Quantifying the hedge and safe-haven properties of bond markets for cryptocurrency indices

PurposeThis study quantified the hedge and safe haven features of bond markets for multiple cryptocurrency indices from June 2014 to April 2021 to highlight whether bond markets offer hedging facilities to uncertainty indices of cryptocurrencies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employed the methodology of Baur and McDermott (2010) and AGDCC-GARCH model to measure the hedge and safe-haven characteristics of three bond markets (BBGT, SPGB and SKUK) for three uncertainty indexes of cryptocurrencies (UCRPR, UCRPO and ICEA).FindingsThe authors find that bond markets are neither hedge nor safe havens except for SKUK which is a safe haven investment for cryptocurrency indices and offers substantial diversification during the periods of economic fragility. In addition, the hedge effectiveness of SPGB outperforms other bonds during crisis periods and provides sufficient diversification potential for cryptocurrency indices.Practical implicationsThe findings are important for policymakers, regulatory bodies, financial firms and investors in assessing hedge and safe haven characteristics of bond markets against cryptocurrency indices.Originality/valueEmploying the novel methodology of AGDCC-GARCH with three different bond markets and three uncertainty indices of cryptocurrencies, the current study adds to the existing strand of literature in terms of quantifying hedge and safe-haven attributes of bond markets for cryptocurrency uncertainty indexes.

A comparison of minimum variance and maximum Sharpe ratio portfolios for mainstream investors

PurposeMotivated by the recent theoretical rehabilitation of mean-variance analysis, the authors revisit the question of whether minimum variance (MinVar) or maximum Sharpe ratio (MaxSR) investment weights are preferable in practical portfolio formation.Design/methodology/approachThe authors answer this question with a focus on mainstream investors which can be modeled by a preference for simple portfolio optimization techniques, a tendency to cling to past asset characteristics and a strong interest in index products. Specifically, in a rolling-window approach, the study compares the out-of-sample performance of MinVar and MaxSR portfolios in two asset universes covering multiple asset classes (via investable indices and their subindices) and for two popular input estimation methods (full covariance and single-index model).FindingsThe authors find that, regardless of the setting, there is no statistically significant difference between MinVar and MaxSR portfolio performance. Thus, the choice of approach does not matter for mainstream investors. In addition, the analysis reveals that, contrary to previous research, using a single-index model does not necessarily improve out-of-sample Sharpe ratios.Originality/valueThe study is the first to provide an in-depth comparison of MinVar and MaxSR returns which considers (1) multiple asset classes, (2) a single-index model and (3) state-of-the-art bootstrap performance tests.

Corporate social responsibility and systematic risk: international evidence

PurposeThis paper aims to close gaps in the current literature according to whether there are differences regarding the relationship between corporate social performance (CSP) and systematic risk when diverse regions of the world are considered, and what the respective drivers for this relationship are. Furthermore, it tests the robustness to alternative measures for CSP and systematic risk.Design/methodology/approachThis study focuses on the impact of corporate social responsibility on systematic firm risk in an international sample. The authors measure CSP emerging from a company's social responsibility efforts by utilizing a CSP rating framework that covers a variety of dimensions. The instrumental variable approach is applied to mitigate endogeneity and identify causal relationships.FindingsThe impact of overall CSP on systematic risk is most distinct for North American firms and, in descending order, weaker in Europe, Asia–Pacific and Japan. Risk mitigation applies across all four regions. However, the magnitude of impact differs. While the most critical drivers in North America and Japan include product responsibility, Europe is affected most by the employees category and Asia–Pacific by environmental innovation.Practical implicationsThe findings help firms to control their cost of equity and investors may identify low-risk stocks by considering certain aspects of CSP.Originality/valueThis study distinguishes itself from previous literature addressing the connection between systematic risk and CSP by focusing on regional differences in an international sample, using the very transparent CSP measures of Asset4, identifying underlying impact drivers, and testing for robustness to alternative measures of systematic risk.

Trading activity on social trading platforms – a behavioral approach*

PurposeSocial trading platforms are considered to be amongst the major innovations in online trading. The purpose of this article is to analyze the trading activity of traders on social trading networks by taking a behavioral approach. Additionally, the authors investigate the factors that influence the irrational part of trading activity derived from the key characteristics of these platforms, i.e. those dealing with social interaction.Design/methodology/approachThe investigation utilizes an extensive set of trading data from two major platforms in Germany to study the trading behavior. The authors apply a fixed effects two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach to quantify the relationship between trading activity and performance and define overconfidence as the part of trading activity that is irrationally motivated and results in negative returns.FindingsThe results provide evidence for the negative relationship between overconfidence and return on social trading platforms. The authors find that the number of followers and some platform-specific features significantly affect the trading behavior of the traders.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the existing literature by exploring how the novel social interaction characteristics of online trading impact trading activity by giving rise to a new dimension of overconfidence. In addition, the authors evidence that the different frameworks of the platforms motivate heterogenous behavioral responses by the signalers. Finally, the authors refine existing studies by applying a distinct methodology for modeling overconfidence.

