scholarly journals Uncertainty Estimation of HEC-HMS Flood Simulation Model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithm

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (15) ◽  
pp. 235-249
Author(s):  
مه روز نورعلی ◽  
بیژن قهرمان ◽  
محسن پوررضا بیلندی ◽  
کامران داوری ◽  
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...  
2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3213-3229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark F. Lunt ◽  
Matt Rigby ◽  
Anita L. Ganesan ◽  
Alistair J. Manning

Abstract. Atmospheric trace gas inversions often attempt to attribute fluxes to a high-dimensional grid using observations. To make this problem computationally feasible, and to reduce the degree of under-determination, some form of dimension reduction is usually performed. Here, we present an objective method for reducing the spatial dimension of the parameter space in atmospheric trace gas inversions. In addition to solving for a set of unknowns that govern emissions of a trace gas, we set out a framework that considers the number of unknowns to itself be an unknown. We rely on the well-established reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to use the data to determine the dimension of the parameter space. This framework provides a single-step process that solves for both the resolution of the inversion grid, as well as the magnitude of fluxes from this grid. Therefore, the uncertainty that surrounds the choice of aggregation is accounted for in the posterior parameter distribution. The posterior distribution of this transdimensional Markov chain provides a naturally smoothed solution, formed from an ensemble of coarser partitions of the spatial domain. We describe the form of the reversible-jump algorithm and how it may be applied to trace gas inversions. We build the system into a hierarchical Bayesian framework in which other unknown factors, such as the magnitude of the model uncertainty, can also be explored. A pseudo-data example is used to show the usefulness of this approach when compared to a subjectively chosen partitioning of a spatial domain. An inversion using real data is also shown to illustrate the scales at which the data allow for methane emissions over north-west Europe to be resolved.


2016 ◽  
Vol 829 ◽  
pp. 133-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Xie ◽  
Zhao Wei Zhong

Recently, unmanned vehicle (UV) research has increased its popularity around the globe not only for military applications but also for civilian uses. For military fields, UVs can enhance homeland defense, carry out coast and air surveillance, counter terrorists and most importantly, reduce harm to the manned force when certain mission may contain threat. As a consequence, UVs become an inevitable part of the Navy Force and extend the Navy mission handling capabilities. When it comes to research, UVs can be used to observe the climate, deliver goods, perform undersea testing, etc. But the open environment is dynamic, unforeseen and fast changing. Thus, a UV which has the ability to choose the optimal path autonomously based on the current situation not only can increase the efficiency of the UV, but also can save costs and time for the users. As a result, increasing the autonomy of the UV has attracted the attention of many researchersin recent years. Our research is based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation model. We develop a simulation model architecture so as to realize collision free path planning and path optimization of an unmanned vehicle.


2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (S304) ◽  
pp. 228-229
Author(s):  
Gabriela Calistro Rivera ◽  
Elisabeta Lusso ◽  
Joseph F. Hennawi ◽  
David W. Hogg

AbstractWe present AGNfitter: a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm developed to fit the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) with different physical models of AGN components. This code is well suited to determine in a robust way multiple parameters and their uncertainties, which quantify the physical processes responsible for the panchromatic nature of active galaxies and quasars. We describe the technicalities of the code and test its capabilities in the context of X-ray selected obscured AGN using multiwavelength data from the XMM-COSMOS survey.


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