scholarly journals Ensemble Model of Precipitation Change Over Indonesia Caused by El Nino Modoki

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this research is to understand the impact of El Nino Modoki into Indonesian precipitation and how ensemble models can simulate this changing. Ensemble model has been recognized as a method to improve the quality of model and/or prediction of climate phenomenon. Every model has their own algorithm which causes strength and weakness in many aspects. Ensemble will improve the quality of simulation while reducing the weakness. However, the combination of models for ensembles is differ for each event and/or location. Here we utilize the Squared Error Skill Score (SESS) method to examine each model quality and to compare the ensemble model with the single model. El Nino Modoki is a unique phenomenon. It remains debatable amongst scientists, many features of this phenomenon are unfold. So, it is important to find out how El Nino Modoki has changed precipitation over Indonesia. To verify the changing precipitation, the composite of precipitation on El Nino Modoki Year is divided with the composite of all years. Last, validating ensemble model with Satellite-gauge precipitation dataset. El Nino Modoki decreases precipitation in most of Indonesian regions. The ensemble, while statistically promising, has failed to simulate precipitation in some region.

El Niño Modoki Impacts on Australian Rainfall

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 3167-3174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
Australian Rainfall ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract This study investigates interseasonal and interevent variations in the impact of El Niño on Australian rainfall using available observations from the postsatellite era. Of particular interest is the difference in impact between classical El Niño events wherein peak sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies appear in the eastern Pacific and the recently termed El Niño “Modoki” events that are characterized by distinct warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific and weaker cold anomalies in the west and east of the basin. A clear interseasonal and interevent difference is apparent, with the maximum rainfall response for Modoki events occurring in austral autumn compared to austral spring for classical El Niños. Most interestingly, the Modoki and non-Modoki El Niño events exhibit a marked difference in rainfall impact over Australia: while classical El Niños are associated with a significant reduction in rainfall over northeastern and southeastern Australia, Modoki events appear to drive a large-scale decrease in rainfall over northwestern and northern Australia. In addition, rainfall variations during March–April–May are more sensitive to the Modoki SST anomaly pattern than the conventional El Niño anomalies to the east.

Towards onset: shades of ENSO skill

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dougal Squire ◽  
James Risbey
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
The North ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than

<p>Climate forecast skill for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is better than chance, but has increased little in recent decades. Further, the relative skill of dynamical and statistical models varies in skill assessments, depending on choices made about how to evaluate the forecasts. Using a suite of models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) archive we outline the consequences for skill of how the bias corrections and forecast anomalies are formed. We show that the method for computing forecast anomalies is such a critical part of the provenance of a skill score that any score for forecast anomalies lacking clarity about the method is open to wide interpretation. Many assessments of hindcast skill are likely to be overestimates of attainable forecast skill because the hindcast anomalies are informed by observations over the period assessed that would not be available to a real forecast. The relative skill rankings of forecast models can change between hindcast and forecast systems because the impact of model bias on skill is sensitive to the ways in which forecast anomalies are formed. Dynamical models are found to be more skillful than simple statistical models for forecasting the onset of El Nino events.</p>

Assessing the impact of El Niño Modoki on seasonal precipitation in Colombia

2015 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 41-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Córdoba-Machado ◽  
Reiner Palomino-Lemus ◽  
Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis ◽  
Yolanda Castro-Díez ◽  
María Jesús Esteban-Parra
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using Optimized Combinations of ENSO Regions: Application to the Coral Sea Basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8527-8542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Michael B. Richman ◽  
Lance M. Leslie
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
Coral Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines combining ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) regions for seasonal prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. The Coral Sea averages ~4 TCs per season, but is characterized by strong interannual variability, with 1–9 TCs per season, over the period 1977–2012. A wavelet analysis confirms that ENSO is a key contributor to Coral Sea TC count (TCC) variability. Motivated by the impact of El Niño Modoki on regional climate anomalies, a suite of 38 linear models is constructed and assessed on its ability to predict Coral Sea seasonal TCC. Seasonal predictions of TCC are generated by a leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV). An important finding is that models made up of multiple tropical Pacific SST regions, such as those that comprise the El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) or the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), perform considerably better than models comprising only single regions, such as Niño-3.4 or Niño-4. Moreover, enhanced (suppressed) TC activity is expected in the Coral Sea when the central Pacific is anomalously cool (warm) and the eastern and western Pacific are anomalously warm (cool) during austral winter. The best cross-validated model has persistent and statistically significantly high correlations with TCC (r > 0.5) at lead times of ~6 months prior to the mean onset of the Coral Sea TC season, whereas correlations based heavily on the widely used Niño-3.4 region are not statistically significant or meaningful (r = 0.09) for the same lead times. Of the 38 models assessed, several optimized forms of the EMI and of the TNI perform best.

