Availability and Suitability of Digital Health Tools in Africa for Pandemic Control: Scoping Review and Cluster Analysis

Background Gaining oversight into the rapidly growing number of mobile health tools for surveillance or outbreak management in Africa has become a challenge. Objective The aim of this study is to map the functional portfolio of mobile health tools used for surveillance or outbreak management of communicable diseases in Africa. Methods We conducted a scoping review by combining data from a systematic review of the literature and a telephone survey of experts. We applied the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines by searching for articles published between January 2010 and December 2020. In addition, we used the respondent-driven sampling method and conducted a telephone survey from October 2019 to February 2020 among representatives from national public health institutes from all African countries. We combined the findings and used a hierarchical clustering method to group the tools based on their functionalities (attributes). Results We identified 30 tools from 1914 publications and 45 responses from 52% (28/54) of African countries. Approximately 13% of the tools (4/30; Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System, Go.Data, CommCare, and District Health Information Software 2) covered 93% (14/15) of the identified attributes. Of the 30 tools, 17 (59%) tools managed health event data, 20 (67%) managed case-based data, and 28 (97%) offered a dashboard. Clustering identified 2 exceptional attributes for outbreak management, namely contact follow-up (offered by 8/30, 27%, of the tools) and transmission network visualization (offered by Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System and Go.Data). Conclusions There is a large range of tools in use; however, most of them do not offer a comprehensive set of attributes, resulting in the need for public health workers having to use multiple tools in parallel. Only 13% (4/30) of the tools cover most of the attributes, including those most relevant for response to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as laboratory interface, contact follow-up, and transmission network visualization.

Smokers’ Likelihood to Engage With Information and Misinformation on Twitter About the Relative Harms of e-Cigarette Use: Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial

Background Information and misinformation on the internet about e-cigarette harms may increase smokers’ misperceptions of e-cigarettes. There is limited research on smokers’ engagement with information and misinformation about e-cigarettes on social media. Objective This study assessed smokers’ likelihood to engage with—defined as replying, retweeting, liking, and sharing—tweets that contain information and misinformation and uncertainty about the harms of e-cigarettes. Methods We conducted a web-based randomized controlled trial among 2400 UK and US adult smokers who did not vape in the past 30 days. Participants were randomly assigned to view four tweets in one of four conditions: (1) e-cigarettes are as harmful or more harmful than smoking, (2) e-cigarettes are completely harmless, (3) uncertainty about e-cigarette harms, or (4) control (physical activity). The outcome measure was participants’ likelihood of engaging with tweets, which comprised the sum of whether they would reply, retweet, like, and share each tweet. We fitted Poisson regression models to predict the likelihood of engagement with tweets among 974 Twitter users and 1287 non-Twitter social media users, adjusting for covariates and stratified by UK and US participants. Results Among Twitter users, participants were more likely to engage with tweets in condition 1 (e-cigarettes are as harmful or more harmful than smoking) than in condition 2 (e-cigarettes are completely harmless). Among other social media users, participants were more likely to likely to engage with tweets in condition 1 than in conditions 2 and 3 (e-cigarettes are completely harmless and uncertainty about e-cigarette harms). Conclusions Tweets stating information and misinformation that e-cigarettes were as harmful or more harmful than smoking regular cigarettes may receive higher engagement than tweets indicating e-cigarettes were completely harmless. Trial Registration International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 16082420; https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN16082420

Web-Based Discussion and Illicit Street Sales of Tapentadol and Oxycodone in Australia: Epidemiological Surveillance Study

Background Opioid use disorder and its consequences are a persistent public health concern for Australians. Web activity has been used to understand the perception of drug safety and diversion of drugs in contexts outside of Australia. The anonymity of the internet offers several advantages for surveilling and inquiring about specific covert behaviors, such as diversion or discussion of sensitive subjects where traditional surveillance approaches might be limited. Objective This study aims to characterize the content of web posts and compare reports of illicit sales of tapentadol and oxycodone from sources originating in Australia. First, post content is evaluated to determine whether internet discussion encourages or discourages proper therapeutic use of the drugs. Second, we hypothesize that tapentadol would have lower street price and fewer illicit sales than oxycodone. Methods Web posts originating in Australia between 2017 and 2019 were collected using the Researched Abuse, Diversion, and Addiction-Related Surveillance System Web Monitoring Program. Using a manual coding process, unstructured post content from social media, blogs, and forums was categorized into topics of discussion related to the harms and behaviors that could lead to harm. Illicit sales data in a structured format were collected through a crowdsourcing website between 2016 and 2019 using the Researched Abuse, Diversion, and Addiction-Related Surveillance System StreetRx Program. In total, 2 multivariable regression models assessed the differences in illicit price and number of sales. Results A total of 4.7% (28/600) of tapentadol posts discussed an adverse event, whereas 10.27% (95% CI 9.32-11.21) of oxycodone posts discussed this topic. A total of 10% (60/600) of tapentadol posts discussed unsafe use or side effects, whereas 20.17% (95% CI 18.92-21.41) of oxycodone posts discussed unsafe use or side effects. There were 31 illicit sales reports for tapentadol (geometric mean price per milligram: Aus $0.12 [US $0.09]) and 756 illicit sales reports for oxycodone (Aus $1.28 [US $0.91]). Models detected no differences in the street price or number of sales between the drugs when covariates were included, although the potency of the pill significantly predicted the street price (P<.001) and availability predicted the number of sales (P=.03). Conclusions Australians searching the web for opinions could judge tapentadol as safer than oxycodone because of the web post content. The illicit sales market for tapentadol was smaller than that of oxycodone, and drug potency and licit availability are likely important factors influencing the illicit market.

