Conceptual Approach to Predict Loan Defaults Using Decision Trees

2019 ◽  
pp. 148-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Muzamil Basha ◽  
Dharmendra Singh Rajput ◽  
N. Ch. S. N. Iyengar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Classification Error ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Decision Tree Classifier ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Tree Classifier ◽  
Loan Defaults

In this chapter, the authors show how to build a decision tree from given real-time data. They interpret the output of decision tree by learning decision tree classifier using really recursive greedy algorithm. Feature selection is made based on classification error using the algorithm called feature split selection algorithm (FSSA), with all different possible stopping conditions for splitting. The authors perform prediction with decision trees using decision tree prediction algorithm (DTPA), followed by multiclass predictions and their probabilities. Finally, they perform splitting procedure on real continuous value input using threshold split selection algorithm (TSSA).

scholarly journals Using T3, an Improved Decision Tree Classifier, for Mining Stroke-related Medical Data

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (05) ◽  
pp. 523-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Saraee ◽  
B. Theodoulidis ◽  
J. A. Keane ◽  
C. Tjortjis
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Medical Data ◽  
Classification Algorithm ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Classification Error ◽  
Decision Tree Classifier ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Tree Classifier

Summary Objectives: Medical data are a valuable resource from which novel and potentially useful knowledge can be discovered by using data mining. Data mining can assist and support medical decision making and enhance clinical managementand investigative research. The objective of this work is to propose a method for building accurate descriptive and predictive models based on classification of past medical data. We also aim to compare this method with other well established data mining methods and identify strengths and weaknesses. Method: We propose T3, a decision tree classifier which builds predictive models based on known classes, by allowing for a certain amount of misclassification error in training in order to achieve better descriptive and predictive accuracy. We then experiment with a real medical data set on stroke, and various subsets, in order to identify strengths and weaknesses. We also compare performance with a very successful and well established decision tree classifier. Results: T3 demonstrated impressive performance when predicting unseen cases of stroke resulting in as little as 0.4% classification error while the state of the art decision tree classifier resulted in 33.6% classification error respectively. Conclusions: This paper presents and evaluates T3, a classification algorithm that builds decision trees of depth at most three, and results in high accuracy whilst keeping the tree size reasonably small. T3 demonstrates strong descriptive and predictive power without compromising simplicity and clarity. We evaluate T3 based on real stroke register data and compare it with C4.5, a well-known classification algorithm, showing that T3 produces significantly more accurate and readable classifiers.

scholarly journals Forest Pruning Based on Branch Importance

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangkui Jiang ◽  
Chang-an Wu ◽  
Huaping Guo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Selection Algorithm ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Ensemble Pruning ◽  
Generalization Ability ◽  
Ensemble Selection ◽  
Novel Strategy

A forest is an ensemble with decision trees as members. This paper proposes a novel strategy to pruning forest to enhance ensemble generalization ability and reduce ensemble size. Unlike conventional ensemble pruning approaches, the proposed method tries to evaluate the importance of branches of trees with respect to the whole ensemble using a novel proposed metric called importance gain. The importance of a branch is designed by considering ensemble accuracy and the diversity of ensemble members, and thus the metric reasonably evaluates how much improvement of the ensemble accuracy can be achieved when a branch is pruned. Our experiments show that the proposed method can significantly reduce ensemble size and improve ensemble accuracy, no matter whether ensembles are constructed by a certain algorithm such as bagging or obtained by an ensemble selection algorithm, no matter whether each decision tree is pruned or unpruned.

scholarly journals PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF BREAST CANCER CLASSIFICATION USING DECISION TREE CLASSIFIERS

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Hamsagayathri ◽  
P. Sampath
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Ductal Carcinoma ◽  
Research Work ◽  
The United States ◽  
Breast Cancer Dataset ◽  
Decision Tree Classifier ◽  
Cancer Dataset ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Tree Classifier

Breast cancer is one of the dangerous cancers among world’s women above 35 y. The breast is made up of lobules that secrete milk and thin milk ducts to carry milk from lobules to the nipple. Breast cancer mostly occurs either in lobules or in milk ducts. The most common type of breast cancer is ductal carcinoma where it starts from ducts and spreads across the lobules and surrounding tissues. According to the medical survey, each year there are about 125.0 per 100,000 new cases of breast cancer are diagnosed and 21.5 per 100,000 women due to this disease in the United States. Also, 246,660 new cases of women with cancer are estimated for the year 2016. Early diagnosis of breast cancer is a key factor for long-term survival of cancer patients. Classification plays an important role in breast cancer detection and used by researchers to analyse and classify the medical data. In this research work, priority-based decision tree classifier algorithm has been implemented for Wisconsin Breast cancer dataset. This paper analyzes the different decision tree classifier algorithms for Wisconsin original, diagnostic and prognostic dataset using WEKA software. The performance of the classifiers are evaluated against the parameters like accuracy, Kappa statistic, Entropy, RMSE, TP Rate, FP Rate, Precision, Recall, F-Measure, ROC, Specificity, Sensitivity.

scholarly journals Student Academic Performance Prediction using Supervised Learning Techniques

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran ◽  
Shahzad Latif ◽  
Danish Mehmood ◽  
Muhammad Saqlain Shah
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Supervised Learning ◽  
Student Performance ◽  
Performance Prediction ◽  
Class Imbalance ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Classification Error ◽  
Decision Tree Classifier ◽  
Tree Classifier

Automatic Student performance prediction is a crucial job due to the large volume of data in educational databases. This job is being addressed by educational data mining (EDM). EDM develop methods for discovering data that is derived from educational environment. These methods are used for understanding student and their learning environment. The educational institutions are often curious that how many students will be pass/fail for necessary arrangements. In previous studies, it has been observed that many researchers have intension on the selection of appropriate algorithm for just classification and ignores the solutions of the problems which comes during data mining phases such as data high dimensionality ,class imbalance and classification error etc. Such types of problems reduced the accuracy of the model. Several well-known classification algorithms are applied in this domain but this paper proposed a student performance prediction model based on supervised learning decision tree classifier. In addition, an ensemble method is applied to improve the performance of the classifier. Ensemble methods approach is designed to solve classification, predictions problems. This study proves the importance of data preprocessing and algorithms fine-tuning tasks to resolve the data quality issues. The experimental dataset used in this work belongs to Alentejo region of Portugal which is obtained from UCI Machine Learning Repository. Three supervised learning algorithms (J48, NNge and MLP) are employed in this study for experimental purposes. The results showed that J48 achieved highest accuracy 95.78% among others.

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