scholarly journals Investigating the efficiency of the Asian handicap football betting market with ratings and Bayesian networks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Anthony C. Constantinou
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Return On Investment ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Premier League ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Traditional Market ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
English Premier League ◽  
Betting Decision

Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents the first published model specifically developed for prediction and assessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on 13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market, where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations have been examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) market odds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted and published odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, and d) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changes when targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While the AH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, the findings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities between the two.

Never Tell Me the Odds: The Stingy Odds for Leicester City to Win the English Premier League

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Matthew Hood ◽  
William Chittenden ◽  
R. Todd Jewell
Keyword(s):  
Professional Sports ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Premier League ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
History Of ◽  
English Premier League

The crowning of Leicester City FC as English Premier League champions in 2016 is arguably the biggest upset in the history of professional sports. The pre-season odds posted for LCFC to win the EPL were 5,000:1, worse than finding Elvis alive. In our model, they win just once per 70,000 simulations; thus, bettors could expect a return of just 0.071 of the stake when betting on Leicester City. This is similar to the expected return of betting on all of the long-shots in our simulations; however, the expected value of bets on favorites averages 0.864. We find that the betting market is segmented for favorites and long-shots; while the market for favorites resembles a normal betting market, the market for long-shots is like a lottery.

scholarly journals Determining the level of ability of football teams by dynamic ratings based on the relative discrepancies in scores between adversaries

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Costa Constantinou ◽  
Norman Elliott Fenton
Keyword(s):  
Simple Technique ◽  
Simple Approach ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Association Football ◽  
Premier League ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
English Premier League ◽  
Academic Study

AbstractA rating system provides relative measures of superiority between adversaries. We propose a novel and simple approach, which we call pi-rating, for dynamically rating Association Football teams solely on the basis of the relative discrepancies in scores through relevant match instances. The pi-rating system is applicable to any other sport where the score is considered as a good indicator for prediction purposes, as well as determining the relative performances between adversaries. In an attempt to examine how well the ratings capture a team’s performance, we have a) assessed them against two recently proposed football ELO rating variants and b) used them as the basis of a football betting strategy against published market odds. The results show that the pi-ratings outperform considerably the widely accepted ELO ratings and, perhaps more importantly, demonstrate profitability over a period of five English Premier League seasons (2007/2008–2011/2012), even allowing for the bookmakers’ built-in profit margin. This is the first academic study to demonstrate profitability against market odds using such a relatively simple technique, and the resulting pi-ratings can be incorporated as parameters into other more sophisticated models in an attempt to further enhance forecasting capability.

scholarly journals Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Mark Richard ◽  
Jan Vecer
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Stopping Times ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Martingale Approach ◽  
Optimal Trading ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
English Premier League

This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the best predictor of the outcome and all previous quotes should be statistically insignificant. We use regression analysis to test for the significance of the previous quotes in both the time setup and the spatial setup based on stopping times, when the quoted probabilities reach certain bounds. The main contribution of this paper is to show how a potentially different distributional opinion based on the violation of the market efficiency can be monetized by optimal trading, where the agent maximizes logarithmic utility function. In particular, the trader can realize a trading profit that corresponds to the likelihood ratio in the situation of one market maker and one market taker, or the Bayes factor in the situation of two or more market takers.

scholarly journals Asymmetry after Hamstring Injury in English Premier League: Issue Resolved, Or Perhaps Not?

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (06) ◽  
pp. 455-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Barreira ◽  
B. Drust ◽  
M. Robinson ◽  
J. Vanrenterghem
Keyword(s):  
Hamstring Injury ◽  
Premier League ◽  
English Premier League
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