Objective. To develop and test a risk-scoring model for the prediction of endometrial cancer among symptomatic postmenopausal women at risk of intrauterine malignancy.Methods. We prospectively studied 624 postmenopausal women with vaginal bleeding and endometrial thickness > 4 mm undergoing diagnostic hysteroscopy. Patient characteristics and endometrial assessment of women with or without endometrial cancer were compared. Then, a risk-scoring model, including the best predictors of endometrial cancer, was tested. Univariate, multivariate, and ROC curve analysis were performed. Finally, a split-sampling internal validation was also performed.Results. The best predictors of endometrial cancer were recurrent vaginal bleeding (odds ratio(OR)=2.96), the presence of hypertension(OR=2.01)endometrial thickness > 8 mm(OR=1.31), and age > 65 years(OR=1.11). These variables were used to create a risk-scoring model (RHEA risk-model) for the prediction of intrauterine malignancy, with an area under the curve of 0.878 (95% CI 0.842 to 0.908;P<0.0001). At the best cut-off value (score ≥ 4), sensitivity and specificity were 87.5% and 80.1%, respectively.Conclusion. Among symptomatic postmenopausal women with endometrial thickness > 4 mm, a risk-scoring model including patient characteristics and endometrial thickness showed a moderate diagnostic accuracy in discriminating women with or without endometrial cancer. Based on this model, a decision algorithm was developed for the management of such a population.
OC17.03: Risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic postmenopausal women with endometrial thickness ≥11mm: systematic review and meta-analysis
