The Seismogenic Structure of the 2017 Mw 6.9 Milin, Tibet, Earthquake: A Possible Newly Active Fault at the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis

On 18 November 2017, an Mw 6.9 earthquake occurred in Milin, Tibet, with the epicenter at the top of the Namche Barwa syntaxis. This event did not produce surface ruptures, and its seismogenic structure remains unclear or controversial. Using the locations of the Milin mainshock and aftershocks, locations of regional small earthquakes and focal mechanism solutions from 2007 to 2009, this work analyzed the causative fault and tectonic setting of the Milin earthquake and assessed the regional seismic risk. The results suggest that the seismogenic structure of the Milin earthquake was a secondary fault, the southern branch of the XiXingla fault (XXLF). Within 28 hr after the mainshock, the aftershocks of the Milin event spread northeastward to the secondary north branch fault of the XXLF and the secondary south branch fault of the Palong–Pangxin fault. Across the top of the Namche Barwa syntaxis (Namche Barwa block) and the Chayu block in the southeast, an earthquake dense belt (EDB) has developed. This EDB has similar deep structures beneath the two blocks, in which several northeast-dipping structural planes exit, and different portions of the EDB imply a unified tectonic stress field. Combining these data with the foreshock–mainshock–aftershock data for the 1950 Mw 8.6 Chayu, Tibet, earthquake, we speculate that the structural planes produced by the EDB at depth in the two blocks have already been connected or tended to connect, resulting in a new fault system trending northwest and approximately 280 km long. The 2017 Mw 6.9 Milin earthquake occurred at the northwestern end of this fault system. At present, the development stage, maturity, and fine structure of this new fault system remain unclear but should receive additional attention. Based on its maximum rupture area, this new fault system is capable of generating an Mw 7.7 earthquake in the future.

Focal Mechanism and Seismogenic Structure of the MS 5.1 Qingbaijiang Earthquake on February 3, 2020, Southwestern China

The 3 February 2020 MS 5.1 Qingbaijiang earthquake, southwestern China, is the closest recorded MS ≥ 5.0 event to downtown Chengdu City to date, with an epicentral distance of only 38 km. Here we analyze seismic data from the Sichuan and Chengdu regional seismic networks, and employ a multi-stage location method to relocate the earthquakes that have occurred along the central and northern segments of the Longquanshan fault zone since 2009, including the MS 5.1 Qingbaijiang earthquake sequence, to investigate the seismogenic structure of the region. The relocation results indicate that the seismicity along the central and northern segments of the Longquanshan fault zone has occurred mainly along the eastern branch since 2009, with the hypocentral distribution along a vertical cross-section illustrating a steep, NW-dipping parallel imbricate structure. The terminating depth of the eastern branch is about 12 km. The distribution of the MS 5.1 Qingbaijiang earthquake sequence is along the NE–SW-striking Longquanshan fault zone. The aftershock focal depths are in the 3–6 km range, with the mainshock located at 104.475°E, 30.73°N. Its initial rupture depth of 5.2 km indicates that the earthquake occurred above the shallow decollement layer of the upper crust in this region. The hypocentral distribution along the long axis of the aftershock area highlights that this earthquake sequence occurred along a fault dipping at 56° to the NW. Our surface projection of the inferred fault plane places it near the eastern branch of the Longquanshan fault zone. We infer the MS 5.1 mainshock to be a thrust faulting event based on the focal mechanism solution via the cut-and-paste waveform inversion method, with strike/dip/rake parameters of 22°/36°/91° and 200°/54°/89° obtained for nodal planes I and II, respectively. We identify that the seismogenic fault of the MS 5.1 Qingbaijiang earthquake lies along the eastern branch of the Longquanshan fault zone, and nodal plane II represents the coseismic rupture plane, based on a joint analysis of the event relocation results, mainshock focal mechanism, and regional geological information. Our study provides vital information for assessing the seismic hazard of the Longquanshan fault zone near Chengdu City.

