Stock Market Returns and the Presidential Election Cycle: Implications for Market Efficiency

1980 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 49-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred C. Allvine ◽  
Daniel E. O'Neill
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Stock Market Returns

scholarly journals Stock Return Predictability and Market Efficiency in Pakistan; A Role of Asian Growing Economies of India and Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-267
Author(s):  
Syed Usman Qadri ◽  
Naveed Iqbal ◽  
Syeda Shamaila Zareen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Return Predictability ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Returns Predictability ◽  
Daily Returns

The purpose of this study is to determine the predictability of the Pakistani stock market's one-day forward returns by utilizing lagged daily returns for Pakistan, India, and Malaysia from 2006 to 2016. The findings indicate that lagged Pakistani market returns significantly predict Pakistani one-day ahead market returns. However, the other two growing stock markets, India and Malaysia, show no association with one-day ahead market returns. Mostly, stock market behavior in the pre-2008 and post-2008 eras was the same, although industry return behaviour was different due to the economic crisis of 2008. However, the Pakistani stock market one-day ahead returns predict the own Pakistani lag returns due to an inefficient market and prices do not follow a random walk. As a result, investors and financial analysts can foresee and generate anomalous returns by using previous data and information. Key words: Stock Market Returns Predictability, Stock Market crash, Market efficiency

scholarly journals Stock Market Volatility And Presidential Election Uncertainty: Evidence From Political Futures Markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-150
Author(s):  
David R. Bowes
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Electronic Market ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
On Line

Uncertainty about the economy can increase volatility in financial market returns. One potential source of uncertainty is the outcome of an upcoming national election. This paper uses a GARCH model to estimate the effect of uncertainty surrounding U.S. Presidential elections on the volatility of U.S. stock market returns from 1992-2012. Uncertainty in these elections is measured using asset prices from the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), an on-line futures market based on real-world events, including U.S. elections. The empirical results show that the conditional variance in S&P 500 returns increases when IEM presidential election futures market asset prices indicate greater uncertainty about the outcome of an upcoming election.

scholarly journals 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and Stock Markets in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
SingRu Hoe ◽  
Srinivas Nippani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study seeks to address the question if the 2016 U.S. Presidential election and Mr. Donald Trump’s path to U.S. presidency affected the stock market returns in China. We do not find conclusive results from three leading stock indices of China, SHCOMP, SZCOMP, and SHSZ300. There is an immediate impact shown in SHSZ300, but not in SHCOMP and SZCOMP. We ascribe this to the impact of less sophisticated investors who dominate the stock market in China and also to that country’s censorship of the media wherein the government could effectively either block or downplay the unfavorable information. 

Relationship between Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI), Domestic Institutional Investors, and Stock Market Returns in India

GIS Business ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Dhananjaya Kadanda ◽  
Krishna Raj
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Feedback Trading

The present article attempts to understand the relationship between foreign portfolio investment (FPI), domestic institutional investors (DIIs), and stock market returns in India using high frequency data. The study analyses the trading strategies of FPIs, DIIs and its impact on the stock market return. We found that the trading strategies of FIIs and DIIs differ in Indian stock market. While FIIs follow positive feedback trading strategy, DIIs pursue the strategy of negative feedback trading which was more pronounced during the crisis. Further, there is negative relationship between FPI flows and DII flows. The results indicate the importance of developing strong domestic institutional investors to counteract the destabilising nature FIIs, particularly during turbulent times.

Causal Relationships and Short-Term Dynamics Between Oil Price and Stock Market Returns in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (02) ◽  
pp. 1184-1204
Author(s):  
Arif Rasheed ◽  
Mitra Saeedi ◽  
Nalini Gebril ◽  
Kumaraseh Hariraj
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Returns
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