scholarly journals The Significance of Mining Infrastructural Development on South African Economy from 1980-2013: An Econometric Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
Ofentse William Marutle ◽  
Olebogeng David Daw
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
Econometric Approach

In this present paper we investigate the relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth in South Africa from 1980-2013. The importance of this paper is to examine if there is both short and long run significant relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth in South Africa. The data mining was collected from South African Reserve Bank (SARB) covering the range from 1980-2013 of the paper. Both Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) where used for stationarity tests. Johansen Cointegration test is employed in this paper; also Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is also employed in this paper. In the results we obtained that there is a positive significant relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth. There is also a causal relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth, meaning the development of mining infrastructure does promote economic growth. In conclusion the policy makers should improve private infrastructure which will equip human capital to be more useful in contributing towards knowledge and innovation. This means South African government and mining industry should priorities the development of infrastructure as component that will be sufficient towards economic development.

scholarly journals The Significance of Mining Infrastructural Development on South African Economy from 1980–2013: An Econometric Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Ofentse William Marutle ◽  
Olebogeng David Daw
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
Econometric Approach

In this present paper we investigate the relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth in South Africa from 1980-2013. The importance of this paper is to examine if there is both short and long run significant relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth in South Africa. The data mining was collected from South African Reserve Bank (SARB) covering the range from 1980-2013 of the paper. Both Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) where used for stationarity tests. Johansen Cointegration test is employed in this paper; also Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is also employed in this paper. In the results we obtained that there is a positive significant relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth. There is also a causal relationship between mining infrastructure and economic growth, meaning the development of mining infrastructure does promote economic growth. In conclusion the policy makers should improve private infrastructure which will equip human capital to be more useful in contributing towards knowledge and innovation. This means South African government and mining industry should priorities the development of infrastructure as component that will be sufficient towards economic development.

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the Dynamic Effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Interest Rates on GDP in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 29-37
Author(s):  
Thomas Habanabakize ◽  
Daniel F Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
South African ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Repo Rate

Economic growth in South Africa has been in the “doldrums” for the past decade. If well managed, foreign direct investment (FDI) and repo rate (interest rate) could have a positive impact and assist in rapid economic growth so urgently needed in South Africa. FDI has been a driving force for growth in many developing economies. Not enough has been done to attract FDI in South Africa. The country has enormous ability and capacity to attract FDI inflows and to have the advantages from it. A quantitative research approach was used to analyse the association amongst the variables which include FDI, GDP and repo rate in the South African economy. The South African Reserve Bank database was used and the period analysed is from 2000 to 2016. Statistical and econometric methods such as correlation analysis, unit root tests, ARDL Bounds test for cointegration, an error correction model (ECM), and the Granger causality tests were used. Subsequently, after the econometric model was estimated, findings indicated the existence of a long-run relationship between the three variables. While, a significant positive relationship exists between FDI and GDP, a negative long-run relationship was found between GDP and repo rate and interestingly a nonsignificant relationship between repo rate and FDI. In the short run, the positive effect of FDI on GDP is minimal whilst a significant and positive relationship exists between GDP and repo rate. The results did also show some limitations in the results, with regards to FDI and repo rate that there is no significant relationship between the variables, meaning that repo rate does not have an impact on FDIs. Although some long-run evidence was found of FDI playing a role in economic growth in South Africa, such impact is limited. Also very interesting is that the repo rate and FDI do not have a statistically significant relationship. This could be due to the rising risks associated with investments in the country. In conclusion, there are many variables which could have a positive impact on the attraction of FDIs and such factors will be explored further in future studies. 

scholarly journals The Effects of Foreign Resource Inflow and Savings on the Economic Growth of South Africa: A VAR Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 232-241
Author(s):  
Temitope L. A.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Using Data

This study adopts both the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis and the Impulse-Response Function (IRF) to examine the importance and the effects of domestic savings and foreign direct investment (FDI) on South African economy, using data spanning over the period 1975 to 2011. While the level of domestic savings is quite low, compared to other emerging economies, South Africa has also been struggling to attract inflow of foreign resources. The form of savings in South Africa is different from the western way of savings; hence the low levels of domestic savings. The variables considered were tested for stationarity and they were all stationary before proceeding to test for cointegration and then estimate and VAR. The cointegration test revealed that there was at least one cointegrating equation; which signifies that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables. The results from the VAR Granger test of causality depicted that domestic savings lead economic growth, while economic growth leads investment. This result of the IRF also showed that while increased domestic savings is important to improve the level of economic growth in South Africa, it also leads FDI. This means that the economic environment needs to be suitable in order to attract foreign investments. The results obtained are reliable and stable as the model passes a battery of diagnostic tests. The study proposes some recommendations for policy.

scholarly journals Re-Visting the Electricity-Growth Nexus in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Phiri ◽  
Bothwell Nyoni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trivariate Analysis

AbstractThis research study contributes to the ever-expanding literature by examining multivariate cointegration and causality relationships between electricity consumption, economic growth and other growth determinants for quarterly South African data collected between 1994/Q1 – 2014/Q4. The motivation behind this current research case study becomes apparent when taking into consideration that no previous studies have gone further than bivariate and trivariate analysis in investigating the electricity-growth nexus in South Africa. In conducting our empirical investigation, our obtained empirical results are two-fold in nature. Firstly, we find significant multivariate long-run cointegration relationships between economic growth, electricity consumption and other growth determinants. Secondly, our empirical analysis offers support in favour of the neutrality hypothesis, that is, the notion of no causal effects existing between electricity consumption and economic growth in the long-run. However, we find that exports directly cause electricity consumption whereas economic growth, domestic investment and employment levels causally flow to exports.

