Economic Crisis and the IMF: Does the IMF Need Reforms to Ensure Global Economic Stability?

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derrick Owusu-Kodua
Author(s):  
Ben Clift

The IMF uses crisis-defining economic ideas, and crisis legacy-defining ideas, to construct interpretations of economic crises in ways which prioritize particular policy or institutional responses, and rule out or marginalize others. The post-crash IMF enjoyed scope to shift the boundaries of ‘legitimate’ policy, involving heightened appreciation of ‘non-linear’ threats from losses of confidence, prolonged weak demand, and financial system fragilities and contagion. The policy corollaries of this Fund rethink were that economic stability has to be actively pursued through a wider range of policy and regulatory interventions by governments, central banks, the IMF, and other forms of authority and public power. In the context of the Great Recession, the Fund no longer considered it safe to assume an inherent tendency on the part of unfettered market forces in finance and the real economy to deliver the stability and full employment at the heart of its mandate.


Subject IMF funding dynamics. Significance The disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is putting emerging markets (EMs) and low-income Countries (LICs) under economic and financial stresses. The IMF has long served as the world’s first responder to crises, and some 90 countries have already turned to it, raising fears of whether it has adequate resources to play a systemic role in helping to support these countries. Impacts A second wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths would prolong the economic crisis and could sharply raise demands for IMF resources. The organisation needs a quota increase but the fastest way to raise more resources for EMs is by increasing bilateral borrowing. For low-income countries, additional IMF funding is being mobilised.


2002 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Hayo ◽  
Doh Chull Shin
Keyword(s):  

Subject Ghana's debt strategy. Significance The government on October 2 suspended its fourth euro-bond sale after low investor interest. The planned 1.5-billion-dollar issue was a key pillar in the medium-term debt management plan under the country's IMF programme. However, rising interest rates on dollar-denominated bonds and the lack of confidence in Ghana's economy has proved it to be a risky strategy. Impacts Preferences for political continuity may see the IMF offer the government more leniency on expenditure targets as 2016 elections approach. The opposition New Patriotic Party needs to do more to capitalise on the economic crisis if it hopes to unseat the government. Appetite for Ghana's recovery among donors could see more concessional borrowing if the commercial environment remains difficult.


Significance This followed the government’s decision to default, for the first time ever, on bonds maturing on March 9. There is a mounting controversy over whether to seek financial support from the IMF for a comprehensive debt restructuring programme, especially as COVID-19 further intensifies the economic crisis. Hezbollah, Lebanon’s dominant political force, initially vetoed any such recourse, but may be softening its stance. Impacts One possible source of support could be Qatar, which has shown a pragmatic approach to working alongside Hezbollah in the past. IMF-agreed reforms would likely impose further hardship on an already-suffering population. IMF and donor finance would at least put dollars back in the market, albeit at a higher price, and safeguard imports.


Significance The first-round victory may help expedite measures to tackle the economic crisis and in particular to start debt renegotiations with creditors. Fernandez’s transition team of four, one of whom will likely be named economy minister, are closer to him than to his vice-president-elect, former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). Impacts With its two most important figures defeated, Cambiemos may disintegrate. Fernandez’s stated commitment to reprogramming rather than writing down debt may prove unattainable. Talks with the IMF, and the Fund’s willingness to amend the terms of its stand-by agreement, will be key.


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