Monitoring and Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in France after Deconfinement Using a Multiscale and Age-Dependent Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jurgen Reingruber ◽  
Andrea Papale ◽  
David Holcman

2006 ◽  
Vol 136 (11) ◽  
pp. 2916-2920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia M. C. M. Waijers ◽  
Arnold L. M. Dekkers ◽  
Jolanda M. A. Boer ◽  
Hendriek C. Boshuizen ◽  
Caroline T. M. van Rossum




Risk Analysis ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 945-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesa L. Aylward ◽  
Robert C. Brunet ◽  
Thomas B. Starr ◽  
Gaetan Carrier ◽  
Elizabeth Delzell ◽  
...  


2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin A. Pfeiffer ◽  
Kathleen B. Watson ◽  
Robert G. McMurray ◽  
David R. Bassett ◽  
Nancy F. Butte ◽  
...  

Purpose:This study compared the accuracy of physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) prediction using 2 methods of accounting for age dependency versus 1 standard (single) value across all ages.Methods:PAEE estimates were derived by pooling data from 5 studies. Participants, 6–18 years (n = 929), engaged in 14 activities while in a room calorimeter or wearing a portable metabolic analyzer. Linear regression was used to estimate the measurement error in PAEE (expressed as youth metabolic equivalent) associated with using age groups (6–9, 10–12, 13–15, and 16–18 y) and age-in-years [each year of chronological age (eg, 12 = 12.0–12.99 y)] versus the standard (a single value across all ages).Results:Age groups and age-in-years showed similar error, and both showed less error than the standard method for cycling, skilled, and moderate- to vigorous-intensity activities. For sedentary and light activities, the standard had similar error to the other 2 methods. Mean values for root mean square error ranged from 0.2 to 1.7 youth metabolic equivalent across all activities. Error reduction ranged from −0.2% to 21.7% for age groups and −0.23% to 18.2% for age-in-years compared with the standard.Conclusions:Accounting for age showed lower errors than a standard (single) value; using an age-dependent model in the Youth Compendium is recommended.



1983 ◽  
Vol 44 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 91???102
Author(s):  
J. R. Johnson


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 342
Author(s):  
K. C. Stamoulis ◽  
P. A. Assimakopoulos ◽  
K. G. Ioannides

Strontium-90 concentration in human bones and teeth, collected in Greece during the period 1992-1996, was measured. One hundred and five bone samples, mainly cancelous (spongy) bone, and 108 samples, involving a total of 896 individual teeth, were processed. Samples were classified according to age and sex of the donors. Radiostrontium concentration in bone samples showed small variations with regard to age or sex, yielding an average value of 30 mBq concentration measurements in teeth evinced a pronounced structure, which clearly reflects contamination from the 1960s atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and the more recent Chernobyl accident. This difference is attributed to the different bone texture of skeletal bones and teeth, the later consisting mainly of compact bone.An age-dependent model for radiostrontium concentration in human bones and teeth was developed, which was able to successfully reproduce the experimental data. Through a fitting process, the model also yielded calcium turnover rates for compact bone as a function of age, as well as an estimate of radiostrontium con- tamination of foodstaffs in Greece for the past four decades.



1988 ◽  
Vol 120 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven E. Naranjo ◽  
Alan J. Sawyer

AbstractBased on data collected at seven constant temperatures, a temperature- and age-dependent model for reproductive development and oviposition by Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence was developed. The model couples temperature-dependent rate and temperature-independent distribution models to represent the observed variability in developmental times for pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive females. Using a cohort approach to maintain a physiological age structure, development was coupled with a temperature- and age-dependent model of oviposition. The model was validated at one constant-temperature and three variable-temperature regimes in the laboratory. The time spent in the pre-reproductive stage was slightly underestimated by the model, but the development of mature females and both the timing and magnitude of oviposition under fluctuating-temperature regimes were accurately predicted. The model was relatively insensitive to errors in estimation of the rate of development in the pre-reproductive stage but sensitive to errors in estimation of developmental rate of the reproductive stage and fecundity. Errors in input temperatures were found to be very important, stressing the need for accurately measuring temperature, The major driving variable. The model should be a valuable aid toward understanding oviposition by D. barberi in the field.



Parasitology ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 127 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. KARVONEN ◽  
S. PAUKKU ◽  
E. T. VALTONEN ◽  
P. J. HUDSON

The transmission dynamics of the cercariae of Diplostomum spathaceum were investigated under laboratory conditions using cercariae collected from naturally infected Lymnaea stagnalis. Cercariae were kept in a constant temperature of 20 °C and the survival and infectivity to naïve young rainbow trout recorded at 3-h intervals until few cercariae were alive. Mortality initially remained constant but increased rapidly after 20 h. While a model of constant mortality fitted the survival data, an age-dependent model provided a better fit and implied that cercariae tended to carry similar quantities of resources and once these were exhausted the cercariae died. Cercarial infectivity also showed an age-dependent pattern although infectivity tended (P=0·09) to increase with age over the first 6 h of life and then fall. The per capita transmission rate of cercariae was investigated by experimentally infecting rainbow trout under standardized conditions, first with an increasing cercarial density and second, by keeping density constant but increasing numbers of cercariae. The per capita transmission rate was frequency dependent and averaged 0·341/h (±0·036).



1991 ◽  
Vol 38 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 23-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.H. Becquemin ◽  
C.P. Yu ◽  
M. Roy ◽  
A. Bouchikhi




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