scholarly journals IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL HAZARDS DUE TO WINTER CYCLONE AROUND JAPAN USING LARGE ENSEMBLE DATABASE

2018 ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Junichi Ninomiya ◽  
Yuya Taka ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Coastal Hazard

IPCC AR5 reported that the extreme events like tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and so on will be strengthen. The winter cyclone is one of the cause of coastal hazard. The winter cyclone is defined as the extratropical depression with rapid development. It causes high wave and storm surge from winter to spring, and Japan sometimes have casualties and economical loss. Some researches reported that the number of winter cyclone tend to increase. Because its tendency seems to go on, future change estimation of winter cyclone activity is important for disaster reduction. Understanding of winter cyclone is developing. For example, Yoshida and Asuma showed that the winter cyclones are classified by their track and the development of winter cyclone is related to lateral heat flux. On the other hand, almost of all researches of impact assessment on coastal hazard focus on the tropical cyclone. Mori et al. showed the maximum potential storm surge in Japan using maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclone and GCM outputs, and large storm surge will increase. Shimura et al. showed that extreme wave caused by the tropical cyclone will develop at offshore region of east from Japan. This research aims to reveal stochastic future change of winter cyclone using the database for policy decision making for future climate change (after here, d4PDF) which is huge ensemble dataset of present- and futureclimate. Then, the risk of coastal hazard will be evaluate.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Environment in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations

Oceans ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-368
Author(s):  
Hironori Fudeyasu ◽  
Kohei Yoshida ◽  
Ryuji Yoshida
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Average Lifetime ◽  
Climate Projections

This study applied the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) environment factors to project future changes in the frequency and characteristics of TCs over the western North Pacific. We examined current and future TCG environmental conditions in terms of the contribution of five factors: shear line (SL), confluence region (CR), monsoon gyre, easterly wave (EW), and Rossby wave energy dispersion from a preexisting TC (PTC). Among summer and autumn TCs, the contributions of SL and EW to future TCG increased by about 4% and 1%, respectively, whereas those of CR and PTC decreased by the same amounts. In future climate projections, the average lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of TCs associated with EW (EW-TCs) was significantly higher than those of TCs associated with other factors except PTC. At higher sea surface temperatures and wetter conditions, higher lower-tropospheric relative vorticity was related to increases in the development rate of EW-TCs. Findings of this study suggest that increases in the average LMI of all future TCs were caused by large contributions from the average LMI of future EW-TCs.

scholarly journals Impact assessment of climate change on coastal hazards in Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 101-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Mark Kjerland ◽  
Sota Nakajo ◽  
Yoko Shibutani ◽  
Tomoya Shimura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Coastal Hazards

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Sabūnas ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Nobuki Fukui ◽  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
The Impact

The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarce. This study assessed the impact of climate change-induced storm surge and SLR compounding effects on Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati, the largest coral atoll nation. It projected the impact using a combined dynamic surge and SLR model based on the IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios and 1/100 and 1/50 years return period storm events. This approach allows estimating the inundation scope and the consecutive exposed population by the end of the 21st century. The results of this study show that the pace of SLR is pivotal for Tarawa, as the sea level rise alone can claim more than 50% of the territory and pose a threat to over 60% of the population under the most intense greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Furthermore, most coasts on the lagoon side are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, the contribution of extreme events is generally minimal due to low wind speeds and the absence of tropical cyclones (TC). Despite this, it is clear the compound effects are critical and may inescapably bring drastic changes to the atoll nations by the end of this century. The impact assessment in this study draws attention to the social impact of climate change on SIDS, most notably atoll islands, and evaluates their adaptation potential.

scholarly journals Rapid tidal reconstruction with UTide and the ADCIRC tidal database

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marissa Torres ◽  
Norberto Nadal-Caraballo
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Prediction Program ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Analysis Methods

The quantification of storm surge is vital for flood hazard assessment in communities affected by coastal storms. The astronomical tide is an integral component of the total still water level needed for accurate storm surge estimates. Coastal hazard analysis methods, such as the Coastal Hazards System and the StormSim Coastal Hazards Rapid Prediction System, require thousands of hydrodynamic and wave simulations that are computationally expensive. In some regions, the inclusion of astronomical tides is neglected in the hydrodynamics and tides are instead incorporated within the probabilistic framework. There is a need for a rapid, reliable, and accurate tide prediction methodology to provide spatially dense reconstructed or predicted tidal time series for historical, synthetic, and forecasted hurricane scenarios. A methodology is proposed to combine the tidal harmonic information from the spatially dense Advanced Circulation hydrodynamic model tidal database with a rapid tidal reconstruction and prediction program. In this study, the Unified Tidal Analysis program was paired with results from the tidal database. This methodology will produce reconstructed (i.e., historical) and predicted tidal heights for coastal locations along the United States eastern seaboard and beyond and will contribute to the determination of accurate still water levels in coastal hazard analysis methods.

scholarly journals Spatial Extent of Future Changes in the Hydrologic Cycle Components in Ganga Basin using Ranked CORDEX RCMs

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jatin Anand ◽  
Manjula Devak ◽  
Ashwini Kumar Gosain ◽  
Rakesh Khosa ◽  
Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Hydrologic Cycle ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The negative impacts of climate change are expected to be felt over wide range of spatial scales, ranging from small basins to large watersheds, which can possibly be detrimental to the services that natural water systems provide to the society. The impact assessment of future climate change on hydrologic response is essential for the decision makers while carrying out management and various adaptation strategies in a changing climate. While, the availability of finer scale projections from regional climate models (RCM) has been a boon to study changing climate conditions. These climate models are subjected to large number of uncertainties, which demands a careful selection of an appropriate climate model, however. In an effort to account for these uncertainties and select suitable climate models, a multi-criteria ranking approach is deployed in this study. Ranking of CORDEX RCMs is done based on its ability to generate hydrologic components of the basin, i.e., runoff simulations using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, by deploying Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The spatial extent of changes in the different components of hydrologic cycle is examined over the Ganga river basin, using the top three ranked RCMs, for a period from January 2021 to December 2100. It is observed that for monsoon months (June, July, August and September), future annual mean surface runoff will decrease substantially (−50 % to −10 %), while the flows for post-monsoon months (October, November and December) are projected to increase (10–20 %). While, extremes are seen to be increasing during the non-monsoon months, a substantial decrease in medium events is also highlighted. The increase in wet extremes is majorly supplemented by the increased snowmelt runoff during those months. Snowmelt is projected to increase during the months of November to March, with the month of December witnessing 3-4 times increase in the flow. Base flow and recharge are alarmingly decreasing over the basin. Major loss of recharge is expected to occur in central part of the basin. The present study offers a more reliable regional hydrologic impact assessment with quantifications of future dramatic changes in different hydrological sub-system and its mass-transfer, which will help in quantifying the changes in hydrological components in response to climate change changes in the major basin Ganga, and shall provide the water managers with substantive information, required to develop ameliorative strategies.

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