An Analysis and Comparison of Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Model Performance during Pandemic Situations in Developed and Emerging Markets

This study empirically analyzes and compares return data from developed and emerging market data based on the Fama French five-factor model and compares it to previous results from the Fama French three-factor model by Kostin, Runge and Adams (2021). It researches whether the addition of the profitability and investment pattern factors show superior results in the assessment of emerging markets during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to developed markets. We use panel data covering eight indices of developed and emerging countries as well as a selection of eight companies from these markets, covering a period from 2000 to 2020. Our findings suggest that emerging markets do not generally outperform developed markets. The results underscore the need to reconsider the assumption that adding more factors to regression models automatically yields results that are more reliable. Our study contributes to the extant literature by broadening this research area. It is the first study to compare the performance of the Fama French three-factor model and the Fama French five-factor model in the cost of equity calculation for developed and emerging countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and other crisis events of the past two decades.

Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Time-varying Contrarian Effect: Evidence From Emerging Stock Markets of South Asia

This study contributes to the growing debate on the relation between varying stock market conditions and the profitability of stock market anomalies. We investigate the effect of changed market conditions on time-varying contrarian profitability in order to examine the presence of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) in South Asian emerging stock markets. The empirical findings reveal that a strong contrarian effect holds in all the emerging markets. We also find the stock return opportunities vary over time based on contrarian portfolios. We show that contrarian returns strengthen during the down state of market, higher volatility and crises periods, particularly during the Asian financial crisis. Interestingly, the market state instead of market volatility is the primary predictor of contrarian payoffs, which contradicts the findings of developed markets. We argue that the linkage arises from structural and psychological differences in emerging markets that produce unique intuitions regarding stock market anomalies returns. The overall findings on the time-varying contrarian returns in this study provide partial support to AMH. Another significant outcome of this study implies that investors in South Asian emerging markets, like investors in the developed markets, could not adapt to evolving market conditions. Therefore, contrarian profits often exist, and persistent weak-form market inefficiencies prevail in these markets.

The role of crowdfunding as an instrument of innovative transformation of capital markets

Subject. The article investigates crowdfunding as a new element of the capital market. Objectives. The purpose is to identify the role of crowdfunding in the modern capital market and in the financial market in general, systematize the ideas of what crowdfunding is and classify them, suggest possible future areas for its development. Methods. The study employs methods of logical and statistical analysis, systematization, and deduction. Results. The paper offers a classification of crowdfunding based on three main characteristics, i.e. purposes, geographic model, and financial nature. The performed statistical analysis proved that the main recipients of funds on the crowdfunding platforms are enterprises involved in creative activities, since they either do not have any access to traditional financing instruments or the financing is expensive. I identify a number of directions for the development of crowdfunding, like auction, innovation, and social. Conclusions. The research has practical and theoretical significance. It can be used for further investigation of crowdfunding and its social role. Government agencies may apply the main findings of this study when developing programs for the introduction of crowdfunding as a financial instrument in Russia. Furthermore, the paper may be interesting for crowdfunding platforms both in the new markets, as it enables to identify their target audience, and in developed markets, as the result of the study is to reveal new directions for crowdfunding development.

A matter of others' money: How cash holdings of other firms affect a firm’s cash holding?

PurposeThis study examines the effects of comparable companies, within the same industry, on cash-holding (CH) levels of a specific firm in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Peer effects are hypothesized to affect a firm's average CH levels.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use data of listed firms in the Thai stock markets from 1995 to 2018. The sample consists of 5,277 firm-year observations. The authors perform robustness tests by incorporating gross domestic product, economy and competitiveness.FindingsPeer firms' CH levels correspond positively to the specific firm's CH. This strengthens further for firms with high cash flow volatility during periods of high competition. Unfavorable economic periods also motivate the association between a firm's CH and peer firms' CH.Practical implicationsA policy on CH should account for cash held by peer firms. Firms can justify their CH policy as compatible with peers' cash flows, especially during periods of competitiveness and an unfavorable economy.Originality/valueThe authors provide novel evidence on how emerging markets' CH levels differ from those in developed markets and propose adjusted explanations for the rivalry- and information-based theories. The findings add substantial knowledge to corporate finance by arguing that CH policies are based on peer firms' strategic moves.

