Belize’s economic recovery will lose steam

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Primary Surplus

Subject The Belize economy. Significance Belize’s economic recovery is stagnating following a severe drought that has had a harsh impact on agriculture and hydropower generation. The situation has been compounded by a slowdown in tourist arrivals following years of buoyant growth, reflecting weaker global expansion and the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which service the country. Impacts The current account deficit will remain large, with international reserves averaging just three months of imports. The primary surplus will narrow due to increasing spending on wages and public investment and weaker-than-expected revenue. This being an election year, cuts to current expenditures will probably be off the table, limiting debt reduction in the short term. Funding constraints will hit the government’s ability to pursue much-needed reforms in infrastructure and education.

Economic downturn may be on the horizon in Ecuador

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Economic challenges. Significance In the first quarter, Ecuador’s economy grew at its weakest pace since the 2016 recession. The government is facing significant challenges in implementing a recently agreed IMF programme, while President Lenin Moreno’s popularity has plummeted following unpopular, but arguably necessary, spending cuts. Impacts Dollar appreciation and a tightening of global financing conditions would weaken Ecuador’s competitiveness. Short-term, the current account deficit will narrow, as rising oil prices support export growth and the slowdown weighs on import demand. Moreno’s diminishing popularity will exacerbate uncertainty around implementation of the IMF programme.

Protests present major challenges for Colombia’s Duque

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Growth Disruption ◽  
The Current Account

Significance Almost a month of protests against a range of perceived government failings is putting pressure on President Ivan Duque, already weakened by plunging approval ratings and his party’s loss of its legislative majority in October’s elections. His efforts to allay tensions have yet to bear fruit and fall far short of a list of 13 demands tabled by the National Strike Committee. Impacts Weaker exports will lead to an increase in the current account deficit. No changes to the policy rate are expected in the short term unless the economic growth disruption from social unrest worsens. Given the multitude of stakeholders and issues in dispute, protests will probably linger for the rest of Duque’s term.

scholarly journals Belize

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (364) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Banking Relationships ◽  
Primary Surplus

Belize’s economic recovery continues but the pace is slowing. Real GDP grew by 3.2 percent in 2018, but recent data indicate a slowdown, reflecting a severe drought, with growth projected to average 2 percent during 2019-20. The primary fiscal surplus reached 2.1 percent of GDP in FY2018/19––a 4 percent of GDP rise from two years ago––but the primary surplus is expected to narrow this year and remain below 2 percent of GDP for the following two years. Public debt remains above 90 percent of GDP, the current account deficit is projected to remain large over the medium term, and international reserves are just below 3 months of imports of goods and services. The pace of structural reform has been slow. Downside risks, including from slower U.S. growth, natural disasters, crime, and renewed pressures on correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) could weaken growth and financial stability.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Are export earnings from India’s bilateral intra-industry trade with the US and China robust enough?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sagnik Bagchi ◽  
Surajit Bhattacharyya
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Export Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
Export Share ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
The World

Purpose This paper aims to explore whether India’s export basket in the bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) with two of its top trading partners characterize robust export earnings or not. This is pertinent for two reasons. First, India has a persistent problem of current account deficit for over decades now. Second, whether India’s export diversification strategy by participating in global value chains to improve export share in the world market led to the problem of the fallacy of composition. Design/methodology/approach This study considers bilateral trade data between India-USA and India-China at the HS-6 digit level over the period 1990–2018. The magnitude of total IIT is computed using the Grubel and Lloyd (1971) index. This paper then uses the unit value dispersion criterion to disentangle the magnitude of total IIT into horizontal and vertical IIT. Through a stepwise econometric exercise, this paper explores the attributes of exported goods in the IIT basket in terms of the directions of ToT, export share and export-price elasticity. Findings Across the two country pairs, the major contributors to the upsurge in IIT are five manufacturing industry groups of chemical, plastics and rubber, textiles, base metals and machinery and mechanical appliances. Across the industry groups, the dominant form of IIT has been low vertical IIT. Most of the industry groups do not characterize robust export earnings as the commodity groups have an elastic demand and an increasing trend of Terms of Trade (ToT). The exceptions are the industry groups of chemicals and textiles in India-China and India-USA, respectively. Research limitations/implications The concern of slim export earnings in most industry groups offers scepticism in maintaining the sustainability of the current account. The problem of the fallacy of composition also cannot be ruled out given the dominance of low vertical IIT. This study argues that these industry groups need to engage in labour market reforms and require access to easy credit to achieve competitiveness in the world market. Originality/value The analysis performed in this paper attempts to integrate the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in the context of IIT. Empirical evidence to such an issue is not profound.

Turkey faces power shortages as gas contracts end

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Power Shortages

Significance Turkey stands to lose 21% of its import portfolio during the peak winter demand period. Take-or-pay gas import contracts signed two decades ago are coming to an end, and renewal is proving far from straightforward as exporters seek to leverage Turkey’s weak position to secure favourable terms. Impacts Cheaper gas on better terms would help Turkey’s chronic current account deficit. Ankara is keen to avoid further confrontation with Washington in case it puts further pressure on the lira in the run-up to elections. Balancing relations with Washington and Moscow and securing cheap, reliable gas supplies would be a major feat but may prove impossible.

Prospects for Turkey in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Main Theme ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Growth

Subject Prospects for Turkey in 2022. Significance The Central Bank may cut its policy rate again tomorrow. The authorities are gambling on weakening the lira despite soaring inflation, emboldened by strong growth and a narrowing current account deficit. The main theme for 2022 will be the following year, when the Turkish Republic’s centenary will be packed with symbolism for both political sides.

scholarly journals Explaining India’s current account deficit: a time series perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-138
Author(s):  
Harendra Kumar Behera ◽  
Inder Sekhar Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India. Design/methodology/approach To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM. Findings The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor. Practical implications Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD. Originality/value The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.

Prospects for Nigeria in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Nigeria in 2017. Significance Hopes of an economic turnaround will be limited by the continued shortage of foreign exchange crippling industrial outputs and consumer sectors. Renewed militancy and halting of oil production in the Niger Delta -- in addition to isolated Boko Haram attacks -- could make economic recovery unachievable in the short term. Unemployment and everyday poverty in urban centres may create pockets of emergent protest.

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