Power law bond price and yield approximation

PurposeThis paper determines a simple transformation that nearly linearizes the bond price formula. The transformed price can be used to derive a highly accurate approximation of the change in a bond price resulting from a change in interest rates.Design/methodology/approachA logarithmic transformation exactly linearizes the price function for a zero coupon bond and a reciprocal transformation exactly linearizes the price function for a perpetuity. A power law transformation combines aspects of both types of transformations and provides a superior approximation of the bond price sensitivity for both short-term and long-term bonds.FindingsIt is demonstrated that the new formula, based on power-law transformation, is a much better approximation than either the traditional duration-convexity approximation and the more recently developed approximations based on logarithmic transformation of the price function.Originality/valueThe new formula will be used by risk managers to perform stress-testing on bond portfolios. The new formula can easily be inverted, making it possible to relate the distribution of prices (which are observable in the market) to the distribution of yields (which are numerical solutions that are not directly observable).

Short- and long-term effects of responsible investment growth on equity returns

PurposeThe growth of socially responsible assets has been exponential over the last decade, they now account for almost a third of professional investments. As the growth persists, faith and conviction investors reshape the equity markets. To fully comprehend the impact of socially conscious participants on security returns, this paper attempts to provide insights on how responsible investment growth has impacted the returns of sustainable stocks. The examination is split by investment horizon to account for short and long effects.Design/methodology/approachUsing an exclusive dataset of non-financial ratings, provided by MSCI ESG research, the authors examine the cross-sectional returns of US and European sustainability-leading and lagging corporations between 2007 and 2019. Panel models robust to country, firm-year and industry effects were then employed to examine the impact of responsible investment growth on future stock returns.FindingsThe authors find evidence that the impact of responsible investment growth is dual contingent upon the timeframe considered. In the short run, sustainability-leading and lagging firms display similar stock returns. However, the spread in returns is negative over long horizons and increasing over time.Originality/valueThe examination performed in this study highlights the significant effect of responsible investment growth on future stock returns. Overall, the authors’ findings are consistent with the price pressure hypothesis in the short run and the cost of capital alteration over longer horizons.

The determinants of corporate FX speculation – Why firms increase risk

PurposeEmpirical evidence on the determinants of corporate FX speculation is ambiguous. We note that the conflicting findings of prior studies could be the result of different methodologies in determining speculation. Using a novel approach to defining speculative activities, we seek to help solve the puzzle of the determinants of speculation and examine which firms engage in such activities and why they do so.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines an unexplored regulatory environment that contains publicly reported FX risk data on the firms' exposures before and after hedging per year and currency. This unprecedented data granularity allows us to use actual reported volumes instead of proxy variables in defining speculation and to examine whether the convexity theories are empirically supported in FX risk management.FindingsWe find that frequent speculators are smaller, have more growth opportunities and possess lower internal resources, which indicates unprecedented empirical evidence for the convexity theories in FX risk management. Further, we provide evidence that corporate speculation might be linked to the application of hedge accounting.Practical implicationsWe help solve the questions of which and why firms engage in speculative activities. This can provide valuable information to various stakeholders such as financial analysts, investors, or regulators, which can help prevent imperiling corporate losses and curb excessive speculative financial activities.Originality/valueIn order to question the unresolved issue of the determinants of speculation, this paper is the first to use openly available accounting data with actual reported FX exposure information before and after hedging in defining speculation, instead of relying on proxy variables for FX exposure and derivative usage with potential estimation errors.

A new approximation for the risk premium with large risks

PurposeThe Arrow–Pratt approximation to the risk premium is only valid for small risks. In this paper we consider a second approximation, based on risk-neutral probabilities and which requires no greater information than the Arrow–Pratt approximation, that works well for both small and large risks.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is theoretical in nature, although it also provides illustrative numerical simulations.FindingsThe new approximation proposed here appears to be significantly superior to Arrow–Pratt for approximating the true value of the risk premium when the risk is large. It may also approximate better even for relatively small risks.Originality/valueAs far as we are aware, there are no other known approximations for the risk premium when the risk involved is large.

Contagions in interconnected power markets

PurposeThis paper offers an alternative approach to assessing contagions in price and load in the Australian interconnected power markets. This approach enabled us to identify a high-risk region and assess the direction of contagions from both buyers' and sellers' perspectives.Design/methodology/approachThe author used a multinomial logit method to measure contagions. Having identified the exceedance and coexceedances, the author estimated the multinomial logit coefficients of the covariates explaining the probability of a certain number of coexceedances.FindingsMarket participants should recognize the presence of contagion risk and scrutinize price and load dynamics in the NSW and VIC regions to anticipate any simultaneous extreme changes. Regulators need to stabilize the demand and supply sides in those regions to minimize any possible contagions.Originality/valueThis paper presents a pioneering study investigating contagion in the Australian interconnected power markets.

Dividend policy and the downside risk in stock prices: evidence from the MENA region

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to document the impact of dividend policies on the downside risk in stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the data for non-financial firms from the MENA region to test our arguments by estimating the pooled OLS regressions. The data cover the period between 2010 and 2018.FindingsThis paper shows that firms with higher dividend payouts have significantly lower downside risk in their stock prices than the other firms. The findings of this paper are robust across various proxies of dividend policy and across various sub-samples. This paper contends that lower downside risk associated with the stock prices of firms paying high dividends is due to the fact that these firms have lower agency problems. Lower agency problems reduce the downside risk in stock prices.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, most of the prior research (covering the MENA region) overlooks the impact of dividend policy on the downside risk in stock prices. This paper fills this gap by documenting the relationship between the two by using the data for firms from the MENA region.