Response to Parnell, Smith, and Moxley, Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model, Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 1, 2010

Risk Analysis ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 875-875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Ezell ◽  
Andrew J. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Model Risk

scholarly journals Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model

Risk Analysis ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory S. Parnell ◽  
Christopher M. Smith ◽  
Frederick I. Moxley
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Management Model

scholarly journals Flood Risk Analysis of Different Climatic Phenomena during Flood Season Based on Copula-based Bayesian Network Method: A Case Study of Taihu Basin, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luo ◽  
Dong ◽  
Guan ◽  
Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Taihu Lake ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Taihu Basin

We propose a flood risk management model for the Taihu Basin, China, that considers the spatial and temporal differences of flood risk caused by the different climatic phenomena. In terms of time, the probability distribution of climatic phenomenon occurrence time was used to divide the flood season into plum rain and the typhoon periods. In terms of space, the Taihu Basin was divided into different sub-regions by the Copula functions. Finally, we constructed a flood risk management model using the Copula-based Bayesian network to analyze the flood risk. The results showed the plum rain period occurs from June 24 to July 21 and the typhoon period from July 22 to September 22. Considering the joint distribution of sub-region precipitation and the water level of Taihu Lake, we divided the Taihu Basin into three sub-regions (P-I, P-II, and P-III) for risk analysis in the plum rain period. However, the Taihu Basin was used as a whole for flood risk analysis in the typhoon period. Risk analysis indicated a probability of 2.4%, and 0.8%, respectively, for future adverse drainage during the plum rain period and the typhoon period, the flood risk increases rapidly with the rising water level in the Taihu Lake.

Modelli di business e modelli manageriali della banca. Dal rischio di business model al rischio strategico. Verso una revisione del framework dei rischi bancari?

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2020) ◽  
pp. 15-28
Author(s):  
Maurizio Baravelli ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Position Paper ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Model Risk ◽  
Strategic Risk ◽  
Risk Framework

The paper takes up the theoretical aspects that I dealt with in the first part of the AIFIRM-APB position paper, Business Model and SREP: the role of the CRO and the CFO and which I commented on in the Webinar of last July 9th. Starting from a defining framework, I deepen the theme of business model risk and its relationship with strategic risk. And I raise the question of revising the banking risk framework. In particular, I highlight how the business model and strategic risk depend on the management model. At the same time, ample space is dedicated to illustrating how the management model risk influences the sustainability of the business model. I examine the operational implications of the theoretical framework of the business model and propose a review of the business planning process. The purpose of the article is to start a debate with the intervention of risk management specialists above all.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Grid Cyber-Physical System Risk Management Model Based on Cooperative Game Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cunbin Li ◽  
Ding Liu ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Chunyan Liang
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cooperative Game ◽  
Physical System ◽  
Cooperative Game Theory ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Cyber Physical System ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Generation Power

AbstractAdvanced grid technology represented by smart grid and energy internet is the core feature of the next-generation power grid. The next-generation power grid will be a large-scale cyber-physical system (CPS), which will have a higher level of risk management due to its flexibility in sensing and control. This paper explains the methods and results of a study on grid CPS’s behavior after risk. Firstly, a behavior model based on hybrid automata is built to simulate grid CPS’s risk decisions. Then, a GCPS risk transfer model based on cooperative game theory is built. The model allows decisions to ignore complex network structures. On this basis, a modified applicant-proposing algorithm to achieve risk optimum is proposed. The risk management model proposed in this paper can provide references for power generation and transmission decision after risk as well as risk aversion, an empirical study in north China verifies its validity.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Systems with a Discontinuous Hysteresis Operator and Interval Translation Maps

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Sergey Kryzhevich ◽  
Viktor Avrutin ◽  
Nikita Begun ◽  
Dmitrii Rachinskii ◽  
Khosro Tajbakhsh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Invariant Measure ◽  
Invariant Measures ◽  
Interval Exchange ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Closing Lemma ◽  
Symbolic Model ◽  
Metric Properties ◽  
Ergodic Measures ◽  
Maximal Invariant

We studied topological and metric properties of the so-called interval translation maps (ITMs). For these maps, we introduced the maximal invariant measure and demonstrated that an ITM, endowed with such a measure, is metrically conjugated to an interval exchange map (IEM). This allowed us to extend some properties of IEMs (e.g., an estimate of the number of ergodic measures and the minimality of the symbolic model) to ITMs. Further, we proved a version of the closing lemma and studied how the invariant measures depend on the parameters of the system. These results were illustrated by a simple example or a risk management model where interval translation maps appear naturally.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document