The Standardization of Hospital-Acquired Infection Rates Using Prediction Models in Iran: Observational Study of National Nosocomial Infection Registry Data

Background Many factors contribute to the spreading of hospital-acquired infections (HAIs). Objective This study aimed to standardize the HAI rate using prediction models in Iran based on the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) method. Methods In this study, the Iranian nosocomial infections surveillance system (INIS) was used to gather data on patients with HAIs (126,314 infections). In addition, the hospital statistics and information system (AVAB) was used to collect data on hospital characteristics. First, well-performing hospitals, including 357 hospitals from all over the country, were selected. Data were randomly split into training (70%) and testing (30%) sets. Finally, the standardized infection ratio (SIR) and the corrected SIR were calculated for the HAIs. Results The mean age of the 100,110 patients with an HAI was 40.02 (SD 23.56) years. The corrected SIRs based on the observed and predicted infections for respiratory tract infections (RTIs), urinary tract infections (UTIs), surgical site infections (SSIs), and bloodstream infections (BSIs) were 0.03 (95% CI 0-0.09), 1.02 (95% CI 0.95-1.09), 0.93 (95% CI 0.85-1.007), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.54-1.28), respectively. Moreover, the corrected SIRs for RTIs in the infectious disease, burn, obstetrics and gynecology, and internal medicine wards; UTIs in the burn, infectious disease, internal medicine, and intensive care unit wards; SSIs in the burn and infectious disease wards; and BSIs in most wards were >1, indicating that more HAIs were observed than expected. Conclusions The results of this study can help to promote preventive measures based on scientific evidence. They can also lead to the continuous improvement of the monitoring system by collecting and systematically analyzing data on HAIs and encourage the hospitals to better control their infection rates by establishing a benchmarking system.

Accuracy of Self-reported Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Status Among Gay and Bisexual Adolescent Males: Cross-sectional Study

Background Men who have sex with men are a risk group for anal human papillomavirus (HPV) and anal cancer. Australia introduced a universal school-based HPV vaccination program in 2013. Self-reported HPV vaccination status has been widely used in clinical and research settings, but its accuracy is understudied. Objective We aimed to examine the accuracy of self-reported HPV vaccination status among gay and bisexual adolescent males. Methods We included 192 gay and bisexual males aged 16-20 years from the Human Papillomavirus in Young People Epidemiological Research 2 (HYPER2) study in Melbourne, Australia. All participants had been eligible for the universal school-based HPV vaccination program implemented in 2013 and were asked to self-report their HPV vaccination status. Written informed consent was obtained to verify their HPV vaccination status using records at the National HPV Vaccination Program Register and the Australian Immunisation Register. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of self-reported HPV vaccination status. Results The median age of the 192 males was 19 (IQR 18-20) years. There were 128 males (67%) who had HPV vaccination records documented on either registry. Self-reported HPV vaccination had a sensitivity of 47.7% (95% CI 38.8%-56.7%; 61/128), a specificity of 85.9% (95% CI 75.0%-93.4%; 55/64), a positive predictive value of 87.1% (95% CI 77.0%-93.9%; 61/70), and a negative predictive value of 45.1% (95% CI 36.1%-54.3%; 55/122). Conclusions Self-reported HPV vaccination status among Australian gay and bisexual adolescent males underestimates actual vaccination and may be inaccurate for clinical and research purposes.

