Population Size Estimation Methods: Searching for the Holy Grail (Preprint)

UNSTRUCTURED Accurate size estimates of key populations (eg, sex workers, people who inject drugs, transgender people, and men who have sex with men) can help to ensure adequate availability of services to prevent or treat HIV infection; inform HIV response planning, target setting, and resource allocation; and provide data for monitoring and evaluating program outcomes and impact. A gold standard method for population size estimation does not exist, but quality of estimates could be improved by using empirical methods, multiple data sources, and sound statistical concepts. To highlight such methods, a special collection of papers in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance has been released under the title “Key Population Size Estimations.” We provide a summary of these papers to highlight advances in the use of empirical methods and call attention to persistent gaps in information.

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Population Size Estimation Methods: Searching for the Holy Grail

JMIR Public Health and Surveillance ◽

10.2196/25076 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. e25076

Author(s):

Joyce J Neal ◽

Dimitri Prybylski ◽

Travis Sanchez ◽

Wolfgang Hladik

Keyword(s):

Population Size ◽

Sex Workers ◽

Population Size Estimation ◽

Estimation Methods ◽

Size Estimation ◽

Empirical Methods ◽

Program Outcomes ◽

Gold Standard Method ◽

Response Planning ◽

Sex With Men

Accurate size estimates of key populations (eg, sex workers, people who inject drugs, transgender people, and men who have sex with men) can help to ensure adequate availability of services to prevent or treat HIV infection; inform HIV response planning, target setting, and resource allocation; and provide data for monitoring and evaluating program outcomes and impact. A gold standard method for population size estimation does not exist, but quality of estimates could be improved by using empirical methods, multiple data sources, and sound statistical concepts. To highlight such methods, a special collection of papers in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance has been released under the title “Key Population Size Estimations.” We provide a summary of these papers to highlight advances in the use of empirical methods and call attention to persistent gaps in information.

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Estimating the Number of Sex Workers in South Africa: Rapid Population Size Estimation

AIDS and Behavior ◽

10.1007/s10461-014-0981-y ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 19 (S1) ◽

pp. 3-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Tracey L. Konstant ◽

Jerushah Rangasami ◽

Maria J. Stacey ◽

Michelle L. Stewart ◽

Coceka Nogoduka

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Population Size ◽

Sex Workers ◽

Population Size Estimation ◽

Size Estimation

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Characteristics and Population Size Estimation of Female Sex Workers in Bhutan

Sexually Transmitted Diseases ◽

10.1097/olq.0000000000001417 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽

Author(s):

Lekey Khandu ◽

Tashi Tobgay ◽

Kinley Kinley ◽

Ngawang Choida ◽

Tshering Tashi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Size ◽

Sex Workers ◽

Female Sex Workers ◽

Population Size Estimation ◽

Size Estimation ◽

Female Sex

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Population size estimation of female sex workers in Iran: Synthesis of methods and results

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0182755 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. e0182755 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Hamid Sharifi ◽

Mohammad Karamouzian ◽

Mohammad Reza Baneshi ◽

Mostafa Shokoohi ◽

AliAkbar Haghdoost ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Size ◽

Sex Workers ◽

Female Sex Workers ◽

Population Size Estimation ◽

Size Estimation ◽

Female Sex

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Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) for free-roaming dog population size estimation

10.1101/823419 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Charlotte Warembourg ◽

Monica Berger-González ◽

Danilo Alvarez ◽

Filipe Maximiano Sousa ◽

Alexis López Hernández ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Statistical Model ◽

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽

Population Size ◽

Census Data ◽

Population Size Estimation ◽

Domestic Dog ◽

Estimation Methods ◽

Size Estimation ◽

Aerial Vehicles ◽

Capture Recapture

AbstractPopulation size estimation is performed for several reasons including disease surveillance and control, for example to design adequate control strategies such as vaccination programs or to estimate a vaccination campaign coverage. In this study, we aimed at assessing the benefits and challenges of using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) to estimate the size of free-roaming domestic dog (FRDD) populations and compare the results with two regularly used methods for population estimations: a Bayesian statistical model based on capture-recapture data and the human:dog ratio estimation. Three studies sites of one square kilometer were selected in Petén department, Guatemala. UAV flight were conducted twice during two consecutive days per study site. The UAV’s camera was set to regularly take pictures and cover the entire surface of the selected areas. A door-to-door survey was conducted in the same areas, all available dogs were marked with a collar and owner were interviewed. Simultaneously to the UAV’s flight, transect walks were performed and the number of collared and non-collared dogs were recorded. Data collected during the interviews and the number of dogs counted during the transect walks informed a Bayesian statistical model. The number of dogs counted on the UAV’s pictures and the estimates given by the Bayesian statistical model, as well as the estimates derived from using a 5:1 human:dog ratio were compared to dog census data. FRDD could be detected using the UAV’s method. However, the method lacked of sensitivity, which could be overcome by choosing the flight timing and the study area wisely, or using infrared camera or automatic detection of the dogs. We also suggest to combine UAV and capture-recapture methods to obtain reliable FRDD population size estimated. This publication may provide helpful directions to design dog population size estimation methods using UAV.

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Population Size Estimation of Venue-Based Female Sex Workers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: Capture-Recapture Exercise

JMIR Public Health and Surveillance ◽

10.2196/10906 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. e10906 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Giang Le ◽

Nghia Khuu ◽

Van Thi Thu Tieu ◽

Phuc Duy Nguyen ◽

Hoa Thi Yen Luong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Size ◽

Sex Workers ◽

Female Sex Workers ◽

Population Size Estimation ◽

Ho Chi Minh City ◽

Size Estimation ◽

Female Sex ◽

Capture Recapture

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shinyrecap: A Shiny Application for Population Size Estimation from Capture-Recapture Data (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.32645 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Anne F. McIntyre ◽

Ian E. Fellows ◽

Steve Gutreuter ◽

Wolfgang Hladik

Keyword(s):

Population Size ◽

Sex Workers ◽

Female Sex Workers ◽

Population Size Estimation ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Size Estimation ◽

Female Sex ◽

Populations At Risk ◽

Population Size Estimates ◽

Capture Recapture

BACKGROUND Capture-recapture is often used to estimate the size of populations at risk for HIV, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs. These population size estimates are critical in determining resource allocation for HIV services geared toward these communities. OBJECTIVE Compared to the commonly used two-source capture-recapture, capture-recapture relying on three (or more) samples can provide more robust PSE but involve far more complex statistical analysis. shinyrecap is designed to provide a user-friendly interface for the field epidemiologist. METHODS shinyrecap is built on the Shiny web application framework for R. This allows it to seamlessly integrate with the sophisticated CRC statistical packages. Additionally, the application may be accessed online or run locally on the user’s machine. RESULTS The application enables users to engage in sample size calculation based on a simulation framework. It assists in the proper formatting of collected data by providing a tool to convert commonly used formats to that used by analysis software. A wide variety of methodologies are supported by the analysis tool, including log-linear, Bayesian model averaging, and Bayesian latent class models. For each methodology, diagnostics and model checking interfaces are provided. CONCLUSIONS Through a use case, we demonstrate the broad utility of this powerful tool with three-source capture-recapture data to produce population size estimation for female sex workers in a subnational unit of a country in sub-Saharan Africa.

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