Mit dem Kopf im Sand? Goodharts Gesetz und die Wirkungslosigkeit von Inflationszielen als geldpolitische Regelmechanismen (With the Head in the Sand? Goodhart's Law and the Ineffectiveness of Inflation Targeting Frameworks as Monetary Policy Rules)

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunther Schnabl
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging ASEAN Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-274
Author(s):  
Mesa Wanasilp
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
The Difference

This paper examines the monetary policy rules for five emerging ASEAN economies—Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand as the adopters of inflation targeting (IT) and Malaysia and Vietnam as the non-IT adopters. For the methodology, this study applies a generalized method of moments that provides a consistent and efficient estimator for the estimation that contains endogenously determined variables. The questions are whether the rules of the IT adopters have fulfilled the Taylor principle and what has been the difference in the rules between the IT adopters and the non-IT adopters. The main findings are as follows: Regarding the IT adopters, their rules are characterized by inflation-responsive rules fulfilling the Taylor principle. As for the non-IT adopters, Malaysia follows solely an output-gap responsive rule, and Vietnam exhibits the mixed rules. The policy implications are that for the IT adopters there might be room to make their policy-rate responses more elastic to inflation, and that for the non-IT adopters, there would be a need to adopt an explicit IT framework.

scholarly journals The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective

1999 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 1661-1707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Clarida ◽  
Jordi Galí ◽  
Mark Gertler
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Real World ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Credible Commitment ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules

The paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making a credible commitment to fight inflation. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that gains from commitment may emerge even if the central bank is not trying to inadvisedly push output above its natural level. We also consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging ASEAN Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
The Difference

This paper examines the monetary policy rules for five emerging ASEAN economies: Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand as the adopters of inflation targeting (IT), and Malaysia and Vietnam as the non-IT adopters. For the methodology, this study applies a generalized method of moments that provides a consistent and efficient estimator, for the estimation that contains endogenously determined variables. The questions are: whether the rules of the IT adopters have fulfilled the Taylor principle, and what has been the difference in the rules between the IT adopters and the non-IT adopters. The main findings are as follows. Regarding the IT adopters, their rules are characterized by inflation-responsive rules fulfilling the Taylor principle. As for the non-IT adopters, Malaysia follows solely an output-gap responsive rule; and Vietnam exhibits the mixed rules. The policy implications are that for the IT adopters there might be room to make their policy-rate responses more elastic to inflation; and that for the non-IT adopters there would be a need to adopt an explicit IT framework.

scholarly journals The Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy: Lessons for Pakistan (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (4I) ◽  
pp. 337-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsin S. Khan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Global Capital ◽  
Mobile Capital ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Rules Versus Discretion

Movements in global capital during the late 1990s and the greater emphasis on price stability led many countries to abandon fixed exchange rate regimes and to design institutions and monetary policies to achieve credibility in the goal of lowering inflation. Such recent developments have brought to the forefront the idea that freely mobile capital, independent monetary policy, and fixed exchange rates form an “impossible trinity”. Inflation-targeting regimes being adopted by many countries provide a way of resolving this dilemma, and it is suggested that such a regime be implemented in Pakistan as well. JEL classification: E42, E52 Keywords: Monetary Policy, Rules versus Discretion, Inflation Targeting

scholarly journals Welfare Implications of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A New Keynesian DSGE Model for Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-379
Author(s):  
Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı ◽  
Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Loss Function ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Demand Shock ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Technology Shock

Abstract In recent years, there has been extensive research on the conduct of monetary policy in small open economies that are subject to inflation and output fluctuations. Policymakers should decide whether to implement strict inflation targeting or to respond to the changes in output fluctuations while conducting monetary policy rule. This study aims to examine the response of alternative monetary policy rules to Turkish economy by means of a DSGE model that is subject to demand and technology shocks. The New Keynesian model we used is borrowed from Gali (2015) and calibrated for the Turkish economy. Welfare effects of alternative Taylor rules are evaluated under different specifications of central bank loss function. One of the main findings of this paper is that in the case of a technology shock, strict inflation targeting rules provide the minimum welfare loss under all loss function configurations. On the contrary, the losses are weakened if the monetary authority responds to output fluctuations in the presence of a demand shock. Finally, there exists a trade-off between the volatility of output and inflation in case of a technology shock, while the volatility of both variables moves in the same direction in response to a demand shock.

scholarly journals HOW DOES MONETARY POLICY CHANGE? EVIDENCE ON INFLATION-TARGETING COUNTRIES

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 593-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromír Baxa ◽  
Roman Horváth ◽  
Bořek Vašíček
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Endogenous Regressors

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation-targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), applying a moment-based estimator in a time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. From this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually, pointing to the importance of applying a time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest-rate smoothing parameter is much lower than typically reported by previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules. External factors matter for all countries, although the importance of the exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates to inflation is particularly strong during periods when central bankers want to break a record of high inflation, such as in the United Kingdom or Australia at the beginning of the 1980s. Contrary to common perceptions, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting, suggesting a positive anchoring effect of this regime on inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

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