scholarly journals Maternal Time Poverty Drives Suboptimal Complementary Feeding Practices in the El Niño Affected Eastern Ethiopia Community

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asnake Ararsa Irenso ◽  
Shiferaw Letta ◽  
Addisu Sebsibe ◽  
Abiyot Asfaw ◽  
Gudina Egata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Time Allocation ◽  
Complementary Feeding ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Feeding Practices ◽  
Child Feeding ◽  
Eastern Ethiopia ◽  
Time Poverty ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Ethiopia is affected by recurrent drought and food insecurity crises including from El Niño, the climatic change that lasted from mid-2014 through 2016 and caused the failure of the rainy seasons in eastern Ethiopia. The event is expected to have a detrimental effect on the already suboptimal complementary feeding practices. However, there is a lack of research on how climatic events affect child feeding. Hence, the study was intended to explore how El Niño influenced the complementary feeding practices and experiences of the food-insecure community of eastern Ethiopia from March to September 2016.Methods: This study was an exploratory qualitative study that used a phenomenological approach. The study was conducted in the food-insecure setting of Gale Mirga kebele of Kersa district. The study involved 11 focus group discussion (FGD) comprising a total of 76 participants, including three FGDs with mothers, three FGDs with Health Development Army leaders (HDA); two FGDs with fathers, two FGDs with traditional birth attendants, and one FGD with religious leaders. The Atlas.ti software was used for coding and thematic analysis.Results: El Niño aggravated failed crop and livestock loss were reported to directly reduce the quantity and quality of food available to feed young children, resulting in more frequent skipping of meals, less animal protein sources and over-reliance of cereal-based food. The impact of El Nino on livelihoods often resulted in both parents working away from home with child feeding delegated to older children or other family members. Maternal absence from home was a barrier to participation in community-based nutrition activities. Short birth spacing and low fathers’ involvement in feeding also reduced the time available to mothers to devote to child feeding.Conclusions: The maternal suboptimal time allocation to child feeding is central to the poor complementary feeding practices in El Niño stricken food-insecure settings of Eastern Ethiopia. The women should be supported with climate-resilient livelihoods options in their villages, thus allowing them both to feed their children and attend nutrition education sessions with HDA. Such sessions should focus on food processing demonstrations to improve the nutritional quality of plant-based complementary foods.

scholarly journals The impact of the 2009-10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (13) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Barnard ◽  
Jonathan Allan ◽  
Jeff E. Hansen ◽  
George M. Kaminsky ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Coast ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE EL NINO AND LA NINA REPEATABILITY BY THE END OF THE XXI CENTURY USING THE CMIP6 MODELS

2021 ◽  
pp. 14-21
Author(s):  
E.N. Voskresenskaya ◽  
◽  
O.V. Marchukova ◽  
V.V. Afanasyeva ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Sst Anomalies

The quality of SST anomalies revealed in the equatorial Pacific associated with El Niño (EN) and La Ni-ña (LN) in the CMIP6 project models (KIOST-ESM, MIROC-ES2L and INM-CM4-8) was evaluated by comparing with real events in the period 1950 to 2014 using the ERSSTv5 data sets. It is shown that the ensemble model estimation of the number, intensity and duration of EN and LN corresponds quite well to real conditions. On this basis, the corresponding model ensemble calculations of their future possible changes in 2021-2085 relative to the historical 1950-2014 period were carried out for two possible sce-narios: business-as-usual (SSP2-4.5) and negative (SSP5-8.5).

The impact of the 1997/98 El-Nino rains on the water quality of lake Naivasha, Kenya

2002 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Makhanu ◽  
E. C. Mwachiro ◽  
C. K. Kamau ◽  
A. Gachanja
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Lake Naivasha ◽  
The Impact
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