scholarly journals Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Diebold
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The Great Recession

scholarly journals The Evolution of Household Income Volatility

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Dynan ◽  
Douglas Elmendorf ◽  
Daniel Sichel
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Longitudinal Survey ◽  
Income Volatility ◽  
Transfer Payments ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Labor Earnings ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Using a representative longitudinal survey of U.S. households, we find that household income became noticeably more volatile between the early 1970s and the late 2000s despite the moderation seen in aggregate economic activity during this period. We estimate that the standard deviation of percent changes in household income rose about 30 percent between 1971 and 2008. This widening in the distribution of percent changes was concentrated in the tails. The share of households experiencing a 50 percent plunge in income over a two-year period climbed from about 7 percent in the early 1970s to more than 12 percent in the early 2000s before retreating to 10 percent in the run-up to the Great Recession. Households’ labor earnings and transfer payments have both become more volatile over time. As best we can tell, the rise in the volatility of men’s earnings appears to owe both to greater volatility in earnings per hour and in hours worked.

scholarly journals Understanding the Great Recession

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence J. Christiano ◽  
Martin S. Eichenbaum ◽  
Mathias Trabandt
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Price Rigidities ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Joint Behavior

We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the Great Recession. According to the model the observed fall in total factor productivity and the rise in the cost of working capital played critical roles in accounting for the small drop in inflation that occurred during the Great Recession. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E52)

scholarly journals Forecasting Unemployment in Real Time during the Great Recession: An Elusive Task

2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Murat Tasci ◽  
Caitlin Treanor
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Near Term

With the unemployment rate becoming a prominent factor in monetary policy decisions in recent years, forecasting the path of the rate in the near term has taken on a new urgency. How well do our current methods do in this task? We look at the performance of various publicly available forecasts, along with some econometric models, and evaluate their success at forecasting the unemployment rate in real time around the Great Recession. Unfortunately, the forecasting approaches we analyze performed very poorly until the beginning of the recovery. We discuss some possible reasons for this poor forecast performance.

scholarly journals The housing market-bank credit relationship: Some thoughts on its causality

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Arestis ◽  
Ana González
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Endogenous Money ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
Development Of Economic Theory

The dominance of the orthodox paradigm over the last decades prior to the ?great recession? left no room for the notion of ?endogenous money? in the development of economic theory. However, this alternative direction of the causality of demand for money-credit and economic activity has been present in the heterodox economic thought since the 1930s and should be reconsidered in the current situation. In this context, the numerous episodes of housing bubbles, which have been taking place since 2007, create the perfect ?environment? to explore the notion of ?dynamic monetized production economy?. Our theoretical framework is estimated econometrically by using a sample of 6 developed economies which spans from 1970 to 2011. The non-stationary ?nature? of our data recommends the use of cointegration techniques (S?ren Johansen 1995) in order to estimate our models.

VALIDATING CHINA'S OUTPUT DATA USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 3327-3354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen D. Morris ◽  
Junjie Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Nitrogen Dioxide ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
National Level ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Output Data ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Recession Period

Can officially reported output figures be externally validated? This paper presents a dynamic panel framework for assessing statistics using verifiable signals of economic activity. In this context, satellite readings of nitrogen dioxide, a byproduct of combustion, are forwarded. The problem of validating China's reported gross domestic product at the sub-national level during two recent downturns is considered. During the Great Recession period, reported figures are validated for some regions, but not others, including specifically those known to be inaccurate.

scholarly journals Tracking the Pandemic in Real Time: Administrative Micro Data in Business Cycles Enters the Spotlight

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-66
Author(s):  
Joseph Vavra
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
The Great Recession

In this paper I discuss the increasingly prominent role of administrative micro data in macroeconomics research. This type of data proved important for interpreting the causes and consequences of the Great Recession, and it has played a crucial role in shaping economists’ understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic in near real-time. I discuss a number of specific insights from this research while also illustrating some of the broader opportunities and challenges of working with administrative data.

scholarly journals Could the start of the German recession 2008–2009 have been foreseen? Evidence from Real-Time Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 237 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ullrich Heilemann ◽  
Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Truth Effect ◽  
Real Time Data

Abstract The Great Recession in Germany was noticed only seven months after its onset. This study examines whether the available data could have helped to predict or identify the crisis in real time. After assessing the accuracy of previous recession forecasts, we examine that of forecasts published from April to December 2008 by twelve major national and international forecast institutions and confront them with real-time data from official statistics, major surveys, and indicators. While annual forecasts for 2008 were unusually accurate due to errors of semi-annual forecasts offsetting each other, forecasters failed to observe the onset of the recession in Q2 2008, although from May onward an increasing amount of data indicated that the economy was in recession or was likely about to enter one. Though the data were neither ambiguous nor misleading, forecasters recognised the onset of the recession as late as mid-November, but also failed to warn of a coming recession. The most convincing explanations for these failures to recognize the crisis in time appear to have been the ‘truth effect’ and forecasters’ ‘low priors about the likelihood of a recession’.

scholarly journals Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Del Negro ◽  
Marc P. Giannoni ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
New Keynesian Models

Several prominent economists have argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a protracted but relatively modest decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008:IV. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E37, E44, E52, G01)

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