynamics of Unemployment and Home Price Shocks on Mortgage Default Rates

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaw Owusu-Ansah
Keyword(s):  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Default Rates

Did Bankruptcy Reform Cause Mortgage Defaults to Rise?

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 123-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenli Li ◽  
Michelle J White ◽  
Ning Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Budget Constraints ◽  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Default Rates ◽  
Mortgage Defaults

Homeowners in financial distress can use bankruptcy to avoid defaulting on their mortgages, since filing loosens their budget constraints. But the 2005 bankruptcy reform made bankruptcy less favorable to homeowners and therefore caused mortgage defaults to rise. We test this relationship and find that the reform caused prime and subprime mortgage default rates to rise by 23% and 14%, respectively. Default rates rose even more for homeowners who were particularly negatively affected by the reform. We calculate that bankruptcy reform caused mortgage default rates to rise by one percentage point even before the start of the financial crisis. (JEL D14, G01, G21, K35)

Markov-switching impacts of housing-market expectations on credit markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-400
Author(s):  
MeiChi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Credit Markets ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Good Time ◽  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Housing Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Default Rates ◽  
Mortgage Defaults

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate linkages between households’ expectations and credit markets in the housing crisis. Design/methodology/approach In the Markov-switching framework, the sample period is classified into high- and low-impact regimes based on impacts of expectations on default rates, and the good-time-to-buy (GTTB) index is chosen to proxy for expectations toward the housing-market dynamics. Findings The results suggest that in high-impact regimes, optimistic expectations are substantially associated with lower defaults for all default rates analyzed, and second mortgage defaults are more sensitive to households’ expectations than first mortgage defaults. In low-impact regimes, the GTTB index significantly influences composite and first-mortgage default rates, but its impact is insignificant for second mortgage and bankcard default rates. Originality/value The results provide compelling evidence that households’ expectations play more important roles in credit markets in turmoil periods.

scholarly journals Epidemiological spreading of mortgage default

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-93
Author(s):  
Jochen Schweikert ◽  
Markus Höchstötter
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Logit Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Employment Conditions ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Default Rates ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Mortgage Defaults

Purpose This paper aims to introduce mathematical models to capture the spreading of epidemics to explain the expansion of mortgage default events in the USA. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the state of infectiousness and death to represent the subsequent steps of payment elinquency and default, respectively. As the local economic structure influences regional unemployment, which is a strong driver of mortgage default, the authors model interdependencies of regional mortgage default rates through employment conditions and vicinity. Findings Based on a large sample between 2000 and 2014 of loan-level data, the estimation of key parameters of the model is proposed. The model’s forecast accuracy shows an above-average performance compared to well-known approaches such as linear regression or logit models. Originality/value The key findings may be useful in understanding the dynamics of mortgage defaults and its spatial spreading.

Did Bankruptcy Reform Cause Mortgage Default Rates to Rise?

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenli Li ◽  
Michelle J. White ◽  
Ning Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Default Rates

Determinants of Mortgage Default Rates: Pre-Crisis and Crisis Period Dynamics and Stability

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey M. Ngene ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
William J. Hippler ◽  
Ivan Julio
Keyword(s):  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Default Rates

Mortgage Default Rates and Borrower Race

1999 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Anderson ◽  
James VanderHoff
Keyword(s):  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Default Rates

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

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