Searching for hedging and safe haven assets for Indian equity market – a comparison between gold, cryptocurrency and commodities

Purpose This paper aims to evaluate the hedging and safe haven properties of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities against the Indian equity market. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors estimate the hedging and safe haven abilities of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities for the Indian stock market and further verify whether such properties vary across the broad stock market indices and over the different degrees of market volatility. Second, the authors use the multivariate GARCH framework to calculate the dynamic hedge ratios and hedging efficiencies to compare the hedging properties of the alternative asset classes. Third, the authors verify the robustness of the general findings during the recent crisis emanating from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings Gold, cryptocurrency and most commodities have significant hedging abilities. Only natural gas, crude oil and aluminum, on the other hand, have safe haven property. Neither gold nor cryptocurrency qualifies as a safe haven asset. On the other hand, the financialization of the Indian commodities market provides a significant dividend to investors in terms of hedging and safe haven capabilities. The authors find the least negative hedge ratio and the highest positive hedging effectiveness for the stock-crude oil and stock-natural gas portfolios. The central observations of the paper remain immune to the COVID crisis. Originality/value Focusing on the Indian equity market, the paper compares the diversification abilities of traditional assets like gold with those of the modern class of assets, including cryptocurrency and other commodities.

Labor market policies, informality and misallocation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand labor market regulations and their consequences for the allocation of resources. Design/methodology/approach This paper constructs a theoretical model to study labor market regulations in developing countries and how it affects the allocation of resources between the less productive informal activities and more productive formal activities. It also provides empirical support for some theoretical results using cross-country data. Findings When workers are risk-averse and the market for insurance against labor income risk is missing, regulations that provide insurance to workers (such as severance payments) reduce misallocation. However, regulations that simply create barriers to the dismissal of workers increase misallocation and end up reducing the welfare of workers. This study also provides some empirical evidence broadly consistent with the theoretical results using cross-country data. While dismissal regulations increase the share of informal employment, severance payments to workers do not. Research limitations/implications The empirical exercise is constrained by the lack of availability of good data on the informal sector. Originality/value The analysis of the alternative labor market regulations analyzed in this paper in the presence of risk-averse workers is an original contribution to the literature.

Structural change and economic growth in India: a comparative study of Punjab

Purpose The Green Revolution transformed agriculture in the Indian State of Punjab, with positive spillovers to the rest of India, but recently the state’s economy has fallen dramatically in rankings of per capita state output. Understanding the trajectory of Punjab’s economy has important lessons for all of India. Economic development is typically associated with changes in economic structure, but Punjab has remained relatively reliant on agriculture rather than shifting economic activity to manufacturing and services, where productivity growth might be greater. Design/methodology/approach The authors empirically examine structural change in the Punjab economy in the context of structural change and economic growth across the States of India. The authors calculate structural change indices and map their pattern over time. The authors estimate panel regressions and time-varying parameter regressions, as well as performing productivity change decompositions into within-sector and structural changes. Findings Panel regressions and time-varying-coefficient regressions suggest a significant positive influence of structural change on state-level growth. In addition, growth positively affected structural change across India’s states. The relative lack of structural change in Punjab’s economy is implicated in its relatively poor recent growth performance. Comparisons with a handful of other states reinforce this conclusion: Punjab’s lack of economic diversification is a plausible explanation for its lagging economic performance. Originality/value This paper performs a novel empirical analysis of structural change and growth, simultaneously using three different approaches: panel regressions, time-varying parameter regressions and productivity decompositions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the only paper we are aware of that combines these three approaches.