Prevalence of Multimorbidity of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases in Brazil: Population-Based Study

Background Multimorbidity is the co-occurrence of two or more chronic diseases. Objective This study, based on self-reported medical diagnosis, aims to investigate the dynamic distribution of multimorbidity across sociodemographic levels and its impacts on health-related issues over 15 years in Brazil using national data. Methods Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, hypothesis tests, and logistic regression. The study sample comprised 679,572 adults (18-59 years of age) and 115,699 elderly people (≥60 years of age) from the two latest cross-sectional, multiple-cohort, national-based studies: the National Sample Household Survey (PNAD) of 1998, 2003, and 2008, and the Brazilian National Health Survey (PNS) of 2013. Results Overall, the risk of multimorbidity in adults was 1.7 times higher in women (odds ratio [OR] 1.73, 95% CI 1.67-1.79) and 1.3 times higher among people without education (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.28-1.41). Multiple chronic diseases considerably increased with age in Brazil, and people between 50 and 59 years old were about 12 times more likely to have multimorbidity than adults between 18 and 29 years of age (OR 11.89, 95% CI 11.27-12.55). Seniors with multimorbidity had more than twice the likelihood of receiving health assistance in community services or clinics (OR 2.16, 95% CI 2.02-2.31) and of being hospitalized (OR 2.37, 95% CI 2.21-2.56). The subjective well-being of adults with multimorbidity was often worse than people without multiple chronic diseases (OR=12.85, 95% CI: 12.07-13.68). These patterns were similar across all 4 cohorts analyzed and were relatively stable over 15 years. Conclusions Our study shows little variation in the prevalence of the multimorbidity of chronic diseases in Brazil over time, but there are differences in the prevalence of multimorbidity across different social groups. It is hoped that the analysis of multimorbidity from the two latest Brazil national surveys will support policy making on epidemic prevention and management.

Digitization and Health in Germany: Cross-sectional Nationwide Survey

Background Digital technologies are shaping medicine and public health. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the attitudes toward and the use of digital technologies for health-related purposes using a nationwide survey. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study using a panel sample of internet users selected from the general population living in Germany. Responses to a survey with 28 items were collected using computer-assisted telephone interviews conducted in October 2020. The items were divided into four topics: (1) general attitudes toward digitization, (2) COVID-19 pandemic, (3) physical activity, and (4) perceived digital health (eHealth) literacy measured with the eHealth Literacy Scale (eHEALS; sum score of 8=lowest to 40=highest perceived eHealth literacy). The data were analyzed in IBM-SPSS24 using relative frequencies. Three univariate multiple regression analyses (linear or binary logistic) were performed to investigate the associations among the sociodemographic factors (age, gender, education, and household income) and digital technology use. Results The participants included 1014 internet users (n=528, 52.07% women) aged 14 to 93 years (mean 54, SD 17). Among all participants, 66.47% (674/1014) completed up to tertiary (primary and secondary) education and 45.07% (457/1017) reported a household income of up to 3500 Euro/month (1 Euro=US $1.18). Over half (579/1014, 57.10%) reported having used digital technologies for health-related purposes. The majority (898/1014, 88.56%) noted that digitization will be important for therapy and health care, in the future. Only 25.64% (260/1014) reported interest in smartphone apps for health promotion/prevention and 42.70% (433/1014) downloaded the COVID-19 contact-tracing app. Although 52.47% (532/1014) reported that they come across inaccurate digital information on the COVID-19 pandemic, 78.01% (791/1014) were confident in their ability to recognize such inaccurate information. Among those who use digital technologies for moderate physical activity (n=220), 187 (85.0%) found such technologies easy to use and 140 (63.6%) reported using them regularly (at least once a week). Although the perceived eHealth literacy was high (eHEALS mean score 31 points, SD 6), less than half (43.10%, 400/928) were confident in using digital information for health decisions. The use of digital technologies for health was associated with higher household income (odds ratio [OR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.47). The use of digital technologies for physical activity was associated with younger age (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94-0.96) and more education (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.01-1.46). A higher perceived eHealth literacy score was associated with younger age (β=–.22, P<.001), higher household income (β=.21, P<.001), and more education (β=.14, P<.001). Conclusions Internet users in Germany expect that digitization will affect preventive and therapeutic health care in the future. The facilitators and barriers associated with the use of digital technologies for health warrant further research. A gap exists between high confidence in the perceived ability to evaluate digital information and low trust in internet-based information on the COVID-19 pandemic and health decisions.

