Predictive Variable Influence on Operating Safety of an Oil Pump using a Generalized Proportional Intensity Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 200
Author(s):  
Sidali Bachaa ◽  
Ahmed Bellaouara ◽  
Jean-Paul Dron
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidali Bacha ◽  
Ahmed Bellaouar ◽  
Jean-Paul Dron

PurposeComplex repairable systems (CRSs) are generally modeled by stochastic processes called “point processes.” These are generally summed up in the nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) and the renewal process (RP), which represent the minimum and maximum repair, respectively. However, the industrial environment affects systems in some way. This is why the main objective of this work is to model the CRS with a concept reflecting the real state of the system by incorporating an indicator in the form of covariate. This type of model, known as the proportional intensity model (PIM), will be analyzed with simulated failure data to understand the behavior of the failure process, and then it will be tested for real data from a petroleum company to evaluate the effectiveness of corrective actions carried out.Design/methodology/approachTo solve the partial repair modeling problem, the PIM was used by introducing, on the basis of the NHPP model, a multiplicative scaling factor, which reflects the degree of efficiency after each maintenance action. Several values of this multiplicative factor will be considered to generate data. Then, based on the reliability and maintenance history of 12-year pump's operation obtained from the SONATRACH Company (south industrial center (CIS), Hassi Messaoud, Algeria), the performance of the PIM will be judged and compared with the model of NHPP and RP in order to demonstrate its flexibility in modeling CRS. Using the maximum likelihood approach and relying on the Matlab software, the best fitting model should have the largest likelihood value.FindingsThe use of the PIM allows a better understanding of the physical situation of the system by allowing easy modeling to apply in practice. This is expressed by the value which, in this case, represents an improvement in the behavior of the system provided by a good quality of the corrective maintenance performed. This result is based on the hypothesis that modeling with the PIM can provide more clarification on the behavior of the system. It can indicate the effectiveness of the maintenance crew and guide managers to confirm or revise their maintenance policy.Originality/valueThe work intends to reflect the real situation in which the system operates. The originality of the work is to allow the consideration of covariates influencing the behavior of the system during its lifetime. The authors focused on modeling the degree of repair after each corrective maintenance performed on an oil pump. Since PIM does not require a specific reliability distribution to apply it, it allows a wide range of applications in the various industrial environments. Given the importance of this study, the PIM can be generalized for more covariates and working conditions.


1994 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waseem M. Qureshi ◽  
Thomas L. Landers ◽  
Edward E. Gbur

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akhmad Sodiqin

The aim of the research is to know influence of yuan exchange and euro to US dollar simultanously or partially. This research used quantitative analyses. Data was formed from January 2015 to November 2015. Data which was analyzed using regression. To examine influence of independen variables using F and t to examine partially.Based on data confirmed output that yuan and euro exchange influenced to US dollar simultanously. This fact based on value of F is 1.341,74, significance level 0,00 lower than 0,05. Yuan exchange influence to US dollar partially. Value of t is 36,261 and significance is 0,00. Euro exchange influence to US dollar partially. Value of t is 23,854 and significance 0,00. That variable influence to US dollar exchange 73,9 % other influenced by other variables.


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