scholarly journals The impact of economic growth on unemployment in South Africa: 1994 – 2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-707
Author(s):  
Handson Banda ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

One of the most pressing problems facing the South African economy is unemployment, which has been erratic over the past few years. This study examined the impact of economic growth on unemployment, using quarterly time series data for South Africa for the period 1994 to 2012.Johansen Co-integration reflected that there is stable and one significant long run relationship between unemployment and the explanatory variables that is economic growth (GDP), budget deficit (BUG), real effective exchange rate (REER) and labour productivity (LP). The study utilized Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effects of macroeconomic variables thus REER, LP, GDP and BUG on unemployment in South Africa. The results of VECM indicated that LP has a negative long run impact on unemployment whilst GDP, BUG and REER have positive impact. The study resulted in the following policy recommendation: South African government should re-direct its spending towards activities that directly and indirectly promote creation of employment and decent jobs; a conducive environment and flexible labour market policies or legislations without impediments to employment creation should be created; and lastly government should prioritise industries that promote labour intensive. All this will help in absorbing large pools of the unemployed population thereby reducing unemployment in South Africa.

Energy Policy Issues in Turkey

2020 ◽  
pp. 1152-1168
Author(s):  
Dilek Temiz Dinç ◽  
Aytaç Gökmen ◽  
Zehra Burçin Kanık
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Renewable Energy Production ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

Energy is the source of development of the mankind and an indispensable input for economic growth. Currently, most of the energy consumed in the world is composed of fossil fuels which are not environmentally friendly and reliable since their prices are volatile and their supply compels importing countries dependent on energy exporting countries. Thus, a good remedy to reduce fossil fuel dependency is to utilize more renewable energy resources. Renewable resources can be replenished quickly, are almost infinite and would lead a country to sustainable development. The Republic of Turkey is a net importer of energy. The diversification of energy sources and supply security is of great importance for it. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between renewable energy production and economic growth in Turkey by using Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality Test and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF). Consequently, both long run and short run a casualty running from GDP growth to renewable energy production is determined in the study.

scholarly journals ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA INFLASI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: KASUS INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Fahmi Lubis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

The Phenomena and trends of level of inflation which seem to be high as caused by factors or government policies whilst the level of economic growth averagely shows high and sustainable growth drawing the unusual macroeconomic condition in Indonesia. This research is conducted to find Correlation and Short-run as well as Long-run relationship between inflation and economic in Indonesia during 1968-2012. Besides, it is to find Granger-Causality between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It first tests its Unit-Root by Augmented Dickey Fuller and Dickey Fuller test, then it tests its Cointegration by Johansen Cointegration test and its causal relationship by Granger-Causality test as well as it makes mechanism of Error Correction Model (ECM). It is found both inflation and economic growth have no Unit-Root. It is found both inflation and economic growth have Correlation. It is found significantly long-run relationship through the probability value of its residual and short-run relationship through the probability value of inflation and economic growth in its differentiation. It is then found significantly one-way Granger-causality GDP causes CPI but not found one-way Granger-causality CPI causes GDP.

The short- and long-run drivers of lending behaviour by South African banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 639-651
Author(s):  
Johan Coetzee ◽  
Lwazi Genukile
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South African ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe role of banks to efficiently allocate loans to borrowers is fundamental to a thriving economy. In South Africa this is particularly important, given a challenging socio-economic environment with high levels of unemployment and poor levels of economic growth. This paper investigates the short- and long-run determinants of bank lending behaviour for South African banks.Design/methodology/approachThe study design uses time-series data in an autoregressive distributed-lagged model for the period 1994–2016.FindingsThe results indicate that factors such as the volume of deposits and the size of a bank are central to explaining bank lending behaviour in the short run, whereas GDP was found to be the only factor explaining lending behaviour in the long run.Originality/valueThe results suggest that the regulatory role of the South African Reserve Bank to ensure financial stability instils trust and certainty in the banking industry and is reflected in the short-run implications to ensure that large banks are stable and depositors avoid a run on a bank's deposits. This is particularly relevant if the long-run trajectory of the economy is one of sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, although the reserve bank is constantly under threat of not having a pro-growth policy agenda, the results support its role to promote confidence and trust through its financial stability policy. Should confidence in the financisal system not be present, it is argued that systemic risk will be exacerbated through the potential failure of large banks and depositors withdrawing their funds through a run on the bank in the short run. Where financial stability is present, market participants will be more inclined to make deposits into the large South African banks, given the trust and certainty within the system.

scholarly journals The role of government spending on economic growth in a developing country

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-146
Author(s):  
M.F. Oladele ◽  
Gisele Mah ◽  
Itumeleng Mongale
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Long Run

The issue of whether government expenditure helps or hinders economic growth is still debatable. This study examines the contribution of government spending towards economic growth in South Africa using annual data from 1980 – 2014. The cointegration approach and Vector Error Correction Model were used to analyse the data. The cointegration test results indicate that there is long run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. The VECM outcome indicates a positive and significant link between economic growth and expenditure on the long run. There is a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate and economic growth and a significant and negative relationship between economic growth and private consumption. Based on these findings, the correlation between government expenditure and economic growth showed that there is positive relationship on the long run in South Africa, while there is a negative and significant relationship between government spending and economic growth on the short run. More spending should therefore be directed towards important sectors such as infrastructural development and industrial development in order to accelerate economic growth. There is also a need for fiscal policy to be used as an instrument to regulate the amount of money in the economy.

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