Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandip Kumar Agarwal
Author(s):  
A. Chokri ◽  
J.-Y. Trépanier ◽  
C. Tribes

In this paper, we consider setting performance targets for a vehicle design. The vehicle is modeled by a multilevel hierarchical tree structure. We have considered that each leaf of the structure may have several characteristics, and that for each characteristic a target is defined. Experts’ opinions are expressed with uncertainty regarding the feasibility of achieving these targets. Experts’ opinions are given in the form of intervals associated with their subjective beliefs for the possible values of characteristics. The collected information is propagated in the model to determine the plausibility and the belief for characteristics at the vehicle level. Using this information, five target allocation approaches are discussed which can be applied to three vehicle design strategies.


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