scholarly journals Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Makram El-Shagi ◽  
Kiril Tochkov



2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-120
Author(s):  
Leigh Drake ◽  
Andy Mullineux ◽  
Juda Agung

Capital uncertain or risky assets are typically excluded from traditional broad monetary aggregates. Barnett et al (1997), however, extend the Divisia aggregation methodology to incorporate such assets. In addition, recent evidence provided by Drake et al (1998) suggests that risky assets are close substitutes for monetary assets. This paper constructs “wide” Divisia monetary aggregates which include risky assets such as unit trusts (mutual funds), equities and bonds, and contrasts their empirical properties with conventional Divisia and simple sum broad money aggregates. The key finding in the paper is that a “wide” monetary aggregate, which incorporates unit trusts, exhibits a stable long run and dynamic money demand function, has good leading indicator properties in the context of Granger causality tests, and tends to outperform all other aggregates on the basis of non-nested tests.JEL : E41, C43, E52 



2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1137-1153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jauhari Dahalan ◽  
Subhash C. Sharma ◽  
Kevin Sylwester


Algorithms ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Periklis Gogas ◽  
Theophilos Papadimitriou ◽  
Emmanouil Sofianos

The issue of whether or not money affects real economic activity (money neutrality) has attracted significant empirical attention over the last five decades. If money is neutral even in the short-run, then monetary policy is ineffective and its role limited. If money matters, it will be able to forecast real economic activity. In this study, we test the traditional simple sum monetary aggregates that are commonly used by central banks all over the world and also the theoretically correct Divisia monetary aggregates proposed by the Barnett Critique (Chrystal and MacDonald, 1994; Belongia and Ireland, 2014), both in three levels of aggregation: M1, M2, and M3. We use them to directionally forecast the Eurocoin index: A monthly index that measures the growth rate of the euro area GDP. The data span from January 2001 to June 2018. The forecasting methodology we employ is support vector machines (SVM) from the area of machine learning. The empirical results show that: (a) The Divisia monetary aggregates outperform the simple sum ones and (b) both monetary aggregates can directionally forecast the Eurocoin index reaching the highest accuracy of 82.05% providing evidence against money neutrality even in the short term.



1992 ◽  
Vol 74 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Thornton ◽  
Piyu Yue


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