COVID-19 Vaccinations and the Volatility of Energy Companies in International Markets

The COVID-19 pandemic has elevated both the risk and volatility of energy companies. Can mass vaccinations restore stability within this sector? To answer this question, we investigate stock market data from fifty-eight countries from January 2020 to April 2021. We document that vaccination programs assist in decreasing the volatility of energy stocks around the world. The drop in volatility is statistically and economically significant and robust to many considerations. The observed phenomenon survives a broad battery of control variables; it is also independent of the employed regression model or the volatility measurement approach. Moreover, the effect is not driven by the dynamics of the pandemic itself or the associated government interventions. Finally, we find the influence of vaccinations on energy stock volatility to be more pronounced in developed markets rather than in emerging ones. Our findings bear clear practical implications: policy makers around the world should consider the essential role of vaccinations in the energy sector.

The role of socio-psychological and personality antecedents in luxury consumption: a meta-analytic review

PurposeThis paper conducts a meta-analytic review of literature focused on the salient socio-psychological and personality antecedents of luxury purchase intention. It investigates the role of moderators that can assist an effective market segmentation of the luxury market in both emerging and developed economies.Design/methodology/approachThe final analysis includes 95 effect sizes from 42 studies conducted in 15 countries, spanning 5 continents, from 2000 to 2020. The review examined moderating role of Hofstede's cultural dimensions, market type (emerging vs developed) and other study characteristics.FindingsFindings show that socio-psychological antecedents had a more salient role than personality antecedents in driving luxury purchase intention (LPI), across both emerging and developed markets. Normative influence, status consumption and materialism exhibited a stronger influence on LPI in emerging markets than developed markets. Further, stronger effects for normative influence and status consumption on LPI were found in high power distance cultures. The role of seeking uniqueness was more salient and the role of normative influence was less salient in studies with a higher percentage of females. Conspicuous consumption was a stronger driver of LPI for fashion luxury products than other luxury products. The study also proposes distinct definitions of status and conspicuous consumption as there is often theoretical overlap of these constructs in literature.Research limitations/implicationsA meta-analytic review may leave blind-spots due to lack of sufficient number of studies investigating certain theoretically relevant moderators. The authors discuss these gaps, along with study limitations.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous study has conducted a meta-analytic review of the antecedents and moderators of LPI. With the extension of luxury demand beyond the developed countries in the West to the “new rich” consumers in the East, it becomes imperative to conduct a meta-analysis for a richer understanding of the drivers of luxury demand across different cultural orientations and market segmentations.

The effect of political risk on emerging and developed markets

<p>This thesis consists of three substantive chapters (3, 4, 5) on the impact of political risk on equity and exchange rate returns and their volatilities. Chapter 3 proposes a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the country’s political risk. We identify the appropriate lag to to calculate changes over, and how the changes should be included in mean and volatility equations. The level of aggregation of political risk variable is also examined. Analysing 47 emerging and 21 developed markets, we find predictive power primarily for volatility of emerging markets, and recommended use of three political risk components which suitably capture important dimensions of political environment. In the Chapter 4 we empirically examines the impact of political risk on returns and volatility of individual firms and industry portfolios from New Zealand and Pakistan. The data used in the study consist of 184 firms from New Zealand and 202 firms from Pakistan along with country-level political risk data from the ICRG. As in the , we find in Chapter 3 that the impact of political risk is more on volatility than the returns of firms in both markets. As we expect, the impact of political risk is more on Pakistani firms compared to those in New Zealand. Overall, results from the industry portfolios are according to the hypothesis that political risk impact is different across industries (volatility increase for some industries and decrease for few). Chapter 5 examine the relationship between political risk variables on the nominal exchange rate return and its volatility. We again investigate developed versus developed markets, and also consider three different exchange rate regimes i.e. floating, managed floating and fixed. This is important to examine the link between political risk and exchange rate because there are two sources of political risk one on either side of the exchange rate. In our analysis, we use the political risk spread between the country of interest and the USA. Overall results reveal that emerging markets are more exposed to political risk compared to developed. Further, the impact of political risk variables is more on the floating exchange rate compared to managed floating and fixed exchange rate as might be expected, since intervention in the market will generally reduce to eliminate the influence of alternative factors. We also find strong evidence that volatility increases more during a period of high political risk and poor economic conditions for emerging markets.</p>

