A Stochastic Formulation of the Bass Model of New-Product Diffusion

PSO Based Grey Bass Model for Simulating New Product Diffusion

International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering - 2 ◽

10.35940/ijrte.f8212.038620 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 2006-2011

Keyword(s):

Subjective Experience ◽

New Product ◽

Study Data ◽

Least Square ◽

Percentage Error ◽

Bass Model ◽

Product Diffusion ◽

Raw Data ◽

New Product Diffusion ◽

Potential Capacity

The Bass model is one of the basic models for new product diffusion analysis. But the Bass model requires a large quantity of raw data to determine parameters of Bass model and this model also uses the potential capacity of market based on the subjective experience. To solve the problem of necessity of large raw data of Bass model, Wang put forward the Grey Bass model. Wang used non-linear least square (NLS) method to find the parameters of Grey Bass model and to assess the potential capacity of market. In the present paper a more appropriate method for Grey Bass equation is offered which estimates potential capacity of market even if the sample size is small. The proposed model is based on the minimization of sum of square of error between actual and predicted data using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique. Using the case study data, as used by Wang, the accuracy of the improved method is investigated. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the present case is 6.52 % compared to 7.93% reported by Wang.

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The business model of Chinese movies

Journal of Contemporary Marketing Science ◽

10.1108/jcmars-02-2019-0015 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 246-261

Author(s):

Man Chen ◽

Xiaomin Han ◽

Xinguo Zhang ◽

Feng Wang

Keyword(s):

Business Model ◽

Motion Picture ◽

New Product ◽

Motion Picture Industry ◽

Bass Model ◽

Product Diffusion ◽

Content Type ◽

Box Office ◽

New Product Diffusion ◽

The Us

Purpose The motion picture industry is a cultural and creative industry. Unlike its US counterpart, the Chinese motion picture industry is still developing. Therefore, learning from the US market, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the business model of Chinese movies from the perspective of new product diffusion. Design/methodology/approach Based on 66 movies released in the US and 21 movies released in China, this paper first compares the diffusion curves of Chinese and US movies through the movie life cycle and box office trends. Next, it analyzes the moviegoing behaviors of Chinese and US audiences based on the innovation and imitation coefficients in the Bass model. Finally, it compares the attention to information of Chinese and US audiences from the perspective of interpersonal word-of-mouth (WOM). Findings In the USA, a movie’s highest weekly box office is usually in its opening week, followed by a weekly decline in revenue; in China, there is no difference in box office performance between the first two weeks, but a weekly decline in revenue similarly follows. US audiences pay more attention to advertisements for movies than WOM recommendations, while Chinese people pay more attention to WOM recommendations. Neither the Chinese nor the US market differs in the volume of WOM between the first week before release and the opening week, and these two weeks are the most active period of WOM in both markets. Practical implications During the production phase for Chinese movies, we should satisfy opinion leaders’ needs. During the distribution phase, we should not only focus on market spending before the movie’s release, but also increase market spending in the opening week. During the theater release phase, we should stimulate WOM communication between moviegoers and thereby attract many more opinion seekers. Originality/value Few studies have investigated the Chinese motion picture industry from the perspective of new products. This paper compares and analyzes the diffusion of Chinese and US movies using the Bass model of new product diffusion, providing systematic theoretical guidelines for the commercial operation of the Chinese motion picture industry.

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The NLS-based Grey Bass Model for Simulating New Product Diffusion

International Journal of Market Research ◽

10.2501/ijmr-2017-045 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 59 (5) ◽

pp. 655-669 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Yanyu Wang ◽

Lingling Pei ◽

Zhengxin Wang

Keyword(s):

Subjective Experience ◽

Least Squares Method ◽

New Product ◽

Small Sample ◽

Grey Theory ◽

Bass Model ◽

Product Diffusion ◽

New Product Diffusion ◽

Potential Market ◽

Market Capacity

To solve the problems inherent in the existing Bass model, this paper develops a grey Bass model using a non-linear least squares method (NLS) and provides the whitenisation solution of differential equations. A Bass model exploits the specific advantage in simulating and predicting new product diffusion. Unfortunately, the existing Bass model has two problems: one lies in the conflict between the small sample support in new product diffusion and the large sample requirement in Bass model estimations; the other is over-reliance on the subjective experience in estimating potential market capacity. Although Wang et al. (2011) proposed the grey Bass model to solve the first problem, the second problem remains untouched. Based on this work by Wang and colleagues, the improved method described in this paper is not only suitable for the small sample situation, but also directly estimates potential market capacity. Using the WeChat case, the authors test the improved method's estimation and prediction effects. The results show that the estimations for internal coefficient, external coefficient and potential market capacity are all significant at the 1% level, and the prediction effect in grey theory critical level reaches level 1. Additionally, internal and external sample prediction are both consistent with the raw data and company report.

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A New Grey Bass Equation for Modelling New Product Diffusion

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.291-294.3033 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 291-294 ◽

pp. 3033-3036 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Zheng Xin Wang

Keyword(s):

Nonlinear Programming ◽

New Product ◽

Power Exponent ◽

Power Model ◽

Bass Model ◽

Product Diffusion ◽

New Model ◽

New Product Diffusion ◽

Grey Verhulst Model ◽

Nonlinear Programming Method

A novel grey Bass model with a power exponent (Grey Bass Power Model) was proposed, and the related parameter-packets of the model were deduced. A nonlinear programming method was employed to optimize the grey parameters and improve the accuracy of the grey Bass model. The results show that GM(1,1) model, GPM (1,1) model, grey Verhulst model and grey Bass model are the special examples of grey Bass power model. The actual example of product diffusion shows the modelling accuracy has been remarkably improved by using the new model.

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