scholarly journals Assessing women’s risk of recidivism: An investigation into the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) with matched samples of community-sentenced women and men

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jessica Scanlan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Gender Neutral ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Matched Samples

<p>Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars claim these factors operate differentially by gender and that certain proposed women-specific risk factors are neglected in the existing gender-neutral risk assessment tools. The present research evaluated one such gender-neutral risk assessment tool used by New Zealand Department of Corrections: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012). The research was comparative and examined the predictive validity of the DRAOR for breaches of sentence and criminal reconvictions in matched samples of New Zealand women and men who had served community supervision sentences. Cox regression and AUC analyses showed the initial DRAOR had mixed predictive validity and the proximal DRAOR comparative predictive validity across gender. Additionally, the proximal DRAOR assessment consistently outperformed the initial DRAOR in the prediction of reconvictions for both women and men. Further, offenders made significant change on the DRAOR between two assessment points and overall the change made on the DRAOR was significantly related to reconvictions for women and men. For both samples, the RoC*RoI did not predict breach reconvictions; however, the proximal DRAOR TS provided incremental predictive validity above the RoC*RoI for criminal reconvictions. To conclude, the research supports the continued use of the DRAOR as a risk prediction tool with community-sentenced women and men and thus supports gender neutrality. Further, the research supports the dynamic nature of the DRAOR and highlighted the importance of updating dynamic risk assessments. Additionally, the research recommends that change made on a dynamic risk assessment tool over time be considered useful for predictive purposes for women and men alike.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing women’s risk of recidivism: An investigation into the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) with matched samples of community-sentenced women and men

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jessica Scanlan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Gender Neutral ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Matched Samples

<p>Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars claim these factors operate differentially by gender and that certain proposed women-specific risk factors are neglected in the existing gender-neutral risk assessment tools. The present research evaluated one such gender-neutral risk assessment tool used by New Zealand Department of Corrections: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012). The research was comparative and examined the predictive validity of the DRAOR for breaches of sentence and criminal reconvictions in matched samples of New Zealand women and men who had served community supervision sentences. Cox regression and AUC analyses showed the initial DRAOR had mixed predictive validity and the proximal DRAOR comparative predictive validity across gender. Additionally, the proximal DRAOR assessment consistently outperformed the initial DRAOR in the prediction of reconvictions for both women and men. Further, offenders made significant change on the DRAOR between two assessment points and overall the change made on the DRAOR was significantly related to reconvictions for women and men. For both samples, the RoC*RoI did not predict breach reconvictions; however, the proximal DRAOR TS provided incremental predictive validity above the RoC*RoI for criminal reconvictions. To conclude, the research supports the continued use of the DRAOR as a risk prediction tool with community-sentenced women and men and thus supports gender neutrality. Further, the research supports the dynamic nature of the DRAOR and highlighted the importance of updating dynamic risk assessments. Additionally, the research recommends that change made on a dynamic risk assessment tool over time be considered useful for predictive purposes for women and men alike.</p>

scholarly journals Predicting Women’s Recidivism Using the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry: Preliminary Evidence of Predictive Validity With Community-Sentenced Women Using a “Gender-Neutral” Risk Measure

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-270
Author(s):  
Jessica M. Scanlan ◽  
Julia A. Yesberg ◽  
Clare-Ann Fortune ◽  
Devon L. L. Polaschek
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Gender Neutral ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars suggest these factors operate differently across gender and that women-specific risk factors are neglected in existing “gender-neutral” risk assessment tools. This article explored the predictive validity of one gender-neutral risk assessment tool—the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR)—with matched samples of women and men serving community supervision sentences. Total DRAOR scores had comparative predictive validity across gender. For women and men, the DRAOR predicted reconviction over a static risk measure. The findings support the general premise of gender neutrality, but do not necessarily suggest the DRAOR, or gender-neutral tools more broadly, are the best tools for use with women.

scholarly journals Risky Business: Evaluating the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry for Use with New Zealand Youth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jonathan Muirhead
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Continued Use ◽  
Criminal Conduct ◽  
Risky Business ◽  
Risk Scale

<p>An important assumption that decisions based on criminal risk assessments rely on is that our assessments of someone’s likelihood of reoffending are accurate. It is well known that young people share many risk factors for criminal conduct with adults, but there is also research to suggest that some factors may be more important at different ages. This research examined how well an adult dynamic risk assessment tool, The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR), was able to predict any new criminal conviction as well as any new violent conviction in a sample of New Zealand youth (17-19 years) serving community supervision sentences. It was found that DRAOR scores were moderately strong predictors of future criminal conduct for youth, with better results being found for any reconvictions compared to violent reconvictions. The more recent an assessment was, the more accurate it was too. It was also found that those who did not go on to be reconvicted showed greater improvements on the risk scale throughout the course of their sentence than those who were reconvicted. These findings support the continued use of the DRAOR for youth in New Zealand who are serving community supervision sentences.</p>

scholarly journals Risky Business: Evaluating the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry for Use with New Zealand Youth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jonathan Muirhead
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Continued Use ◽  
Criminal Conduct ◽  
Risky Business ◽  
Risk Scale