The effect of political risk on emerging and developed markets

<p>This thesis consists of three substantive chapters (3, 4, 5) on the impact of political risk on equity and exchange rate returns and their volatilities. Chapter 3 proposes a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the country’s political risk. We identify the appropriate lag to to calculate changes over, and how the changes should be included in mean and volatility equations. The level of aggregation of political risk variable is also examined. Analysing 47 emerging and 21 developed markets, we find predictive power primarily for volatility of emerging markets, and recommended use of three political risk components which suitably capture important dimensions of political environment. In the Chapter 4 we empirically examines the impact of political risk on returns and volatility of individual firms and industry portfolios from New Zealand and Pakistan. The data used in the study consist of 184 firms from New Zealand and 202 firms from Pakistan along with country-level political risk data from the ICRG. As in the , we find in Chapter 3 that the impact of political risk is more on volatility than the returns of firms in both markets. As we expect, the impact of political risk is more on Pakistani firms compared to those in New Zealand. Overall, results from the industry portfolios are according to the hypothesis that political risk impact is different across industries (volatility increase for some industries and decrease for few). Chapter 5 examine the relationship between political risk variables on the nominal exchange rate return and its volatility. We again investigate developed versus developed markets, and also consider three different exchange rate regimes i.e. floating, managed floating and fixed. This is important to examine the link between political risk and exchange rate because there are two sources of political risk one on either side of the exchange rate. In our analysis, we use the political risk spread between the country of interest and the USA. Overall results reveal that emerging markets are more exposed to political risk compared to developed. Further, the impact of political risk variables is more on the floating exchange rate compared to managed floating and fixed exchange rate as might be expected, since intervention in the market will generally reduce to eliminate the influence of alternative factors. We also find strong evidence that volatility increases more during a period of high political risk and poor economic conditions for emerging markets.</p>

Subsidiaries’ behavioural responses to volatile local contexts in emerging African markets: evidence from Nigeria

Purpose This paper aims to explore subsidiaries’ behavioural responses to volatile institutional pressures in the local context of the emerging Nigerian market. Design/methodology/approach The authors built on institutional and contingency theory to analyse previous literature on developed markets and apply it to African contexts. The authors used a context-specific volatile local context model to show how porous formal and strong informal institutions constitute international business (IB) as a contested terrain in the host country. The authors also used a qualitative methodology, involving multiple actors, to investigate this phenomenon in practice. Findings The findings indicated different types of institutional pressures shaping volatile local contexts, which together or separately impact subsidiaries, depending on their degree of exposure. Subsidiaries behaviourally respond to cope with these pressures through inclusive negotiations involving their home and host countries’ networks. Originality/value Previous research has imposed developed markets’ norms on emerging African markets, regardless of their volatility. As subsidiaries’ responses to local contexts in emerging African markets are poorly understood, the authors developed a volatile local context model, showing how IB becomes a contested terrain in host countries and the authors proposed a model that differentiates between informal institutions. The authors highlighted the impact of contextual pressures on subsidiaries, according to their levels of exposure to the local context. The authors concluded that committed alignment with a local context is necessary for presenting an effective contingent response to its volatilities.