RETURN PERIOD OF TYPHOON TRACK AND REPRODUCTION OF STORM SURGE FOR HAGIBIS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

The damage caused by typhoons is gradually increasing due to the climate change recently. Hence, many studies have been conducted over a long period of time on various factors that determine the characteristics of storm surge, and most of relationships have been discovered. Because storm surge is complexly determined by various factors, it often show different results and draw different conclusions. For this reason, this study was conducted to understand the various characteristics of storm surge caused by changes in the forward speed of typhoons. This study was carried out with a numerical model, and the effect of forward speed could be analyzed by simplifying other factors as much as possible. When forward speed is increased, storm surges caused by typhoons tended to increase gradually. The storm surge showed a wide and gentle increase at a slow speed, but a narrow and steep one at a fast speed. In the case of the same forward speed, it was found that the storm surge was significantly influenced by the water depth of actual sea area. It was confirmed that the change in forward speed after passing Jeju Island did not significant affect on the storm surge in the south coast of Korea.

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IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL HAZARDS DUE TO WINTER CYCLONE AROUND JAPAN USING LARGE ENSEMBLE DATABASE

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v36.risk.89 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 89

Author(s):

Junichi Ninomiya ◽

Yuya Taka ◽

Nobuhito Mori

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Policy Decision ◽

Coastal Hazards ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Future Change ◽

Coastal Hazard

IPCC AR5 reported that the extreme events like tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and so on will be strengthen. The winter cyclone is one of the cause of coastal hazard. The winter cyclone is defined as the extratropical depression with rapid development. It causes high wave and storm surge from winter to spring, and Japan sometimes have casualties and economical loss. Some researches reported that the number of winter cyclone tend to increase. Because its tendency seems to go on, future change estimation of winter cyclone activity is important for disaster reduction. Understanding of winter cyclone is developing. For example, Yoshida and Asuma showed that the winter cyclones are classified by their track and the development of winter cyclone is related to lateral heat flux. On the other hand, almost of all researches of impact assessment on coastal hazard focus on the tropical cyclone. Mori et al. showed the maximum potential storm surge in Japan using maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclone and GCM outputs, and large storm surge will increase. Shimura et al. showed that extreme wave caused by the tropical cyclone will develop at offshore region of east from Japan. This research aims to reveal stochastic future change of winter cyclone using the database for policy decision making for future climate change (after here, d4PDF) which is huge ensemble dataset of present- and futureclimate. Then, the risk of coastal hazard will be evaluate.

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ESTIMATION TEST FOR RETURN PERIOD OF WAVE WITH STORM SURGE BY USING TIDE AND WAVE RECORDS

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B3 (Ocean Engineering) ◽

10.2208/jscejoe.73.i_156 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 73 (2) ◽

pp. I_156-I_161

Author(s):

Katsuya HIRAYAMA ◽

Akinori NAKAMURA ◽

Minoru ITSUI

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Return Period

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APPLICABILITY OF THE VERTICAL TELESCOPIC BREAKWATER USING THE PAST TYPHOON IN TOKYO BAY

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v36v.structures.35 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 35

Author(s):

Yako Harada ◽

Yukihisa Matsumoto ◽

Kazuho Morishita ◽

Nobuyuki Oonishi ◽

Kazuyoshi Kihara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Numerical Calculations ◽

Numerical Analyses ◽

Tokyo Bay ◽

Worst Case ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Long Period ◽

The Past

The vertical telescopic breakwater(VTB), which is a new breakwater that permits the navigation of ships, remain at the bottom of the sea during calm and rise to the surface during tsunamis or storm surges. Kawai et al. (2017) and Arikawa et al. (2019) found that it is effective not only for swell waves, but also for long-period waves simulating tsunamis and storm surges by previous experiments and numerical analyses. However, there have been few studies on the performance of VTB by numerical calculations in actual ports using actual typhoons. In addition, sea levels and changes in characteristics of typhoon due to climate change are predicted to occur; hence, we are concerned about the damage in all quarters caused by storm surge inundation, especially at Tokyo. Therefore, in this study, we used hypothetical typhoons under worst-case scenarios and quantitatively evaluated the protection performance of VTB against hypothetical typhoons with different aperture rates of VTB in Tokyo Bay by the numerical simulation.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/qof5ixKqIiA

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Economic Feasibility Study of Port Disaster Prevention Facility from Climate Change Storm Surge Using MD-FDA

Ocean Policy Research ◽

10.35372/kmiopr.2012.27.2.005 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 27 (2) ◽

pp. 133-176

Author(s):

SHINSEUNGSIK

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Feasibility Study ◽

Economic Feasibility ◽

Disaster Prevention

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Estimations of statistical dependence as joint return period modulator of compound events. Part I: storm surge and wave height

10.5194/nhess-2017-177 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Thomas I. Petroliagkis

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Wave Height ◽

Return Period ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Joint Probability ◽

Irish Sea ◽

Statistical Dependence ◽

Joint Return ◽

Compound Events ◽

Joint Return Period

Abstract. The possibility of utilising statistical dependence methods in coastal flood hazard calculations is investigated, since flood risk is rarely a function of just one source variable but usually two or more. Source variables in most cases are not independent as they may be driven by the same weather event, so their dependence, which is capable of modulating their joint return period, has to be estimated before the calculation of their joint probability. Dependence and correlation may differ substantially from one another since dependence is focused heavily on tail (extreme) percentiles. The statistical analysis between surge and wave is performed over 32 river ending points along European coasts. Two sets of almost 35-year hindcasts of storm surge and wave height were adapted and results are presented by means of analytical tables and maps referring to both correlation and statistical dependence values. Further, the top 80 compound events were defined for each river ending point. Their frequency of occurrence was found to be distinctly higher during the cold months while their main low-level flow characteristics appear to be mainly in harmony with the transient nature of storms and their tracks. Overall, significantly strong values of positive correlations and dependencies were found over the Irish Sea, English Channel, south coasts of the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Baltic Sea, with compound events taking place in a zero-lag mode. For the rest, mostly positive moderate dependence values were estimated even if a considerable number of them had correlations of almost zero or even negative value.

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