scholarly journals Monetary policy shocks and stock market volatility in emerging markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 50-61
Author(s):  
Betchani Tchereni ◽  
Songezo Mpini
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Repo Rate

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy decisions on stock markets in emerging economies particularly South Africa for the period 2000Q1 to 2016Q4. This is important as the monetary authorities would understand how their decisions may cause reactions to the stock market. Monetary policy directly shocks money supply and repo rate and indirectly GDP and inflation among many macroeconomic variables. A hypothesis that stock markets do not respond to monetary policy determinations is formulated and tested using a two-stage approach by employing first the vector error correction model to determine the long-run relationship of the variables and secondly GARCH (1, 2) model to determine the volatility. And the results suggest that about 5.2% variations in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) volatility are due to monetary policy shocks. Overall, there is a negative relationship between M2 and stock market volatility. However, there is a positive link between repo rate and JSE volatility, which is not economically preferable because variations in repo rate influence the aggregate demand of investment on securities. The study recommends that the Monetary Policy Committee an expansionary monetary policy of keeping the repo rate lower must be pursued in order to increase borrowing that makes the public to have money to make transactions in securities on the financial market.

scholarly journals Volatility Modeling: An Overview of Equity Markets in the Euro Area during COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1212
Author(s):  
Pierdomenico Duttilo ◽  
Stefano Antonio Gattone ◽  
Tonio Di Di Battista
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Volatility Modeling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Daily Returns

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. This investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of the euro area stock markets indices from 4th January 2016 to 31st December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with middle-large financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

Do Lower Foreign Flows and Higher Domestic Flows Reduce Indian Equity Market Volatility?

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292199098
Author(s):  
Vaibhav Aggarwal ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Mrityunjay Kumar Tiwary
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Equity Investments ◽  
Net Equity ◽  
Indian Stock Market

This study examines the relationship that both domestic and foreign institutional net equity flows have with the India stock markets. The motivation behind is the study to examine whether increased net equity investments from domestic institutional investors has reduced the influence of foreign equity flows on the Indian stock market volatility. Our results indicate that only during periods in which domestic equity inflows surpass foreign flows by a significant margin, as seen during 2015–2018, is the Indian stock market volatility not significantly influenced by foreign equity investments. However, during periods of re-emergence of strong foreign net inflows, the Indian market volatility is still being impacted significantly, as has been observed since 2019. Furthermore, we find that both large-scale net buying and net selling by domestic funds increased the stock market volatility as observed during 2015–2018 and COVID-impacted year 2020 respectively. The implications of this study are multi-fold. First, the regulators should discuss with industry bodies before enforcing major structural changes like reconstituting of mutual fund investment mandate in 2017 which forced domestic funds to quickly change portfolio allocation amongst large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap stocks resulting in higher stock market volatility. Second, adequate investor educational and awareness programmes need to be conducted regularly for retail investors to minimize herd behaviour of investing during market rise and heavy redemptions at times of fall. Third, the economic policies should be stable and forward-looking to ensure foreign investors remain attracted to the Indian stock markets at all times.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Response to Stock Market Volatility

2016 ◽  
Vol 285 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-50
Author(s):  
Łukasz Goczek ◽  
Karol Partyka
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Stock Market Volatility

Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Six Emerging Markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-93
Author(s):  
Naliniprava Tripathy ◽  
Ashish Garg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
Asymmetric Garch

This paper forecasts the stock market volatility of six emerging countries by using daily observations of indices over the period of January 1999 to May 2010 by using ARCH, GARCH, GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH models. The study reveals the positive relationship between stock return and risk only in Brazilian stock market. The analysis exhibits that the volatility shocks are quite persistent in all country’s stock market. Further the asymmetric GARCH models find a significant evidence of asymmetry in stock returns in all six country’s stock markets. This study confirms the presence of leverage effect in the returns series and indicates that bad news generate more impact on the volatility of the stock price in the market. The study concludes that volatility increases disproportionately with negative shocks in stock returns. Hence investors are advised to use investment strategies by analyzing recent and historical news and forecast the future market movement while selecting portfolio for efficient management of financial risks to reap benefits in the stock markets.

scholarly journals Stock prices, uncertainty and risks: Evidence from developing and advanced economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-279
Author(s):  
Mary Elena Sánchez Gabarre
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

This paper studies the relationship between stock prices and three types of uncertainty: economic policy uncertainty, stock market volatility, and geopolitical risks. In particular, our aim is to determine whether these forms of uncertainty play the same role in developed and developing countries. With this purpose, we take Spain and Brazil as representative cases. In order to provide new insights into the abovementioned relationship, a cointegration approach is applied, specifically an ARDL model, using monthly data from the period January 2006-December 2019 for a series of financial and macroeconomic variables. The results obtained reveal that there is no uniform effect of uncertainty in stock markets of developing and developed countries. First, in Spain, there is a high perception of uncertainty in economic policy and stock market volatility, which impact negatively in share prices, both in the short and long term. Regarding Brazil, the global uncertainty in the stock markets has effects on share prices, in both time horizons. By contrast, geopolitical risks do not show any significant impact on Brazilian and Spanish share returns.

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