Do the US Macroeconomic News Announcements Explain Turn-of-the-Month and Intramonth Anomalies on European Stock Markets?

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the spillover effect of 14 US key macroeconomic news on the first two moments of 12 Asian stock market returns. Design/methodology/approach – The authors collect market expectation and actual scheduled announcements data for 14 key US's macroeconomic announcements from January 2002 to April 2012 from Bloomberg. The dataset consists of six groups: monetary policy and general macroeconomic indicators: the Federal Reserve's target interest rates (FOMC), gross domestic product (GDP), and leading indicator (LI); price indicators: consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI); business indicator: housing starts (HS) and industrial production (IP); consumption indicators: retail sales (RS) and consumer confidence level (CONSUM); labor market indicators: non-farm payroll (NFP), unemployment level (UE), and jobless claim (JOB); and external sector indicators: current account (CA) and trade balance (TB). The authors also collect daily opening and closing data of 12 Asian stock markets. Following Dow Jones classification, the authors divide them into two groups: five developed markets (Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan), and seven emerging markets (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). The MA-EGARCH (1,1) model is used for the empirical test. Findings – First, the authors find that stronger than expected news from the USA is associated with higher conditional mean and lower conditional variance of the Asian stock market returns, in general. Second, the Asian stock markets tend to put more weight on information relating to the US labor market than the other news as this indicator reveals much information about the underlying health of the US economy since full employment is the most important mandate for the US administration and policy makers. Third, in responding to the US news, the Asian emerging markets seem to respond stronger to the US news than the Asian developed markets both in terms of the number of responses and the magnitude of the reaction. This suggests that this could be seen as evidence that emerging markets are more dependent on the information content of the US news than the developed markets. Fourth, the US news is absorbed gradually leading to persisting volatility responses in the Asian stock markets. Originality/value – The authors fill a gap in the extant literature in investigating the speeds of the news absorption across the Asia region by examining the spillover effects across three time horizons, namely daily, overnight and intraday.

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Do Australian and the US macroeconomic news announcements affect the USD/AUD exchange rate? Some evidence from E-GARCH estimations

Journal of Multinational Financial Management ◽

10.1016/s1042-444x(98)00029-2 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 8 (2-3) ◽

pp. 233-248 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Suk-Joong Kim

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Macroeconomic News ◽

News Announcements ◽

The Us

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Changes in stock markets interdependencies as a result of the global financial crisis: Empirical investigation on the CEE region

Panoeconomicus ◽

10.2298/pan1104525t ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 58 (4) ◽

pp. 525-543 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Cristiana Tudor

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Leading Role ◽

The Us ◽

The Usa ◽

The Global Financial Crisis ◽

Stock Indexes ◽

European Stock Markets

This paper investigates causal relationships and short-term interaction mechanisms among six Central and Eastern European stock markets and the USA stock exchange, while paying special consideration to the effects of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. We employ daily observations for the six CEE stock indexes and also for the US market covering the period January 2006-March 2009, which is subsequently divided into two sub-periods corresponding to the pre-crisis and crisis period. The study reveals that the relationships among CEE stock markets are time varying. While before the crisis stock market linkages are limited, we find that during crisis these interactions become significantly stronger. Our results further suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in different CEE markets is limited during financial turmoil. Other findings reveal the leading role of the Russian market in the CEE region before the crisis. Also, before the crisis CEE markets were significantly influenced by innovations in the USA market, thus explaining why they were affected heavily by the crisis, which has managed to spread immediately in the region.

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To What Extent are Stock Returns Driven by Mean and Volatility Spillover Effects? – Evidence from Eight European Stock Markets

Review of Economic Perspectives ◽

10.2478/v10135-012-0013-7 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 3-29 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Abdulla Alikhanov

Keyword(s):

Stock Returns ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Spillover Effects ◽

Volatility Spillover ◽

Volatility Spillovers ◽

The Us ◽

Variance Ratios ◽

Market Shocks ◽

European Stock Markets ◽

The U.S

Abstract The paper investigates mean and volatility spillover effects from the U.S and EU stock markets as well as oil price market into national stock markets of eight European countries. The study finds strong indication of volatility spillover effects from the US-global, EU-regional, and the world factor oil towards individual stock markets. While both mean and volatility spillover transmissions from the US are found to be significant, EU mean spillover effects are negligible. To evaluate the magnitude of volatility spillovers, the variance ratios are also computed and the results draw to attention that the individual emerging countries’ stock returns are mostly influenced by the U.S volatility spillovers rather than EU or oil markets. Additionally, examination of only global and regional stock markets spillover transmissions into European stock markets also confirms the dominating presence of the U.S spillover transmissions. Furthermore, I also implement asymmetric tests on stock returns of eight markets. The stock market returns of Hungary, Poland, Russia and the Ukraine are found to respond asymmetrically to negative and positive shocks in the US stock returns. The weak evidence of asymmetric effects with respect to oil market shocks is found only in the case of Russia and the quantified variance ratios indicate that presence of oil market shocks are relatively higher for Russia. Moreover, a model with dummy variable confirms the effect of European Union enlargement on stock returns only for Romania. Finally, a conditional model suggests that the spillover effects are partially explained by instrumental macroeconomic variables, out of which exchange rate fluctuations play the key role in explaining the spillover parameters rather than total trade to GDP ratios in most investigated countries.

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