Faculty Opinions recommendation of Spatially heterogeneous pressure raises risk of catastrophic shifts.

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald DeAngelis ◽  
Simeon Yurek
Keyword(s):  
Catastrophic Shifts

scholarly journals The importance of being coupled: Stable states and catastrophic shifts in tidal biomorphodynamics

2010 ◽  
Vol 115 (F4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Marani ◽  
Andrea D'Alpaos ◽  
Stefano Lanzoni ◽  
Luca Carniello ◽  
Andrea Rinaldo
Keyword(s):  
Stable States ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts

scholarly journals Exploiting delayed transitions to sustain semiarid ecosystems after catastrophic shifts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blai Vidiella, ◽  
Josep Sardanyés ◽  
Ricard V. Solé
Keyword(s):  
Computational Models ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Semiarid Ecosystems ◽  
Intervention Method ◽  
Catastrophic Shift ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Desert Areas ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Potential Shifts ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts

Semiarid ecosystems (including arid, semiarid and dry-subhumid ecosystems) span more than 40% of extant habitats and a similar percentage of human population. As a consequence of global warming, these habitats face future potential shifts towards the desert state characterized by an accelerated loss of diversity and stability leading to collapse. Such possibility has been raised by several mathematical and computational models, along with several early warning signal methods applied to spatial vegetation patterns. Here we show that just after a catastrophic shift has taken place an expected feature is the presence of a ghost, i.e., a delayed extinction associated to the underlying dynamical flows. As a consequence, a system might exhibit for very long times an apparent stationarity hiding in fact an inevitable collapse. Here we explore this problem showing that the ecological ghost is a generic feature of standard models of green-desert transitions including facilitation. If present, the ghost could hide warning signals, since statistical patterns are not be expected to display growing fluctuations over time. We propose and computationally test a novel intervention method based on the restoration of small fractions of desert areas with vegetation as a way to maintain the fragile ecosystem beyond the catastrophic shift caused by a saddle-node bifurcation, taking advantage of the delaying capacity of the ghost just after the bifurcation.

scholarly journals Population dynamics of synthetic Terraformation motifs

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricard V. Solé ◽  
Raúl Montañez ◽  
Salvador Duran Nebreda ◽  
Daniel Rodriguez-Amor ◽  
Blai Vidiella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Ecological Engineering ◽  
Ecological Interactions ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Population Extinction ◽  
Intensive Exploitation ◽  
Engineering Designs ◽  
Synthetic Organisms ◽  
Multiple Stable States ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts

Ecosystems are complex systems, currently experiencing several threats associated with global warming, intensive exploitation, and human-driven habitat degradation. Such threats are pushing ecosystems to the brink of collapse. Because of a general presence of multiple stable states, including states involving population extinction, and due to intrinsic nonlinearities associated with feedback loops, collapse can occur in a catastrophic manner. Such catastrophic shifts have been suggested to pervade many of the future transitions affecting ecosystems at many different scales. Many studies have tried to delineate potential warning signals predicting such ongoing shifts but little is known about how such transitions might be effectively prevented. It has been recently suggested that a potential path to prevent or modify the outcome of these transitions would involve designing synthetic organisms and synthetic ecological interactions that could push these endangered systems out of the critical boundaries. Four classes of such ecological engineering designs orTerraformation motifshave been defined in a qualitative way. Here we develop the simplest mathematical models associated with these motifs, defining the expected stability conditions and domains where the motifs shall properly work.

Self-Organized Patchiness in Asthma as a Prelude to Catastrophic Shifts

PEDIATRICS ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 118 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S27-S28
Author(s):  
A. Thatayatikom
Keyword(s):  
Self Organized ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts

Trichotomous-noise-induced catastrophic shifts in symbiotic ecosystems

2002 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Romi Mankin ◽  
Ain Ainsaar ◽  
Astrid Haljas ◽  
Eerik Reiter
Keyword(s):  
Trichotomous Noise ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts

scholarly journals Trans-heteroclinic bifurcation: a novel type of catastrophic shift

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 171304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Sardanyés ◽  
Regina Martínez ◽  
Carles Simó
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Fixed Points ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Continuous Change ◽  
Heteroclinic Bifurcation ◽  
Mutation Matrix ◽  
Catastrophic Shift ◽  
Smooth Transitions ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts

Global and local bifurcations are extremely important since they govern the transitions between different qualitative regimes in dynamical systems. These transitions or tipping points, which are ubiquitous in nature, can be smooth or catastrophic. Smooth transitions involve a continuous change in the steady state of the system until the bifurcation value is crossed, giving place to a second-order phase transition. Catastrophic transitions involve a discontinuity of the steady state at the bifurcation value, giving place to first-order phase transitions. Examples of catastrophic shifts can be found in ecosystems, climate, economic or social systems. Here we report a new type of global bifurcation responsible for a catastrophic shift. This bifurcation, identified in a family of quasi-species equations and named as trans-heteroclinic bifurcation , involves an exchange of stability between two distant and heteroclinically connected fixed points. Since the two fixed points interchange the stability without colliding, a catastrophic shift takes place. We provide an exhaustive description of this new bifurcation, also detailing the structure of the replication–mutation matrix of the quasi-species equation giving place to this bifurcation. A perturbation analysis is provided around the bifurcation value. At this value the heteroclinic connection is replaced by a line of fixed points in the quasi-species model. But it is shown that, if the replication–mutation matrix satisfies suitable conditions, then, under a small perturbation, the exchange of heteroclinic connections is preserved, except on a tiny range around the bifurcation value whose size is of the order of magnitude of the perturbation. The results presented here can help to understand better novel mechanisms behind catastrophic shifts and contribute to a finer identification of such transitions in theoretical models in evolutionary biology and other dynamical systems.

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