Peramalan Suku Bunga Acuan (BI-7 Day Repo Rate) Dengan Metode Fuzzy Time Series

BI-7 Day Repo Rate merupakan suku bunga kebijakan yang mencerminkan sikap atau stance kebijakan moneter yang ditetapkan oleh Bank Indonesia dan diumumkan kepada publik. BI 7-Day Repo Rate sangat mempengaruhi banyak sektor ekonomi, yang pada akhirnya dapat mempengruhi tingkat atau laju inflansi. Para pelaku ekonomi sangat memperhatikan BI-7 Day Repo Rate yang ditetapkan oleh Dewan Gubernur. Apabila suku bunga kebijakan yang ditetapkan oleh Dewan Gubernur tidak sesuai dengan tren kondisi ekonomi diwaktu tertentu maka akan berdampak negatif kepada kondisi ekonomi Indonesia. Hal inilah yang menyebabkan pentingya dilakukan peramalan BI-7 Day Repo Rate dengan harapan para pelaku ekonomi dapat mengantisipasi dampak jangka panjang dari penetapan BI-7 Day Repo Rate ini. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah fuzzy time series dengan model terbaik orde 15 dengan tingkat akurasi yang dihitung menggunakan MAPE sebesar . Metode fuzzy time series bekerja dengan menangkap pola dari data historis kemudian digunakan untuk memproyeksikan data yang akan datang. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pergerakan tingkat Suku Bunga Acuan dari bulan Desember 2020 – Desember 2021 adalah rentang .

PENGARUH VARIABEL EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP PEMBIAYAAN PERBANKAN SYARIAH PERIODE 2010-2018

The purpose of the research is to examine and analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables GDP and inflation on Islamic banking financing in Indonesian. Islamic bank financing is the dependent variable, whereas GDP, reference interest rates, and inflation are the independent variable. The data used is Islamic banking financing, GDP, reference interest rates, and inflation in Indonesian from 2010-1018. This empirical study uses a quantitative approach and method of OLS (Ordinary Least Square). The results of this research indicate that the GDP variable has positive and statistically significant effect on Islamic banking financing, the variable reference interest rates (BI Rate and BI Rate 7days Repo Rate) have negative and statistically significant effect on Islamic banking financing, the inflation variable has positive and statistically significant effect on Islamic banking financing.

Komparasi Determinan Pembiayaan Pada Bank Mandiri Dan Bank Syariah Mandiri

The purpose of this research is to show the differences in financing between Bank Mandiri and Bank Syariah Mandiri; the effect of the inflation rate on financing; the influence of the BI-7 day repo rate on financing; the influence of the number of third party funds on financing; the effect of the statutory reserve requirement on financing. This research uses a quantitative approach with associative and comparative types of research. The sampling technique used was the purposive sampling method. The test uses a hypothesis test and an independent sample test to compare the financial performance of the two banks. The results showed that the inflation rate, BI-7 day repo rate, and the minimum reserve requirement had no effect on financing at Bank Mandiri and Bank Syariah Mandiri. While third-party funds partially have a positive and significant effect on financing at Bank Mandiri and Bank Syariah Mandiri. There is a significant difference between financing between Bank Mandiri and Bank Syariah Mandiri. This research can provide input for Islamic banking, especially Bank Mandiri and Bank Syariah Mandiri, in determining profit-sharing financing policies.

Central Bank Communications and Professional Forecasts: Evidence From India

We analyze the influence of qualitative and quantitative communications of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on inflation expectations of professional forecasters and draw out implications for policy. Estimating Carroll-type epidemiological models of expectation formation under information rigidities, we get a large speed of adjustment of professional forecasters’ expectations. Analysis of the determinants of inflation forecasts, inflation surprises, and forecaster disagreement reveals significant influence of quantitative RBI communications in the form of inflation projections. This effect is prominent for shorter-horizon forecasts and after adoption of flexible inflation targeting. Macroeconomic fundamentals like lagged inflation and repo rate also significantly influence inflation forecasts. Choice of words in the RBI monetary policy statements has more impact after October 2016, when the monetary policy committee became the decision-making body. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58

Reaksi Pasar atas Pengumuman Penurunan Bank Indonesia 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate

The purpose of this study is to investigate the reaction of the Indonesian capital market to the announcement of a reduction in the Bank Indonesia 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate on the property and banking sectors. This study employs an event study with a seven-day observation period. The sampling technique used was the purposive sampling technique. The sample size for the banking sector was 32 companies, and the sample size for the property sector was 30 companies. Anomaly returns were used to gauge market reaction. The researchers used the paired samples t-test and the Wilcoxon signed rank test to analyze the data. The results for both sectors revealed that no market reaction was detected as a result of the announcement. This may be caused by investors thought that the announcement can’t affect the company's performance in short term and also considering the other sentiments. Keywords: BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate; Event Study; Abnormal Return; Market Reaction.

