scholarly journals Jet streams anomalies as possible short-term precursors of earthquakes with M>6.0

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Chun Wu ◽  
Ivan N. Tikhonov
Keyword(s):  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Thermal Fields ◽  
Precursors Of Earthquakes ◽  
Short Term Prediction

Satellite data of thermal images revealed the existence of thermal fields, connected with big linear structures and systems of crust faults. The measuring height of outgoing longwave radiation is located to the range of jet stream. This work describes a possible link between strong earthquakes and jet streams in two regions. The front or tail ends of jet groups maintain their position for 6 or more hours in the vicinity of epicenters of strong (<em>M</em>&gt;6.0) earthquakes in 2006-2010. The probability of observing a stationary jet stream behavior is estimated in 93.6% of the cases on one sixhour map and in 26.7% of cases - on two adjacent maps. The median of distribution of distances between epicenters and the relevant positions of jet stream corresponds to 36.5 km. Estimates of cumulative probability of realization of prediction were 24.2% for 10 days, 48.4% for 20 days, 66.1% for 30 days, 87.1% for 40 days, 93.5% for 50 days and 100% during 70 days. The observed precursory effects are of considerable interest for possible use for real short-term prediction of earthquakes.

scholarly journals Analysis of the efficiency of earthquake prediction based on the anomalous behavior of ionospheric parameters on the eve of earthquakes in the Kamchatka region

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 03001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim Bogdanov ◽  
Aleksey Pavlov
Keyword(s):  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbances ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Perturbed State ◽  
Kamchatka Region ◽  
Spread F ◽  
Short Term Prediction

A method is presented for short-term prediction of strong earthquakes, in which the precursors are considered the excess of current values of foF2 critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer over the median values in periods of perturbed state of the magnetosphere, the appearance of ionospheric disturbances: K-layer, Es-spread F-spread, the stratification of the F2 layer, Es is the r type. As predicted earthquakes were considered earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 5:0. Assessment of the effectiveness of the forecast was carried out in the spring and autumn periods for 2013–2017 according to the methods of A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan. It is shown that the method under consideration has the best prognostic efficiency for seismic events with M ≥ 6:5 magnitude.

Short-Term Basin-Scale Streamflow Forecasting Using Large-Scale Coupled Atmospheric–Oceanic Circulation and Local Outgoing Longwave Radiation

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 370-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajib Maity ◽  
S. S. Kashid
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Complex Relationship ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Basin Scale

Abstract This paper investigates the use of large-scale circulation patterns (El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation), local outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and previous streamflow information for short-term (weekly) basin-scale streamflow forecasting. To model the complex relationship between these inputs and basin-scale streamflow, an artificial intelligence approach—genetic programming (GP)—has been employed. Research findings of this study indicate that the use of large-scale atmospheric circulation information and streamflow at previous time steps, along with OLR as a local meteorological input, potentially improves the performance of weekly basin-scale streamflow prediction. The genetic programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the weekly streamflow and various inputs. Different input variable combinations were explored to come up with the best one. The observed and predicted streamflows were found to correspond well with each other with a coefficient of determination of 0.653 (correlation coefficient r = 0.808), which may appear attractive for such a complex system.

scholarly journals A martingale-based temporal analysis of pre-earthquake anomalies at Jiuzhaigou, China, in the period of 2009-2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 131 ◽  
pp. 01072
Author(s):  
Ling Lin ◽  
Xiangzeng Kong ◽  
Nan Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Algorithm Analysis ◽  
Martingale Theory ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
The Relationship

Many studies on the relationship between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data observed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Satellites (NOAA) with strong earthquakes are based on a certain zone or a couple of earthquakes. But it’s hard to know if the algorithm works by looking at just one earthquake. In this paper, after algorithm analysis of OLR signals based on martingale theory during the 10 years from 2009 to 2018, a time series analysis of re-anomaly screening for the 10 years’ data is proposed. The experimental results show that this method can be more effective in the statistical analysis of historical data and further improve the reliability of prediction.

scholarly journals Short-term earthquake forecast

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-99
Author(s):  
Vladislav Voleysho
Keyword(s):  
Electromagnetic Field ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Source Zone ◽  
Seismogenic Structure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Short Term Prediction

In the manuscript, a tectonomagnetic model of forming the source zone of a strong earthquake is presented from the position of the electromagnetic field of Earth. The model is based on the idea of magnetic interaction between geological blocks screening, when the bond to each other by adhesion, a flux of abyssal fluids with the formation of a seismogenic structure. The source zone of strong earthquakes formed inside the seismogenic structure is followed by the development of an anomalous electromagnetic field. The existence of the deterministic cause-and-effect relationship between anomalous electromagnetic field inside the formed earthquake source and a change in atmospheric pressure determines the possibilities of conducting short-term prediction of time, place, and force of the earthquake. Registration of the earthquake source zone by barometric method during hydrogeodynamic monitoring makes it possible to make short-term predictions of it by time, place, and force. The substantiation and examples are given for short-term prediction of time, geographical location, and force of strong earthquakes in basic seismically active regions of Russia.

Development of a Technique for Short-Term Prediction of Hydrometeors Using Advection and Physical Forcing.

1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory S. Forbes ◽  
John J. Cahir ◽  
Paul B. Dorian ◽  
Walter D. Lottes ◽  
Kathy Chapman
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Physical Forcing ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Short Term Prediction
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