The 2020 M6.4 Jiashi Earthquake: An Event that Occurred Under the Décollement on the Kaping Fold-and-Thrust Belt in the Southwestern Tien Shan Mountains, China

The 2020 Jiashi M6.4 earthquake occurred in the Kaping fold-and-thrust belt, a major south-verging active thin-skin system in the southwestern Chinese Tien Shan Mountain, north of the Tarim Basin. Within 50 km from the epicentral area, seismic hazard is high, as suggested by the occurrence of the 1902 Mw 7.7 Artux (Kashgar) earthquake and 1997 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm. The seismogenic structure responsible for the 2020 event is not well constrained and is a subject of debate. We relocated the 2020 Jiashi earthquake sequence and assessed the relocation uncertainties, using eight seismic velocity models and based on detailed local and regional subcrustal structures from seismic profiles. Then we compared the temporal variation in the Gutenberg–Richter b-values of the 2020 sequence with those of the 1997, 1998, and 2003 earthquake sequences. Our results show that most events cluster at depths greater than 10 km, suggesting that the events most likely occurred beneath the décollement and inside the Tarim Craton. The spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence suggests that two groups of structures at depth were involved in the 2020 sequences: NW–SE-trending lateral strike-slip faults and E–W-trending reverse faults. The b-values of the 2020 sequence exhibits relatively stable temporal evolution, unlike those of the multi-shock sequence that occurred inside the Tarim Craton. It indicates that the 2020 sequence perhaps was influenced by the stress interaction with the 10 km thick overlying strata. Our study provides a new perspective on the seismogenic structure of the earthquakes that occurred because of reactivation of ancient structures developed in a stable craton.

Short-term earthquake forecast

In the manuscript, a tectonomagnetic model of forming the source zone of a strong earthquake is presented from the position of the electromagnetic field of Earth. The model is based on the idea of magnetic interaction between geological blocks screening, when the bond to each other by adhesion, a flux of abyssal fluids with the formation of a seismogenic structure. The source zone of strong earthquakes formed inside the seismogenic structure is followed by the development of an anomalous electromagnetic field. The existence of the deterministic cause-and-effect relationship between anomalous electromagnetic field inside the formed earthquake source and a change in atmospheric pressure determines the possibilities of conducting short-term prediction of time, place, and force of the earthquake. Registration of the earthquake source zone by barometric method during hydrogeodynamic monitoring makes it possible to make short-term predictions of it by time, place, and force. The substantiation and examples are given for short-term prediction of time, geographical location, and force of strong earthquakes in basic seismically active regions of Russia.

The 2020 Mw 6.0 Jiashi Earthquake: A Fold Earthquake Event in the Southern Tian Shan, Northwest China

The complexity of the coseismic rupture process of active thrust faults and the limitation of the 3D geometry of the fault plane play important roles in seismic risk assessment. The 2020 Mw 6.0 Jiashi earthquake is an example of seismic events that have occurred in the Kepingtage fold-and-thrust belt (FTB) in the southern Tian Shan belt. Integrated analysis of surface geology, topography, and seismic reflection profiles has delineated the surface and subsurface geometries of the Keping thrust fault (KPT). Combined with the focal mechanism, seismic reflection profiles, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar coseismic deformation, we are able to reveal the seismogenic structure of this earthquake. The Jiashi event was mainly a horizontal compression deformation; the sliding distribution was concentrated at a depth of 4–6 km, and the fault-slip angle was ∼15°. Our results show that the seismogenic structure of the Jiashi event was the KPT at the leading edge of the Kepingtage FTB. The fault plane is separated at depth by a horizontal detachment, with an upper (∼30°) and lower (∼15°) ramp. The coseismic rupture of the Jiashi event was constrained within the lower ramp. This event is a good example that readily explains why the Kepingtage FTB is characterized by moderate-magnitude (Mw 6.0–6.5) events.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan: TEM PSHA2020

The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) published the first version of the Taiwan probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (named TEM PSHA2015) 5 years ago. For updating to the TEM PSHA2020, we considered an updated seismogenic structure database, including the structures newly identified with 3D geometry, an earthquake catalog made current to 2016, state-of-the-art seismic models, a new set of ground motion prediction equations, and site amplification factors. In addition to earthquakes taking place on each individual seismogenic structure, the updated seismic model included the possibility of an earthquake occurring on multiple structures. To include fault memory for illustrating activity on seismogenic structure sources, we incorporated the Brownian passage time model. For the crustal seismicity that cannot be attributed to any specific structure, we implemented both area source and smoothing kernel models. A new set of ground motion prediction equations is incorporated. In addition to the calculation of hazard at engineering bedrock, our assessment included site amplification factors that competent authorities of governments and private companies could use to implement hazard prevention and reduction strategies.