Impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam

This paper uses the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to study the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economy growth in Vietnam during the period from quarter I/2004 to quarter II/2013. The results showed the cointegration relation between the macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response functions from VECM model showed the impact of the two policies on economic growth were limited, in which the impact of the monetary policy on growth is greater than that of the fiscal policy on growth. Subsequently, the paper provides some recommendations to improve the efficiency of the implementation of these policies in Vietnam.

Cointegration FDI to Economy Growth

The contribution of foreign direct investment to economic growth is perhaps one of the most studied topics in academic research over the past five decades. However, few studies have examined both the short-term and long-term effects of this impact on developing and emerging markets, particularly during times of economic uncertainty including the financial crisis. global financial crisis. This paper examines the relevant quantitative evidence on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on economic growth by the regression method and the Johansen cointegration test.

Tax Revenue Productivity of Tax Reforms in Kenya

Kenya has continued to experience increasing budget deficits. This is despite implementing various tax reforms. To finance the deficit, the Kenyan government should either raise more tax revenue or resort to borrowing. Domestic borrowing crowds out investment while external debt specifically non-concessional loans are tied to some unpopular conditions. The government has an option of considering non-concessional loans but this comes with a price of high interest rates and short payment periods. This means raising more tax with minimum burden is the best option. This study therefore seeks to investigate the responsiveness of Kenya’s tax system to GDP and Discretionary tax measures for the period between 1970 and 2018. Variables used in the study are integrated of order one. Johansen cointegration test reveals presence long run relationship thus informing the study to consider Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results reveal that Kenya’s tax system is inelastic but buoyant. This implies that the Kenyan tax system is unresponsive to GDP but responsive to discretionary tax measures. The finding of inelastic tax system has implications for the fiscal policy. The fiscal policy’s managers should target reducing or eliminating the tax exemptions, which might be eroding the effective tax base.

Do Petroleum Product Pump Prices Influence Economic Growth in Nigeria? An Empirical Analysis

This study examined the impact of fuel pump price adjustment and the causal relationship between fuel pump price adjustments and economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria annual report and National Bureau of Statistics publications spanning from 1980 - 2019. Descriptive statistics, unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, VECM and Granger causality test were employed to analyse the data. The result showed that a 1% increase in the prices of PMS and AGO increased economic growth by 0.014%, 0.038% and 0.018% respectively while AGO is reduced by 0.002%. Also the prices of PMS, AGO and DPK does not granger cause economic growth in Nigeria within the period under this study meaning that any macroeconomic policy that affects economic growth should be pursued independent of fuel pump prices as any policy aimed at influencing economic growth through pump price adjustments seems to be ineffective.

Role of entrepreneurial activities for Nigeria’s economic recovery and growth (a case of studying Nigerian enterprises)

The paper presents the empirical analysis of the effect of entrepreneurship activity on the economic recovery and growth using SMEs in Nigeria. Two cities from each of the six geopolitical zones and four sectors of the economy were selected for the study. The total number of the selected four sectors form the population of the study while the sample size is seven hundred and twenty. The analysis employs the Ordinary Least Square techniques and time-series data for the economic recovery. The study adopts the Phillips-Perron test procedure to examine the stationarity of the study variables. The Johansen Cointegration test was employed to establish the cointegration of the variables and the unrestricted Error Correction Model was used to examine the speed of the alteration to the equilibrium. It has been inferred that the entrepreneurship activity and ERG are integrated of order (1(0)). This is established by the explanatory power of the models result of R value of 0.274 and R2 approximated to 0.075. The result shows a low positive impact of entrepreneurial activities on ERG. The study proves that, despite the crash in oil industry, the entrepreneurship has contributed positively to the Nigerian economy although at a low level. The study suggests that the government should support the development of entrepreneurship

A Time-Varying Coupling Analysis of Expressway Traffic Volume and Manufacturing PMI

This study investigates the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI). First, for the traffic volume and manufacturing PMI time-series data, unit root stability test and Johansen cointegration test are applied to determine the stability of single sequence and the long-term stable correlation between variables, respectively. Then, a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) is developed to quantify the time-varying correlation between variables. The time-varying parameters of TVP-VAR are estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) theory. Finally, the model is validated using examples from China. In the numeric example, three variables, i.e., expressway car traffic volume, expressway truck traffic volume, and manufacturing PMI, are selected for analysis. Results show that there is a positive interaction between expressway traffic volume (both car and truck) and manufacturing PMI. Express traffic volume slowly promotes the development of manufacturing industry. However, with the reform policy of road freight structure in China, the promotion effect of truck traffic on manufacturing PMI in the past two years has decreased significantly. Moreover, as affected by the China demand-led economic development model in recent years, the stimulus effect of manufacturing PMI on expressway passenger traffic volume has increased year by year. And, while the expressway freight structure remains stable, truck traffic volume is hardly affected by fluctuations in manufacturing PMI. These research results are helpful for policy makers to understand the time-varying coupling relationship between expressway traffic volume and manufacturing development and finally to improve the expressway management level.

