Basic Balances, Short-Term Capital Flow, and International Reserves of Industrial Countries (Balances de base, flux de capitaux a court terme et reserves internationales des pays industriels) (Balanza basica, corrientes de capital a corto plazo y reservas internacionales de los paises industriales)

1969 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoran Hodjera
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flow ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Industrial Countries

Belize’s economic recovery will lose steam

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Primary Surplus

Subject The Belize economy. Significance Belize’s economic recovery is stagnating following a severe drought that has had a harsh impact on agriculture and hydropower generation. The situation has been compounded by a slowdown in tourist arrivals following years of buoyant growth, reflecting weaker global expansion and the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which service the country. Impacts The current account deficit will remain large, with international reserves averaging just three months of imports. The primary surplus will narrow due to increasing spending on wages and public investment and weaker-than-expected revenue. This being an election year, cuts to current expenditures will probably be off the table, limiting debt reduction in the short term. Funding constraints will hit the government’s ability to pursue much-needed reforms in infrastructure and education.

The Quantification of Survey Data on Expectations∗

1985 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 39-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Economic Variable ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

In many industrial countries regular surveys are published in which either firms or consumers are asked whether they expect some economic variable, like prices for example, to rise or fail. This survey information has been used for many years as an aid to short-term forecasting. Recently there has been a renewed interest in using this data for a rather different purpose: as a measure of firms or consumers' average expectations.

RE-MEASUREMENT OF SHORT-TERM INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS AND ITS APPLICATION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
JUNYI SHI
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
International Capital Flows ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Residual Method ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
International Capital Flow

In this paper, we use the improved direct method and improved residual method to re-measure the annual scale and to measure the quarterly scale of the short-term international capital flows based on the Chinese Balance of Payment table. At the same time, we use the residual method to estimate the monthly scale of the Chinese short-term international capital flows as well. Then we explain and test these calculated results. Next we apply the results to the lead–lag analysis of macro-economy. To judge whether the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator, we apply the Kullback–Leibler information method and cross-correlation analysis method to analyze the lead–lag relationship between the short-term international capital flows and macro-economy by selecting some representative macroeconomic indicators as a reference. Our empirical analysis shows that in China, the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator to macro-economy and a coincident indicator to Purchasing Managers’ Index. In the end, we give some conclusions and policy proposals.

Forecasting Exports and Imports: Introduction

1967 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 32-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Major
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
New Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Rigorous Procedure

The National Institute is currently studying ways of improving its methods of short-term economic forecasting. The two articles which follow report on some of the recent work undertaken in two parts of the field, namely exports and imports.In the case of exports, our methods hitherto have been rather subjective. The first article is the account of a more rigorous procedure proposed for one part, though a very important one, of total exports of goods, namely exports of manufactures to industrial countries. Attempts to find procedures of analogous rigour for exports to primary producing countries have, so far, failed to throw up anything very useful. For imports, our procedure has for some time been rigorous, in the sense of making use of postulated econometric relationships. Thus the second article does not so much propose a new method as elaborate and modify existing methods in a way which may prove to be more satisfactory.

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