Model Risk Analysis via Investment Structuring

Historians’ treatment of violence has been dominated by a binary theoretical orientation. A critique of this outlook leads to articulating a new, three-part model of violence as a cultural history problem. Neither functionalist readings in terms of power nor interpretations in terms of signification sufficiently explain violence: it is proposed that risk operates as a bridging category, bringing out the unique features violence introduces to the general social contest over domination and meaning. This chapter details the insights drawn from three key risk analysis theories—prospect theory, edgework, and the calculus of jeopardy—to model risk as a dimension of violence. It defines key concepts used throughout the book: violence (‘forceful physical action apt to cause harm’), power, signification, and risk, as well as risk magnitude, likelihood, realms, and domains

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Bermudan swaption model risk analysis: a local volatility approach

The Journal of Computational Finance ◽

10.21314/jcf.2018.353 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Juliusz Jablecki

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Model Risk ◽

Local Volatility

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A bio-economic simulation study on the association between key performance indicators and pluck lesions in Irish farrow-to-finish pig farms

Porcine Health Management ◽

10.1186/s40813-020-00176-w ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Julia Adriana Calderón Díaz ◽

Maria Rodrigues da Costa ◽

Laurence Shalloo ◽

Jarkko K. Niemi ◽

Finola Catherine Leonard ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Performance Indicators ◽

Average Daily Gain ◽

Monte Carlo Sampling ◽

Economic Benefits ◽

Production Model ◽

Lower Probability ◽

Gross Margin ◽

Model Risk ◽

Net Profit

Abstract Background Pluck lesions are associated with decreased performance in grower-finisher pigs, but their economic impact needs to be further investigated. This study aimed to identify the main pluck lesions and the cut-off value for their prevalence, associated with changes in average daily gain (ADG) during the wean-to-finish period, to simulate their effects on economic performance of farrow-to-finish farms. Pigs (n = 162 ± 51.9 per farm) from 56 farrow-to-finish farms were inspected at slaughter and the prevalence of enzootic pneumonia-like lesions, pleurisy, lung scars, abscesses, pericarditis, and liver milk spots was estimated. For each farm, annual performance indicators were obtained. Regression trees analysis (RTA) was used to identify pluck lesions and to estimate cut-off values for their prevalence associated with changes in ADG. Different scenarios were simulated as per RTA results and economic and risk analyses were performed using the Teagasc Pig Production Model. Risk analysis was performed by Monte Carlo sampling using the Microsoft Excel add-in @Risk with 10,000 iterations. Results Pleurisy and lung scars were the main lesions associated with changes in ADG. Three scenarios were simulated based on RTA results: a 728 sow farrow-to-finish farm with prevalence of i) pleurisy < 25% and lung scars < 8% (LPLSC; ADG = 760 g); ii) pleurisy < 25% and lung scar ≥8% (LPHSC; ADG = 725 g) and iii) pleurisy ≥25% (HP; ADG = 671 g). The economic analysis showed increased feed and dead animals for disposal costs, and lower sales in the HP and LPHSC scenarios than in the LPLSC scenario; thereby reducing gross margin and net profit. Results from the risk analysis showed lower probability of reaching any given level of profit in the HP scenario compared with the LPHSC and LPLSC scenarios. Conclusion Under the conditions of this study, higher prevalence of pleurisy and lung scars were associated with decreased ADG during the grower-finisher period and with lower economic return in the simulated farms. These results highlight the economic benefits and importance of preventing and/or controlling respiratory disease.

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Sunset Company: Risk Analysis For Capital Budgeting Using Simulation And Binary Linear Programming

Journal of Business Case Studies (JBCS) ◽

10.19030/jbcs.v4i3.4767 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 43 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dennis F. Togo

Keyword(s):

Linear Programming ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Probability Distributions ◽

New Products ◽

Capital Budgeting ◽

Expected Value ◽

Model Risk ◽

Binary Linear Programming ◽

Capital Constraints

The Sunset Company case illustrates how the study of linear programming and risk analysis are facilitated with popular spreadsheets and their simulation add-ins. From new products having a singular expected value for NPV, binary linear programming (BLP) optimally selects the combination of products that maximizes total NPV given capital constraints. Yet, when probability distributions are used to model risk of the products, an optimized simulation finds a different set of products for a risk adverse strategy. Advances in spreadsheet technology facilitate accounting educators introducing meaningful modeling and risk analysis into the classroom.

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