Does any nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth exist? Evidence from Haryana using VAR model

Purpose In the fast-changing technological environment, electricity is the essence of the world economy and a significant means for all the modern world’s possessions. The ongoing economic downturn focuses on energy’s role in the economy. This study aims to explore the nexuses between per capita electricity usage and per capita state gross domestic product (SGDP) in Haryana, India. Design/methodology/approach The statistics from 1989 to 2015 have been analyzed using Johansen cointegration, vector autoregression and paired Granger-causality test. Findings The Granger causality test results show that a long-run association is absent. A short-run unidirectional relationship runs from per capita SGDP to per capita electricity usage. Practical implications As a policy suggestion, the policymakers may encourage energy conservation measures and renewable energy sources to lead the country’s sustainable energy supply. Moreover, Haryana can increase its influence in this sector and enter rapidly in the growing markets worldwide by stimulating the production and adoption of digital solutions for energy efficiency. Originality/value To the best of the author’s awareness, this research is one of its nature regarding systematically analyzing electricity usage and economic growth relationship in Haryana.

Impact of re-election on development in India: a comparative analysis of leading and lagging states

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine political accountability to the voter in India by studying re-election patterns in 14 major states categorized as leading and lagging during the period 1952–2015. Design/methodology/approach This study has computed a state-wise re-election index by taking the ratio of the number of constituencies exhibiting re-election in four consecutive terms during 1952–1999 to the total number of constituencies in the state. The time-invariant re-election index as of the year 1999 is used to estimate the impact of the re-election on per capita state income during 2001–2015. This paper has used the correlated random effects estimation procedure that considers the state-specific unobserved factors while using a time-invariant regressor to ascertain the impact of re-election. Findings This study finds that persistent re-election does not seem to lead to better development outcomes. When this study computes the re-election index by excluding constituencies that are underdeveloped both in the economic and social spheres, this paper finds the asymmetric impact of re-election for the leading and the lagging states. The findings suggest that historical institutions in the laggings states could be driving the empirical results. The empirical findings are corroborated by the relatively poor availability of basic amenities in constituencies exhibiting persistent re-election when compared to the state average. Practical implications The findings suggest that the provision of re-election without term limits may need to be revisited in the lagging states for better political accountability. Originality/value First, the authors study the pattern of constituency-wise re-election to compute state-wise re-election index to capture persistent re-election. Second, the authors assess the development status of a constituency by mapping it to the development indicators of the district in which the constituency is located. This paper considers both economic as well social indicators of development. Third, the time-invariant nature of the re-election index helps to address reverse causality while studying the impact of re-election on development. Fourth, the authors use a novel econometric methodology to study the impact of the re-election on development given the time-invariant characteristic of the re-election index.

Role of digital economy and technology adoption for financial inclusion in India

Purpose The study aims to explore the role of digital economy and technology adoption for financial inclusion in the Indian context. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual framework was developed and hypotheses were tested through a survey conducted on 433 educated adults (males and females) residing in different districts of Rajasthan (India). Data was collected through a structured questionnaire and was subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. Structural equation modeling (second-order) was used to validate the measurement model and to test the mediating effect. Findings The measurement model is a confirmatory factor analysis and measures the reliability of the observed variables in relation to the latent constructs and indices shows the overall model fit. Structural model results indicate a complete mediation and a reflective impact (R2 = 0.28) of the extended technology acceptance model on digital economy and financial inclusion relationship. Research limitations/implications The study has taken into account only the perception of educated adults residing more specifically in one geographical area of a country. Thus, it limits the generalization of results in terms of implications to other regions and countries. Practical implications The proposed framework and implications are quite significant for policymakers and service providers to understand the nexus and strategic choices involved in this area. Moreover, understanding of user’s frame dependence would help in the development of digital assistive models that would perhaps mitigate the gap from participation (digital economy) to acceptance (financial inclusion). Originality/value Present study proposed a three-dimensional hypothetical model and conceptualized the digital economy (independent variable) as participation, behavioral intentions measured through the extended technology acceptance model (mediating variable) as adoption and financial inclusion (dependent variable) as acceptance to better understand the nexus. It represents the foremost step and a unique effort in this area. Moreover, the study was empirical and has wider applications both from the perspectives of end-users and service providers.

