A “Sideways” Supply Response in California Winegrapes

This paper explores growers’ supply response to the 2005 “Sideways effect” demand shock (Cuellar, Karnowsky, and Acosta, 2009) triggered by the 2004 release of the movie Sideways. We use a modified difference-in-difference approach to evaluate the supply response in California and regional supply response differences within California. We use U.S. Department of Agriculture data for the period 1999–2012 and find evidence of a supply response in the post-release period that is consistent with the “Sideways effect” on wine demand. The positive supply response for Pinot Noir is stronger than the negative response for Merlot and concentrated in lower value Central Valley vineyards. (JEL Classifications: D25, Q12)

Are Temporary or Permanent Income Payments Better Placed to Boost Demand during Covid-19?

Covid-19 has sparked calls for a universal basic income as a way of coping with a demand shock caused by the pandemic. Temporary income payments have been part of the emergency response to the pandemic. This paper questions the effectiveness of temporary payments as a way to raise demand. Some observers claim that vouchers are better targeted at sectors hit hard by Covid-19 as people may have a tendency to save than spend from temporary payments. There may be a stronger case for permanent rather than temporary payments if the aim is to boost demand in the economy.

Coronacrisis in the Mechanisms of Cyclic Development of the World and Russian Economies

Based on the theory of the cyclical nature of capitalist reproduction in its various (including modern) variations, the author of the article defends the thesis that the pandemic of the new coronavirus was not the root cause of the crisis in the world economy in 2020, but only a factor of its approach in time. Excessive, in the spirit of modern radical liberalism, marketization (commercialization) of country health systems and the desire of a number of nation states to use a large-scale epidemic as a powerful bioengineering weapon are classified as the most significant direct determinants of the global coronacrisis. The mechanism of the influence of the coronavirus epidemic on the state of the world economy is revealed. An attempt is made to compare the coronavirus crisis and the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009 with an assessment of the change in the balance of forces between the leading powers in the course of the deployment of these crises. As a «visiting card», the specifics of the current global crisis is characterized by a negative combination of supply shock and demand shock, which radically complicates the construction of an adequate system of anti-crisis regulation of the world and national economies. The place of coronacrisis shocks in the mechanism of the deepening of the Russian autonomous recession is revealed. The effectiveness of the anti-crisis activities of the Government and the Bank of Russia is constructively and critically assessed.

Keynesian Supply Shocks and Hayekian Secondary Deflations

In response to the COVID-19 lockdown policies, Guerrieri et al. (2020) developed a new concept: the Keynesian supply shock. A Keynesian supply shock is an aggregate supply shock that leads to an even larger aggregate demand shock. This paper suggests that Keynesian supply shocks are very similar to the secondary deflations suggested by Hayek (1931), and US data from the 2007–09 financial crisis show that these concepts may help to explain employment dynamics in the midst of a crisis. This fact implies that long-standing policy advice based on Austrian business cycle theory would be useful in responding to Keynesian supply shocks.

Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership, and Homicides: Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock

Do firearm purchase delay laws reduce aggregate homicide levels? Using variation from a 6-month countrywide gun demand shock in 2012/2013, we show that U.S. states with legislation preventing immediate handgun purchases experienced smaller increases in handgun sales. Our findings indicate that this is likely driven by comparatively lower purchases among impulsive consumers. We then demonstrate that states with purchase delays also witnessed comparatively 2% lower homicide rates during the same period. Further evidence shows that lower handgun sales coincided primarily with fewer impulsive assaults and points towards reduced acts of domestic violence.

Demand Shocks and Firm Investment: Micro-evidence from fiscal retrenchment in Italy

We study the effect of a persistent demand shock on corporate factor utilization. Our identification strategy leverages a legislative change designed to permanently reduce spending in certain targeted municipalities. This change generates an arguably-exogenous drop in the revenue of procurement firms, which differs depending on each firm’s reliance for its revenue on procurement in the targeted municipalities. We find that firms responded to the demand shock by cutting capital rather than labor. We propose a theoretical mechanism based on the irreversibility of capital investment.

Chasing Diamonds and Crowns: Consumer Limited Attention and Seller Response

Online platforms often assign sellers summary symbols based on whether their ratings pass certain thresholds. Consumers may focus on the symbols and pay limited attention to the ratings. This bias leads to discontinuously increased demand at the thresholds. I use a theoretical model to illustrate that sellers will lower the prices before their ratings reach the thresholds and increase their prices afterward due to the positive demand shock. I collect data from Taobao to test the theoretical predictions. Using regression discontinuity, I find that on the demand side, the hourly sales increase significantly when a seller passes the threshold, even conditional on the same item. On the supply side, the prices indeed exhibit a V-shaped pattern with respect to the ratings. Furthermore, sellers preemptively increase prices shortly before reaching thresholds, supporting the theoretical predictions. This paper was accepted by Juanjuan Zhang, marketing.

Demand or supply shock during the COVID-19 crisis: empirical evidence from public firms in Indonesia

Purpose In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm’s access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm’s capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach The change in firms’ capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms’ investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory. Findings The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms’ capital expenditure. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia.