Strategies of German Bundesliga and English Premier League clubs for the COVID-19 crisis: the case of international broadcasting fans

During the COVID-19 pandemic that paused sports worldwide, the German Bundesliga League (GBL) and English Premier League (EPL) took two different strategic approaches to agree with their players on returning to play. To become better informed and prepared for future crisis management, this study examines consumer responses to these opposing strategies. We also identify how perceived organizational legitimacy, trustworthiness, reliance, and justifiability have an impact on consumer multimedia consumption of the games. A sample of 503 participants responded to an online questionnaire regarding the contrasting decisions taken by the GBL and the EPL during the global health crisis. SEM with multi-group analysis was conducted to test the research hypotheses. When comparing the two selected sport leagues, the league that reached an agreement with their players experienced higher levels of perceived legitimacy while needing fewer perceptions of trustworthiness, reliance, and justifiability to obtain higher multimedia consumption intention from consumers.

Investigating the efficiency of the Asian handicap football betting market with ratings and Bayesian networks

Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents the first published model specifically developed for prediction and assessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on 13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market, where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations have been examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) market odds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted and published odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, and d) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changes when targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While the AH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, the findings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities between the two.

Analyzing the effectiveness of UEFA's financial fair play regulations: A comparative study of the French Ligue 1 and the English Premier League

This article assesses the effectiveness of the UEFA Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations, one of the few financial regulatory tools for open leagues in Europe in two top divisions in Europe. The objective of FFP borrows from the theoretical concept of ‘soft budget constraint’ in sport finance and regulation literature. Introduced by UEFA in 2011 and fully implemented from 2013, FFP requires clubs qualifying for European competitions to comply with the financial concept of “break-even”, where football expenses should not exceed football revenues. This study uses the French Ligue 1 (L1) and the English Premier League (PL) as a case study for analysing the effectiveness of FFP and includes thirteen clubs (seven French and six English) in total. The selection of clubs was guided firstly by data access but was also restricted to clubs regularly participating in European competitions between 2011, when FFP came into effect, and 2018. The scope of the study enabled us to measure the effect of FFP with regard to the break-even rule and the payroll ratios before and after its full application by comparing the periods 2008-2013 and 2013-2018 using descriptive statistics and tests of comparisons. The results are contrasted according to the national context of the clubs studied and the indicators analysed. First, they show a general improvement in the profitability of the clubs in the sample, although the results are statistically significant only in the case of the PL. Concerning the payroll ratios, the first measure (payroll/operating expenses) decreased significantly for all clubs, with significant differences found comparatively in the case of the L1. The second measure (payroll/operating income) also decreased, but the decrease was only significant at the sample level when the trading activity was included in operating income. From a theoretical perspective, this contribution makes it possible to compare the conclusions obtained with existing works, be it predictive or empirical in nature. From a managerial point of view, it calls for UEFA to remain vigilant in respect of FFP. While the results appear to suggest that FFP has been effective in improving the financial equilibrium of clubs and their payroll ratios, the link between better financial health and good governance remains a key challenge for the industry moving forward. Cet article ambitionne d’évaluer l’efficacité du système de Fair-play financier (FPF), un des rares outils de régulation des ligues ouvertes en Europe. Elle s’inscrit dans le cadre de la régulation financière des ligues de sports collectifs en empruntant des éléments théoriques au concept de « contrainte budgétaire lâche ». Instauré par l’UEFA en 2011 et pleinement appliqué à partir de 2013, le FPF impose aux clubs qualifiés en coupes d’Europe de respecter une règle d’équilibre financier limitant leurs montants de dépenses issues de l’activité football à ceux de leurs recettes, sans l’aide d’apports extérieurs. Pour parvenir à cet objectif, nous avons retenu sept clubs évoluant en Ligue 1 française (L1) et six en Premier League anglaise (PL). Cette sélection a d’abord été guidée par l’accès aux données et a été restreinte aux clubs participant régulièrement aux compétitions européennes entre 2011, année d’entrée en vigueur du FPF, et 2018. Le périmètre ainsi constitué nous a permis de mesurer l’effet du FPF au regard de la règle d’équilibre et des ratios de masse salariale avant et après sa pleine application en comparant les périodes 2008-2013 et 2013-2018 à partir de statistiques descriptives et de tests de comparaisons. Les résultats sont contrastés en fonction du contexte national des clubs étudiés et des indicateurs analysés. Ils montrent d’abord une amélioration générale de la profitabilité des clubs sur l’ensemble de l’échantillon même si, au niveau national, les résultats ne sont statistiquement significatifs que dans le cas de la PL. Concernant les ratios de masse salariale, le premier étudié (masse salariale/charges d’exploitation) a diminué de façon significative sur l’ensemble des clubs même si la significativité des tests de comparaison n’a été constatée, cette fois-ci, que dans le cas de la L1. Le second (masse salariale/revenus d’exploitation) a également diminué mais la baisse n’est significative à l’échelle de l’échantillon que lorsque l’activité de transfert est intégrée aux revenus d’exploitation. D’un point de vue théorique, cette contribution permet de confronter les conclusions obtenues aux travaux existants qu’ils soient de nature prédictive ou empirique. D’un point de vue managérial, elle invite l’UEFA à rester vigilante car, si les résultats sont plutôt flatteurs laissant à penser que le FPF a été efficace dans l’amélioration de l’équilibre financier des clubs et de leurs ratios de masse salariale, le lien entre meilleure santé financière et bonne gouvernance est toutefois interrogé en fin d’article.

Application of Game Theory and Markov Chains on English Premier League (EPL) Scorelines Analysis

The aim of this paper is to obtain the optimal strategies of two competitive players using Game Theorem and to make future predictions of games using Markov Chains involving the EPL. All the teams that have participated since 2005/2006 EPL season to EPL 2019/2020 season were considered and the method of proportion of wins was used to select five best teams. Linear programming was employed to select the optimal strategies, while the predictions for seasons 2020/2021 to 2023/2024 are obtained by Markov chain method. The results obtained revealed that Man U is the optimal strategy for Player A, and that Player A has to choose Man U to maximize his profit, meanwhile, Chelsea is the optimal strategy for Player B and he has to choose Chelsea to minimize his loss. The findings of the results also revealed that for Man U or Chelsea to win their home games, it will depend on their current home winning against the team they are playing with.

KOMODIFIKASI SIARAN OLAHRAGA DI TELEVISI PUBLIK: STUDI KASUS LIGA PRIMER INGGRIS DI LPP TVRI

Sport and media have a long history of mutually beneficial relationship. Sport has become a commodity. Private televisions use sport programs to gain more profits through various methods, such as advertising and paid subscription. The potential benefits that media can gain from sport have driven the competition between broadcasters to get the broadcasting rights and thus drive the broadcasting rights fees higher every season. In 2019, TVRI with limited annual budget can acquire English Premier League broadcasting rights through partnership with Mola TV. TVRI as a public service broadcaster is not allowed to be profit-oriented like private televisions. This article investigates commodification of sport in Indonesian public television, TVRI, with study case of English Premier League. Data are collected from literature study and observation, then it is analyzed from a political economy perspective. It is found that TVRI use English Premier League to gain more audiences and profits through various sport programs - similar to private televisions, but with some limitations that public television has.

Fans’ Perceptions towards Video Assistant Referee (VAR) in the English Premier League

The video assistant referee (VAR) in association football was developed to help on-field referees judge potentially game-changing decisions correctly by reviewing video evidence in real time. VAR was implemented by the English Premier League (EPL) ahead of the 2019/20 season. Despite its potential benefits, VAR also presents the risk of not being well perceived by fans. This article aims to investigate fans’ perceptions towards VAR in the EPL. Total of 1350 EPL fans from different age groups above 18 years old completed an online survey on their opinion of VAR and changes they felt would make VAR better. The majority of fans were happy for VAR to continue being used in the EPL, but expressed that changes need to be made in terms of how VAR is being used by on-field referees and to assess certain situations. All age groups were generally positive towards the idea of using technology in the EPL to support referee decisions and provide more information to in-stadium fans, but younger age groups showed significantly more positive perceptions than their older counterparts. Implications include advice for the EPL to make changes according to fans’ opinions and to develop frameworks for making changes with fans as stakeholders in mind.

The Dirty League: English Premier League Provides Higher Incentives for Fouling as Compared to other European Soccer Leagues

Fouling in soccer has been studied from an ethical standpoint as a measure of aggression. However, there is limited research related to fouling for performance. The present study investigated fouling as a factor influencing performance in European soccer leagues. Out of possession fouls (FPGNorm), yellow cards (YCFNorm), and their ratio (YCPFPG) were used as predictors of points (Pts) and goals conceded (GA) at the end of the season using three separate linear regression models. Furthermore, 5-fold cross-validation was used to measure out sample reliability. All the models significantly predicted GA and Pts (p < 0.001). Models predicting GA showed higher reliability than models predicting points. Cross validation (CV) results suggested that FPGNorm and YCPFPG models showed a small standard deviation (SD) in the R2 results whereas the results from YCFNorm were not reliable to high SD in the 5-fold CV results. In summary, FPGNorm and YCPFPG seem to predict success (low GA and high Pts) across European soccer leagues, with EPL showing the maximum effect. The findings of the current study and the methodology can be applied to an actual game analysis by coaches in multiple invasion sports. Normalizing for out of possession time is a crucial step for the time spent in particular phases of play, which has not been done in previous research while analyzing ‘key performance indices’ (KPIs). Normalization can successfully introduce domain-specific knowledge into predictors, which can be used in complex algorithms improving predictions and investigation of underlying mechanisms.

The effectiveness of UEFA Financial Fair Play: evidence from England and France, 2008–2018

PurposeThis paper analyses the effectiveness of UEFA's Financial Fair Play (FFP) under the break-even requirement.Design/methodology/approachData was collected from English and French football clubs competing in the English Premier League (EPL) and in Ligue 1 (L1) for the financial years 2008–2018. Our sample includes 395 club-year observations. Relevant statistical tests have been conducted with the aim of analysing the effects of pre (2008–2012) and post (2012–2018) FFP enforcement under both profitability and cost-efficiency assumptions.FindingsIn the EPL, an increase is observed in clubs' profitability through both operating and break-even results. In L1, this improvement is only significant for break-even results of clubs not participating regularly in European competitions (non Euro-oriented clubs). Player expenditures, measured through two wage-to-revenue ratios excluding trading activity for one and including it for the other, have significantly decreased in the EPL except for the Euro-oriented clubs for this latter. Conversely, in L1, this decrease is only significant in both wage-to-revenue ratios for non Euro-oriented clubs and for the whole sample when trading is included.Practical implicationsIn addition to evidencing contrasting results in FFP effectiveness across countries, our results suggest it is not the sole cause of such an improvement in clubs' finances. We suggest that UEFA should pursue its efforts to scrutinise the level of clubs' player expenditures and that there is a need for a wider look at the FFP regulations.Originality/valueThis article provides further contribution to empirical studies on FFP effectiveness that have often been focused on a single country.