Tea export competitiveness and the nexus between tea export and economic growth: The cases of Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka

Tea export competitiveness and the nexus between tea export and economic growth: The cases of Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka Long since the end of the British India regime, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka have produced a signifi cant volume of tea which continues to bring them invaluable foreign currency earnings through exports. Our paper explores the tea export competitiveness of these countries by employing the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index, and analyses the nexus between tea export and economic growth over the period from 1980 to 2018 using several dynamic econometric approaches. Results suggest that Bangladesh has lost its tea export competitiveness over the last decade. India posted moderate performance, while Sri Lanka consistently kept its dominant position. Further, the Johansen Cointegration test outcomes report no long-run relationship between tea export and economic growth across all the countries. The Granger Causality outcomes illustrate that only in Sri Lanka is it the case that tea export causes short-run economic growth. Lastly, the impulse response function projects tea export and economic growth, taking into consideration the response of each to a shock from the other. Extrapolation from the results indicate that, in contrast to the cases of Bangladesh and India (where no direct relationship was found), tea export and economic growth are intimately interconnected in Sri Lanka. This article further recommends eff ective policies so that economic growth in these countries can remain steady and that their tea industries can thrive.

Can country risks predict Islamic stock index? Evidence from Indonesia

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between the Indonesian Islamic capital market, the country's risk and macroeconomic factors. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the Johansen cointegration test and the vector error correction model (VECM) on monthly data from January 2003 to March 2016 to examine the variables that influenced the Islamic capital market proxied by the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Findings The findings indicate the existence of short-term and long-term cointegrations between country risk (political, economic and financial risks), macroeconomic variables (industrial production index, inflation and oil price) and JII. In the long run, financial risk positively affects the JII, whereas economic risks and inflation are negatively related. In the short run, only inflation affect negatively the JII. Practical implications The study emphasizes the critical role of financial risk in affecting the Islamic capital market. Investors negatively respond to higher financial risk and react positively to more increased economic threats. The variable of financial risk has the highest coefficient, indicating that the investors favour a conducive financial environment in deriving JII. Originality/value This study extends the previous literature with an attempt to empirically examine the influence of Indonesia's country risk on the Islamic stock market through VECM.

Determinants of Budget Deficit in Nigeria

This paper investigates the factors governing the determination of budget deficit in Nigeria from 1981q1 through 2016q4. Our methodology is based on Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) approach. The result from the Johansen cointegration test suggests one cointegrating vector, which indicates the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship. Evidence from the long run and short run parameters suggest that exchange rate, interest rate and one year lag of budget deficit are the major determinants of budget deficit. Therefore, to achieve a realistic fiscal surplus, the government should determine a high level of accountability in its fiscal operations. In addition, any fiscal surplus should be channeled into productive investments to diversify the economy and reduce the likelihood of potential budget deficits.

Poverty, Unemployment and Food Insecurity: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

The high incidence of poverty in Nigeria coupled with the alarming rate of unemployment has raised concerns among experts as to their likely relationship with food insecurity. This study examined the nexus between poverty, unemployment and food insecurity using the Johansen cointegration test and the vector error correction model. The result from the Johansen cointegration test suggests a long-run relationship between food insecurity, poverty and unemployment. Findings from the vector error correction analysis showed a positive but insignificant relationship between poverty and food insecurity such that a percentage change in poverty in the current period is associated with a 0.09 per cent increase in food insecurity on average, ceteris paribus. Besides, a positive and significant relationship subsists between unemployment and food insecurity where an increase in unemployment exacerbated the latter. Clearly, a 1 per cent deviation in the previous period unemployment level is associated with a 1.2 per cent degeneration of the food insecurity position in the short run. In the same vein, a 1 per cent change in unemployment in the current period causes a 1.5 per cent aggravation of food insecurity. Following the findings, this study recommends a multi sector-specific approach to solving the issue of poverty in Nigeria targeting agriculture and its employment generating capacity, creating the enabling environment through infrastructure development and improving the ease of doing business for the private sector to strive and enhance its employment generating capacities. The study concludes with a call for the implementation of a holistic food security policy targeting improvement in crop yield, internal security problems and the proper funding of agriculture to be effective.