Pengaruh Inflasi, BI-7 Day Reverse Repo Rate, Kurs, Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan terhadap Nilai Aktiva Bersih Reksa Dana Saham

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of inflation, BI-7 day reverses repo rate, exchange rate, the money supply, and composite stock price index on the net asset value of stock mutual funds. The population of this study is the stock mutual fund which was listed on the financial services authority in 2017-2020. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously inflation, BI-7 day reverse repo rate, exchange rate, the money supply, and composite stock price index affect the net asset value of the stock mutual fund. Partially, this study show BI-7 day reverse repo rate has a positive and significant effect on the net asset value of a stock mutual fund. The exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the net asset value of stock mutual funds. The composite stock price index has a positive and significant effect on the net asset value of stock mutual funds. The money supply has a negative and significant effect on the net asset value of a stock mutual fund while inflation has no significant effect on the net asset value of a stock mutual fund.

Pengaruh Inflasi, BI 7-Day Reserve Repo Rate, Dana Pihak Ketiga, Dan Fee Based Income Terhadap Profitabilitas BNI Syariah Tahun 2015-2020

This study was find out and conducted the effect of variables macro economics and source of income funds on profitability of BNI Syariah, with inflation, BI 7-day reserve repo rate, third party funds and fee based income as a research variable. The population in this study is a monthly financial statements of BNI Syariah in 2015-2020. The sample was determined by a purposive sampling method – 68 samples. The method used in this research is descriptive method with quantitative approach. The data used in this research is in the form of monthly financial statements that have been published by BNI Syariah (Persero) Tbk as well as data published by Bank Indonesia. The data test techniques in this study used normality test, multicolinearity test, heterocysticity test, autocorrelation test, multiple linear analysis and determination coefficient. The results of this study stated that partially inflation and BI 7-day reserve repo rate have no significant effect on profitability of BNI Syariah (Persero) Tbk. While the variables of third party funds and fee based income partially have a positive significant effect on profitability of BNI Syariah (Persero) Tbk for the period 2015 until 2020

Liquidity management and monetary transmission: empirical analysis for India

PurposeA change in monetary operating procedures provides a natural experiment which is used to evaluate, first, whether Indian monetary policy transmission is better when durable liquidity is in surplus or when it is in deficit; second whether it is better with interest rates as the policy instrument or quantity of money or a mixture of the two.Design/methodology/approachThis study first shows that the period of analysis can be divided into two separate regimes one of liquidity surplus (2002–2010) and the other of deficit (2011–2019).This study then estimates separate structural vector auto-regressions (SVARs) for the financial and real sector, with relevant exogenous foreign, policy and other variables for each of the periods as well as SVARs for the whole period with alternative operating instruments.FindingsMonetary transmission from the repo rate was better during the period the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) was in surplus with the central bank in absorption mode denoting excess durable liquidity. Pass through was faster and the repo rate had a greater influence on other variables. The impact of the rate on output gap exceeds that on inflation. The weighted average call money rate was found to outperform others as the operating target. Monetary policy has evolved so that policy rates are more effective in transmission compared to money supply, but best results are when durable liquidity is also in surplus.Originality/valueThe results contribute to ongoing debates on the Indian monetary policy framework and give useful inputs for policy in emerging markets where research is scarce. They suggest keeping the LAF in deficit mode over 2011–19 was not optimal.

Pengaruh Inflasi Indonesia Dan Bi Repo 7 Days Terhadap Kinerja Bank Devisa

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate on Retrun On Assets(ROA). The data obtained were then entered into the Statistical Package Social Sciences (SPSS) program to carry out advanced statistical analysis. Data obtained from the financial statements of 10 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2015 to 2019. The analysis techniques used are classical assumption tests, hypothesis testing, and others. The results obtained from the simultaneous hypothesis test (f test) show that inflation and the BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate simultaneously have an effect on Retrun On Assets(ROA). The results of the partial test (t test) show that inflation data has a significant negative effect on Retrun On Assets(ROA) and BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate data has a significant positive effect on Retrun On Assets(ROA). The result of the coefficient of determination with adjusted R2 shows that the predictive ability of this research data is 98.8%, meaning that the independent variables, namely Inflation and BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate affect the dependent variable, namely Retrun On Assets(ROA). amounting to 98.8 % Keywords : Inflation BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate, Retrun On Assets(ROA)

INFLATION, BI 7 DAYS REPO RATE, AND JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX ON NET ASSET VALUE OF SHARIA MUTUAL FUND

This research purposed to examine the effect of inflation, BI 7 Days Repo Rate (BI7DRR), and Jakarta Composite Index on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund. The method used is the descriptive and derivative method with a quantitative approach, with multiple linear regression analysis to find the relationship between the variables. This study uses purposive sampling as the sampling technique, which is the sharia mutual fund registered in the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia. This research observed the variables in the period of 2016 to 2020 with monthly time series from secondary data. The findings result that partially, inflation has significant effect with negative direction on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund, while the BI7DRR and Jakarta Composite Index has insiginificant impact on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund. This result shows the investment behavior by investor where the inflation rate becomes a consideration whether to put their fund in investment, especially sharia mutual fund or more concern on their consumption. On the other side, the value of BI7DRR and the Jakarta Composite Index does not become investor’s consideration to investing in sharia mutual fund. For simultaneous effect, inflation, BI7DRR, and Jakarta Composite Index have a significant effect on the net asset value of sharia mutual fund for 66%, which shows that the combined economic situation consisting of these factors can affect the movement of the net asset value of sharia mutual fund with a possibility of 66%, while 34% of the possibility left can be affected by variables outside this research.