Long-Term Survival Among Histological Subtypes in Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: Population-Based Study Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

Background Actual long-term survival rates for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) are rarely reported. Objective This study aimed to assess the role of histological subtypes in predicting the prognosis among long-term survivors (≥5 years) of advanced EOC. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of data among patients with stage III-IV EOC diagnosed from 2000 to 2014 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer data of the United States. We used the chi-square test, Kaplan–Meier analysis, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model for the analyses. Results We included 8050 patients in this study, including 6929 (86.1%), 743 (9.2%), 237 (2.9%), and 141 (1.8%) patients with serous, endometrioid, clear cell, and mucinous tumors, respectively. With a median follow-up of 91 months, the most common cause of death was primary ovarian cancer (80.3%), followed by other cancers (8.1%), other causes of death (7.3%), cardiac-related death (3.2%), and nonmalignant pulmonary disease (3.2%). Patients with the serous subtype were more likely to die from primary ovarian cancer, and patients with the mucinous subtype were more likely to die from other cancers and cardiac-related disease. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that patients with endometrioid (hazard ratio [HR] 0.534, P<.001), mucinous (HR 0.454, P<.001), and clear cell (HR 0.563, P<.001) subtypes showed better ovarian cancer-specific survival than those with the serous subtype. Similar results were found regarding overall survival. However, ovarian cancer–specific survival and overall survival were comparable among those with endometrioid, clear cell, and mucinous tumors. Conclusions Ovarian cancer remains the primary cause of death in long-term ovarian cancer survivors. Moreover, the probability of death was significantly different among those with different histological subtypes. It is important for clinicians to individualize the surveillance program for long-term ovarian cancer survivors.

Population Health Surveillance Using Mobile Phone Surveys in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Methodology and Sample Representativeness of a Cross-sectional Survey of Live Poultry Exposure in Bangladesh

Background Population-based health surveys are typically conducted using face-to-face household interviews in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, telephone-based surveys are cheaper, faster, and can provide greater access to hard-to-reach or remote populations. The rapid growth in mobile phone ownership in LMICs provides a unique opportunity to implement novel data collection methods for population health surveys. Objective This study aims to describe the development and population representativeness of a mobile phone survey measuring live poultry exposure in urban Bangladesh. Methods A population-based, cross-sectional, mobile phone survey was conducted between September and November 2019 in North and South Dhaka City Corporations (DCC), Bangladesh, to measure live poultry exposure using a stratified probability sampling design. Data were collected using a computer-assisted telephone interview platform. The call operational data were summarized, and the participant data were weighted by age, sex, and education to the 2011 census. The demographic distribution of the weighted sample was compared with external sources to assess population representativeness. Results A total of 5486 unique mobile phone numbers were dialed, with 1047 respondents completing the survey. The survey had an overall response rate of 52.2% (1047/2006) and a co-operation rate of 89.0% (1047/1176). Initial results comparing the sociodemographic profile of the survey sample to the census population showed that mobile phone sampling slightly underrepresented older individuals and overrepresented those with higher secondary education. After weighting, the demographic profile of the sample population matched well with the latest DCC census population profile. Conclusions Probability-based mobile phone survey sampling and data collection methods produced a population-representative sample with minimal adjustment in DCC, Bangladesh. Mobile phone–based surveys can offer an efficient, economic, and robust way to conduct surveillance for population health outcomes, which has important implications for improving population health surveillance in LMICs.

Self–Training With Quantile Errors for Multivariate Missing Data Imputation for Regression Problems in Electronic Medical Records: Algorithm Development Study

Background When using machine learning in the real world, the missing value problem is the first problem encountered. Methods to impute this missing value include statistical methods such as mean, expectation-maximization, and multiple imputations by chained equations (MICE) as well as machine learning methods such as multilayer perceptron, k-nearest neighbor, and decision tree. Objective The objective of this study was to impute numeric medical data such as physical data and laboratory data. We aimed to effectively impute data using a progressive method called self-training in the medical field where training data are scarce. Methods In this paper, we propose a self-training method that gradually increases the available data. Models trained with complete data predict the missing values in incomplete data. Among the incomplete data, the data in which the missing value is validly predicted are incorporated into the complete data. Using the predicted value as the actual value is called pseudolabeling. This process is repeated until the condition is satisfied. The most important part of this process is how to evaluate the accuracy of pseudolabels. They can be evaluated by observing the effect of the pseudolabeled data on the performance of the model. Results In self-training using random forest (RF), mean squared error was up to 12% lower than pure RF, and the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.1% higher. This difference was confirmed statistically. In the Friedman test performed on MICE and RF, self-training showed a P value between .003 and .02. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test performed on the mean imputation showed the lowest possible P value, 3.05e-5, in all situations. Conclusions Self-training showed significant results in comparing the predicted values and actual values, but it needs to be verified in an actual machine learning system. And self-training has the potential to improve performance according to the pseudolabel evaluation method, which will be the main subject of our future research.