Changes of base-year and Indian GDP growth: an agnostic look

Purpose World over, change of base year in the gross domestic product (GDP) is a standard practice of GDP estimation. However, unless a consistent series of GDP is released with respect to the new base for the earlier period, the existence of multiple growth rates creates problems for applied researchers, policymakers and the general public alike. Faced with such a menu of GDP series researchers often try to interpolate a consistent series of GDP. The main purpose of this paper is to analyses the nature of the data generating process of such multiple interpolated series of quarterly growth rates and tries to discern the consistency of such processes. Design/methodology/approach The present paper tries to look into the statistical implications and complications of such interpolated quarterly GDP/growth series in India in terms of three series of GDP, namely, with 1999–2000, 2004–2005 and 2011–2012 as its bases. Findings The analysis reveals that as a result of a change of base year, the nature of the data generating process of the old and new GDP series could undergo changes and experience different breakpoints. While all these conclusions seem to be valid for GDP growth at quarterly intervals, taking the data at annual frequency is less problematic. Practical implications The observation suggests that in most applied work, researchers may not have the luxury of only working with annual data and certain consistency checks will be necessary to check the veracity of the results based on quarterly data with those based on annual data. Second, moving forward it may be useful for the Authorities to make a transition to a chain-based linking method rather than fixed time-period-based bases as is currently done. Originality/value The analysis of Indian GDP in this paper is, perhaps, indicative of the fact that usage of quarterly GDP data is to be handled with caution and it is preferable that any serious empirical analysis uses annual GDP data whenever it is available/feasible. The comparison of GDP growth rates at different frequencies and examining the true nature of the process are quite unique in their contribution towards empirical macroeconomic research.

Measuring volatility spillovers and asymmetric responses of Agri commodity prices: evidence from spices and rubber futures in India

Purpose This paper aims to investigate price responses and volatility spillovers between commodity spot and futures markets. The study ultimately seeks the evidence-based claims on the efficiency of the long run and short run horizontal price transmissions from futures markets to spot markets. Design/methodology/approach This study used the most recent daily price series of pepper, cardamom and rubber, during the period 2004–2019, use “cointegration-ECM-GARCH framework” and verify the persisting validity of the “expectancy theory” of commodity futures pricing. Findings The results offer overwhelming evidence of futures market dominance in the price discoveries and volatility spillovers in spot markets. However, this paper finds asymmetric responses between cash and futures prices across markets. The hedging efficiency of futures contracts is commodities specific’ where spices futures are more efficient than the rubber futures. Practical implications The study passes on vital information to the producers and traders of spices and rubber who have a potential interest in the use of futures contracts to make profits from arbitrage between futures and cash markets. Originality/value The paper is unique in terms of understanding asymmetric price linkages in markets for plantation crops.

Peer effects in the valuation and practices of food safety: findings from the study of dairy consumers in India

Purpose Information is often available to consumers through their social networks. Focusing on dairy consumers in India, this paper aims to present evidence of peer effects in consumers’ attitudes towards various food safety attributes and food safety practices. Design/methodology/approach Unobserved individual heterogeneities are crucial confounders in the identification of social (endogenous) effects. The identification is based on exploiting within-consumer variation across different aspects of attitude (or practices) related to food safety. Findings This paper uses a novel identification strategy that allows for average effects across attributes and practices to be estimated. Using the strategy, though this paper cannot estimate endogenous effects in each attribute or practice, this paper is able to identify such effects averaged over attributes or practices. Research limitations/implications Cross-sectional study, caste affiliation is not defined at the right level of granularity. Practical implications The results suggest that information campaigns aimed at creating awareness about food safety can have social multiplier effects, and this also translates into changes in the practices followed to mitigate food safety risks. Social implications In health-related awareness and practices, there are well-established cases of multiplier effects. The most significant example of this is the Pulse Polio campaign in India, where an awareness drives through social multiplier effects had such a significant impact that in 2012 India was declared polio-free. Perhaps, a similar campaign in matters related to food safety could be very fruitful. Originality/value The methodology and the issue are unique. Little exists in assessing social networks in the context of food safety.