<p>An important assumption that decisions based on criminal risk assessments rely on is that our assessments of someone’s likelihood of reoffending are accurate. It is well known that young people share many risk factors for criminal conduct with adults, but there is also research to suggest that some factors may be more important at different ages. This research examined how well an adult dynamic risk assessment tool, The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR), was able to predict any new criminal conviction as well as any new violent conviction in a sample of New Zealand youth (17-19 years) serving community supervision sentences. It was found that DRAOR scores were moderately strong predictors of future criminal conduct for youth, with better results being found for any reconvictions compared to violent reconvictions. The more recent an assessment was, the more accurate it was too. It was also found that those who did not go on to be reconvicted showed greater improvements on the risk scale throughout the course of their sentence than those who were reconvicted. These findings support the continued use of the DRAOR for youth in New Zealand who are serving community supervision sentences.</p>

Reliability and Predictive Validity of a Consensus-Based Risk Assessment Tool

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G. Barber ◽  
Aron Shlonsky ◽  
Tara Black ◽  
Deborah Goodman ◽  
Nico Trocmé
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool

scholarly journals Choice of a suitable diabetes risk assessment tool in Nepal – can we learn from Canada?

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 548-550
Author(s):  
Gina Agarwal ◽  
Brijesh Sathian ◽  
Sutapa Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Diabetes Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Educational Tool ◽  
Diabetes Risk Factors ◽  
The Masses

If the population can be made more aware about diabetes by the use of a risk assessment tool as an educational tool as well, it could help to curb the diabetes epidemic in Nepal. Education of the masses about diabetes risk factors, prevention, and complications is urgently needed, using clear and simple messages. National policy efforts can be strengthened and health  outcomes improved when awareness is increased. Perhaps learning from Canada is a start, and Nepal will be able to make progress with something simple like ‘NEPAL-RISK’?

scholarly journals Will You Run? The Development of a Risk Assessment Tool to Predict Absconding from Secure Youth Justice Residences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jesse Wood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Protective Factors ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk And Protective Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Youth Justice ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Contextual Risk ◽  
Staff Members

<p>Absconding, or escaping, from usually state-based custody is a growing problem in different settings across the world, including New Zealand’s secure youth justice residences. This thesis provides an in-depth review of absconding from Oranga Tamariki’s secure youth justice residences in New Zealand, providing important insight that will be useful in preventing absconding in the future. A review of the international and New Zealand absconding literature was conducted looking at the risk and protective factors associated with absconding risk. From this, a coding framework of absconding related factors was developed, and then applied to historic absconding incident reports and interviews with Oranga Tamariki staff members. These were analysed to confirm potential absconding risk or protective factors and identify any new factors. Results fell into four key categories: individual (e.g. previous absconding history), relational (e.g. avoidance goals), contextual risk factors (e.g. significant life stressors), and protective factors (e.g. positive staff relationships). Several implications and conclusions were drawn from the findings. Absconding factors identified in international research were also present in the current research adding weight to these as potential risk and protective factors in a New Zealand context (Martin et al., 2018; Powers et al., 2018; Pyrooz, 2012). Novel absconding related factors were identified which were not found in the extant literature, such as planning indications, ringleaders, and hope. The reasons young people abscond are complex and individual, however, they abscond for reasons that make sense—often as a coping strategy—and thus are identifiable. By identifying these underlying reasons, it is possible to intervene and reduce their absconding motivations. A preliminary risk assessment tool aimed at doing this, was created for Oranga Tamariki use, incorporating factors drawn from the current research and the wider literature.</p>

scholarly journals Comparison of Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Older Indonesian Adults in the Elderly Home and the Community

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 241
Author(s):  
Indri Hapsari Susilowati ◽  
Susiana Nugraha ◽  
Sabarinah Sabarinah ◽  
Bonardo Prayogo Hasiholan ◽  
Supa Pengpid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Fall Risk Assessment ◽  
Elderly Home ◽  
Balance Confidence ◽  
Confidence Scale

Introduction: One of the causes of disability among elderly is falling. The ability to predict the risk of falls among this group is important so that the appropriate treatment can be provided to reduce the risk. The objective of this study was to compare the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, & Injuries (STEADI) Initiative from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) from the Johns Hopkins University. Methods: This study used the STEADI tool, JHFRAT, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC), and The Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). The study areas were in community and elderly home in both public and private sectors and the samples were 427 after cleaning. Results: The results for the STEADI and JHFRAT tools were similar where the respondents at highest risk of falling among women (STEADI: 49%; JHFRAT: 3.4%), in Bandung area (63.5%; 5.4%), in private homes (63.3%; 4.4%), non-schools (54.6%; 6.2%), aged 80 or older (64.8%; 6.7%) and not working (48.9%;3.3%). The regression analysis indicated that there was a significant relationship between the risk factors for falls in the elderly determined by the JHFRAT and STEADI tools: namely, region, type of home, age, disease history, total GDS and ABC averages. Conclusion: Despite the similarity in the risk factors obtained through these assessments, there was a significant difference between the results for the STEADI tool and the JHFRAT. The test strength was 43%. However, STEADI is more sensitive to detect fall risk smong elderly than JHFRATKeywords: Activities-Specific Balance Confidence scale, elderly, fall risk,The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool, the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, & Injuries

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