The Effect of Sanitation Felling on the Spread of the European Spruce Bark Beetle—An Individual-Based Modeling Approach

Sanitation felling is considered as the main measure to protect managed forests from damage due to outbreaks of the European Spruce Bark Beetle. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of sanitation felling on stopping the spread of a bark beetle population from an un-managed to a managed forest area. For this, we advance an individual-based dispersion model of Ips typographus by adding the influence of wind on the beetle dispersion and by importing GIS data to simulate real world forests. To validate the new model version and to find reasonable parameter values, we conduct simulation experiments to reproduce infestation patterns that occurred in 2015, 2016, and 2017 within the national park Saxon Switzerland, Germany. With the then calibrated model IPS-SPREADS (Infestation Pattern Simulation Supporting PREdisposition Assessment DetailS), we investigate the impact of different factors such as the distance between beetle source trees and the forest border on the amount of damage within the managed forest stand and test the effectiveness of different levels of sanitation felling and its point of action on reducing the amount of damaged trees. As expected, the results of the model calibration show that the direction of wind plays an important role for the occurring infestation patterns and that bark beetle energy reserve is reduced during mass outbreaks. The results of the second experiment show that the main drivers for the amount of damaged trees are the primary attractiveness and the distance to beetle source trees. Sanitation felling effectiveness is highest when performed near the beetle source trees, with considerably high felling intensities and if there is at least some distance to the managed forest. IPS-SPREADS can be used in future studies as a tool for testing further management measures (e.g., pheromone traps) or to assess the risk for bark beetle infestations of forest areas near to wind-felled or already infested trees.