Risky Business: Evaluating the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry for Use with New Zealand Youth

10.26686/wgtn.17018765 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Jonathan Muirhead

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

New Zealand ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Community Supervision ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽

Continued Use ◽

Criminal Conduct ◽

Risky Business ◽

Risk Scale

An important assumption that decisions based on criminal risk assessments rely on is that our assessments of someone’s likelihood of reoffending are accurate. It is well known that young people share many risk factors for criminal conduct with adults, but there is also research to suggest that some factors may be more important at different ages. This research examined how well an adult dynamic risk assessment tool, The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR), was able to predict any new criminal conviction as well as any new violent conviction in a sample of New Zealand youth (17-19 years) serving community supervision sentences. It was found that DRAOR scores were moderately strong predictors of future criminal conduct for youth, with better results being found for any reconvictions compared to violent reconvictions. The more recent an assessment was, the more accurate it was too. It was also found that those who did not go on to be reconvicted showed greater improvements on the risk scale throughout the course of their sentence than those who were reconvicted. These findings support the continued use of the DRAOR for youth in New Zealand who are serving community supervision sentences.

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Assessing women’s risk of recidivism: An investigation into the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) with matched samples of community-sentenced women and men

10.26686/wgtn.17065064 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Jessica Scanlan

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

New Zealand ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Risk Assessment Tool ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Gender Neutral ◽

Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽

Matched Samples

Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars claim these factors operate differentially by gender and that certain proposed women-specific risk factors are neglected in the existing gender-neutral risk assessment tools. The present research evaluated one such gender-neutral risk assessment tool used by New Zealand Department of Corrections: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012). The research was comparative and examined the predictive validity of the DRAOR for breaches of sentence and criminal reconvictions in matched samples of New Zealand women and men who had served community supervision sentences. Cox regression and AUC analyses showed the initial DRAOR had mixed predictive validity and the proximal DRAOR comparative predictive validity across gender. Additionally, the proximal DRAOR assessment consistently outperformed the initial DRAOR in the prediction of reconvictions for both women and men. Further, offenders made significant change on the DRAOR between two assessment points and overall the change made on the DRAOR was significantly related to reconvictions for women and men. For both samples, the RoC*RoI did not predict breach reconvictions; however, the proximal DRAOR TS provided incremental predictive validity above the RoC*RoI for criminal reconvictions. To conclude, the research supports the continued use of the DRAOR as a risk prediction tool with community-sentenced women and men and thus supports gender neutrality. Further, the research supports the dynamic nature of the DRAOR and highlighted the importance of updating dynamic risk assessments. Additionally, the research recommends that change made on a dynamic risk assessment tool over time be considered useful for predictive purposes for women and men alike.

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Assessing women’s risk of recidivism: An investigation into the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) with matched samples of community-sentenced women and men

10.26686/wgtn.17065064.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Jessica Scanlan

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

New Zealand ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Risk Assessment Tool ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Gender Neutral ◽

Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽

Matched Samples

Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars claim these factors operate differentially by gender and that certain proposed women-specific risk factors are neglected in the existing gender-neutral risk assessment tools. The present research evaluated one such gender-neutral risk assessment tool used by New Zealand Department of Corrections: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012). The research was comparative and examined the predictive validity of the DRAOR for breaches of sentence and criminal reconvictions in matched samples of New Zealand women and men who had served community supervision sentences. Cox regression and AUC analyses showed the initial DRAOR had mixed predictive validity and the proximal DRAOR comparative predictive validity across gender. Additionally, the proximal DRAOR assessment consistently outperformed the initial DRAOR in the prediction of reconvictions for both women and men. Further, offenders made significant change on the DRAOR between two assessment points and overall the change made on the DRAOR was significantly related to reconvictions for women and men. For both samples, the RoC*RoI did not predict breach reconvictions; however, the proximal DRAOR TS provided incremental predictive validity above the RoC*RoI for criminal reconvictions. To conclude, the research supports the continued use of the DRAOR as a risk prediction tool with community-sentenced women and men and thus supports gender neutrality. Further, the research supports the dynamic nature of the DRAOR and highlighted the importance of updating dynamic risk assessments. Additionally, the research recommends that change made on a dynamic risk assessment tool over time be considered useful for predictive purposes for women and men alike.

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Predicting Women’s Recidivism Using the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry: Preliminary Evidence of Predictive Validity With Community-Sentenced Women Using a “Gender-Neutral” Risk Measure

Criminal Justice and Behavior ◽

10.1177/0093854819896387 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 47 (3) ◽

pp. 251-270

Author(s):

Jessica M. Scanlan ◽

Julia A. Yesberg ◽

Clare-Ann Fortune ◽

Devon L. L. Polaschek

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Risk Measure ◽

Assessment Tools ◽

Community Supervision ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Gender Neutral ◽

Dynamic Risk Assessment

Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars suggest these factors operate differently across gender and that women-specific risk factors are neglected in existing “gender-neutral” risk assessment tools. This article explored the predictive validity of one gender-neutral risk assessment tool—the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR)—with matched samples of women and men serving community supervision sentences. Total DRAOR scores had comparative predictive validity across gender. For women and men, the DRAOR predicted reconviction over a static risk measure. The findings support the general premise of gender neutrality, but do not necessarily suggest the DRAOR, or gender-neutral tools more broadly, are the best tools for use with women.

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